Energy
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Crude oil so far: the WTI spot price at Cushing, Oklahoma, from the US Energy Information Administration via FRED, daily from 1986, with close-to-close fills and costs on every trade. A spot price, not a futures contract or an ETF: the roll between contracts is not included.
01The tests
| Test | Instrument and data | Variants tried | Passed every gate | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil Trend Following: 200-Day Average and 12-Month Momentum on 40 Years of WTI | WTI crude oil spot (EIA via FRED), daily | 4 | 0 | Buried · Fragile |
4 variants tried across 1 full write-up, 0 passed every gate. Verdicts follow the protocol: Buried means at least one gate failed; “No proven edge” means a statistically convincing edge was not demonstrated, not that none exists.
02How these were tested
The WTI crude oil spot price at Cushing, Oklahoma (EIA, via FRED, series DCOILWTICO), daily from 2 January 1986; days without a price are skipped, never filled, and the negative price of 20 April 2020 is kept. The file has one close a day, so signals use the close and trades fill at the next close. Every round trip costs 0.05% of the price. A spot price: futures and oil ETFs also earn or pay the roll between contracts, which is not included.
03What is not here yet
Crude oil futures (CL) with their roll, Brent, natural gas, the weekly EIA inventory report and intraday oil rules.