Futures

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Exchange-traded futures: the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) and the E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ), and gold futures (GC) in one test, from 1-minute data 2020 to September 2026, with real per-trade costs (about $31 on ES, $16 on NQ). YM and crude futures are not tested yet.

01The tests

Compare three published day-trading rules across markets: Intraday momentum strategies from 3 research papers, backtested on ES, NQ, gold and Bitcoin.

TestInstrument and dataVariants triedPassed every gateVerdict
The RSI(2) Dip BuyerES futures40Buried · Fragile
SupertrendES futures80Buried · No proven edge
Bollinger Band ReversalES futures40Buried · Fragile
Donchian Channel BreakoutES futures40Buried · No proven edge
RSI DivergenceES futures40Buried · No proven edge
MACD CrossoverES futures40Buried · No proven edge
Golden Cross Backtest: Daily Bars on S&P 500 Futures & GoldES futures + XAUUSD spot (daily bars)80Inconclusive · Too few trades
Golden Cross Backtest: 1H Bars on S&P 500 Futures & GoldES futures + XAUUSD spot (1-hour bars)240Inconclusive · Data quality
Coppock Curve Backtest: 1H Bars on S&P 500 FuturesES futures (1-hour bars)120Buried · No proven edge
EMA 9/21 Crossover Backtest: 1H Bars on ES, NQ & Gold FuturesES, NQ and GC futures (1-hour bars)120Buried · No proven edge
EMA 5/8/13 Ribbon Backtest: Nasdaq-100 Futures, 5- and 15-Minute BarsNQ futures (5- and 15-minute bars, US session)80Buried · No proven edge
Intraday Momentum Backtest: First to Last Half-Hour on ES FuturesES futures (1-minute bars, US session)40Buried · No proven edge
Intraday Momentum Backtest: First to Last Half-Hour on NQ FuturesNQ futures (1-minute bars, US session)40Buried · No proven edge
Noise Area Breakout Backtest: ES Futures, Asia, London and New YorkES futures (1-minute bars)60Buried · No proven edge
Noise Area Breakout Backtest: NQ Futures, Asia, London and New YorkNQ futures (1-minute bars)62Survived · Needs new data
VWAP Strategy Backtest: ES Futures, 5-Minute Bars, 2020 to 2026ES futures (1-minute bars)30Buried · No proven edge
9 EMA Strategy Backtest: NQ Futures, 5- and 15-Minute Bars, 2020 to 2026NQ futures (1-minute bars)30Buried · No proven edge
Google AI's Fibonacci Scalping Strategy, Backtested: ES Futures, 1- and 5-Minute Bars, 2020 to 2026ES futures (1-minute bars)40Buried · No proven edge
Sneaky Pivot Strategy Backtest: Previous Day High and Low Reversal on Dow FuturesYM (Dow) futures, 15-minute bars from 1-minute data40Buried · No proven edge
Trendline Trading Strategy Backtest: Do Trendline Breakouts Work? (Dow Futures)YM (Dow) futures, 1-hour bars from 1-minute data40Buried · No proven edge
NR7 Trading Strategy Backtest: Does the Narrow Range Breakout Work on ES Futures?ES futures, 1-minute30Buried · No proven edge
Gap Fill Strategy Backtest: Do ES Opening Gaps Fill? 6 Years of S&P 500 FuturesES futures, 1-minute30Buried · Costs
Initial Balance Breakout on ES Futures: Does It Hold Up on the S&P 500?ES futures, 1-minute30Buried · No proven edge
Initial Balance Breakout Strategy: Tested on 6 Years of NQ FuturesNQ futures, 1-minute30Buried · No proven edge
This Scalping Strategy Works Every Day? The First 5-Minute Candle + Fair Value Gap, Tested on 6 Years of NQNQ futures, 1-minute20Buried · No proven edge
Opening Range Breakout Backtest: The 5-Minute ORB on NQ Futures, 2020 to 2026NQ futures (1-minute bars, US session)40Buried · Fragile

148 variants tried across 26 full write-ups, 2 passed every gate. Verdicts follow the protocol: Buried means at least one gate failed; “No proven edge” means a statistically convincing edge was not demonstrated, not that none exists.

02How these were tested

Real exchange-traded futures: ES (E-mini S&P 500), NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) and, in one test, gold futures (GC), from NinjaTrader 1-minute history, 2020 to September 2026, back-adjusted; the tests use 1-minute to daily bars. Costs: commission plus one tick of slippage on every fill, about $31 per round trip on ES, $16 on NQ and $26 on GC. The final period of each test is held out, but the same data appeared in earlier tests, so that holdout is flagged as already used.

03What is not here yet

Intraday history for YM and crude (CL) futures, which we would need to export from the trading platform. The golden cross on a longer index history or pooled across several futures markets (the ES sample alone is too short). Anything on micro contracts.