Accumulation/Distribution on Bitcoin, 4-hour bars (spec ad_spec.md). Run 2026-10-22T09:37:03.801Z; 500 control runs per variant. 0.05% a fill; signals on the bar close, executed at the next bar's open.
data: 4789278 minutes 2017-08-17 04:00 .. 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC; 19968 used 4-hour bars, 19702 from 1 Oct 2017; swing lows 1269, swing highs 1301; divergences (live) 364: 230 bullish, 134 bearish; zero-volume bars 0
buy and hold from 1 Oct 2017 (open 4378.49) to the last close (83623.6): x19.10

=== AD-DIV: divergence between price swings and A/D, stop at the swing, target 2R, out after 30 slots ===
  DEV      n= 122 net +35.9%  avg +0.294%  PF 1.12 t 0.46
  VAL      n= 102 net +25.4%  avg +0.249%  PF 1.17 t 0.61
  HOLDOUT  n=  92 net +32.2%  avg +0.350%  PF 1.26 t 0.92
  ALL      n=316 net +93.5% (sum of trades) avg +0.296% a trade (gross +0.396%); PF 1.17 t 0.98; compound x1.640 vs buy and hold x19.10; drawdown on closed trades (sum) -85.2%
  winners 41.1% (95% 35.9-46.6%); days held mean 2.80 median 2.60; time in the market 27.0%; without the 10 best -80.4%; with 10%/yr funding avg +0.219%
  ended by time 108 (34.2%), stop 143 (45.3%), target 64 (20.3%), end of data 1 (0.3%)
  longs n=197 net +33.1% | shorts n=119 net +60.4%
  by year (n, net): 2017 7 +26.7% | 2018 32 +30.8% | 2019 29 +3.0% | 2020 30 +19.8% | 2021 41 +3.7% | 2022 41 -8.4% | 2023 44 -14.2% | 2024 33 +29.1% | 2025 36 -14.2% | 2026 23 +17.3%
  control (trades shifted by whole days, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 314.69, median avg +0.031%, 5-95% -0.495% .. +0.559%; real avg +0.296% at percentile 77.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.17
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 122 / 102 / 92
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 0.46
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 77.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -80.4%
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net +32.2% PF 1.26
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)
  rule 3: 9 trades open over a data gap of 60+ minutes; without them avg +0.329%, gates 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== AD-MA: A/D crossing its 20-bar average, always in ===
  DEV      n= 944 net +209.7%  avg +0.222%  PF 1.16 t 1.09
  VAL      n= 800 net -26.8%  avg -0.034%  PF 0.96 t -0.28
  HOLDOUT  n= 709 net -36.5%  avg -0.052%  PF 0.94 t -0.46
  ALL      n=2453 net +146.4% (sum of trades) avg +0.060% a trade (gross +0.160%); PF 1.06 t 0.64; compound x0.464 vs buy and hold x19.10; drawdown on closed trades (sum) -174.0%
  winners 30.9% (95% 29.1-32.8%); days held mean 1.34 median 0.50; time in the market 99.9%; without the 10 best -262.0%; with 10%/yr funding avg +0.023%
  ended by reversal 2452 (100.0%), end of data 1 (0.0%)
  longs n=1226 net +335.6% | shorts n=1227 net -189.3%
  by year (n, net): 2017 52 +48.1% | 2018 255 -13.2% | 2019 262 +71.4% | 2020 211 +173.5% | 2021 323 -83.4% | 2022 316 -7.5% | 2023 325 -6.0% | 2024 252 +0.8% | 2025 249 -23.6% | 2026 208 -13.7%
  control (trades shifted by whole days, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 2450.02, median avg -0.045%, 5-95% -0.189% .. +0.074%; real avg +0.060% at percentile 93.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.96
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 944 / 800 / 709
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 1.09
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 93.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -262.0%
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -36.5% PF 0.94
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 28 trades open over a data gap of 60+ minutes; without them avg -0.012%, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== AD-CHO: Chaikin oscillator crossing zero, always in ===
  DEV      n= 846 net +235.3%  avg +0.278%  PF 1.18 t 1.30
  VAL      n= 699 net -23.6%  avg -0.034%  PF 0.97 t -0.25
  HOLDOUT  n= 686 net -54.3%  avg -0.079%  PF 0.92 t -0.67
  ALL      n=2231 net +157.5% (sum of trades) avg +0.071% a trade (gross +0.171%); PF 1.06 t 0.72; compound x0.563 vs buy and hold x19.10; drawdown on closed trades (sum) -184.5%
  winners 32.2% (95% 30.3-34.2%); days held mean 1.47 median 0.83; time in the market 99.9%; without the 10 best -212.0%; with 10%/yr funding avg +0.030%
  ended by reversal 2230 (100.0%), end of data 1 (0.0%)
  longs n=1115 net +336.5% | shorts n=1116 net -179.1%
  by year (n, net): 2017 50 +63.7% | 2018 231 +10.6% | 2019 238 +62.3% | 2020 195 +141.1% | 2021 267 -62.1% | 2022 254 +25.0% | 2023 310 -28.8% | 2024 261 -8.5% | 2025 237 -36.5% | 2026 188 -9.2%
  control (trades shifted by whole days, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 2228.42, median avg -0.042%, 5-95% -0.192% .. +0.089%; real avg +0.071% at percentile 92.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.97
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 846 / 699 / 686
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 1.30
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 92.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -212.0%
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -54.3% PF 0.92
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 29 trades open over a data gap of 60+ minutes; without them avg -0.003%, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)