Accumulation/Distribution on SPY, daily, long only (spec adspy_spec.md). Run 2026-10-22T10:08:56.034Z; 500 control runs per variant. Total return while invested, 0.04% a round trip (scenario 0.10%), signals at the close, fills at the next open.
data: 8489 days 1993-01-29 .. 2026-10-20; swing lows 507; bullish divergences (from day 60) 80
rule 3: daily data from one source with no gap days found; no hole check applies (stated).
reference curves from 1993-11-11: buy and hold x29.77 (CAGR 10.9%, worst drawdown -55.2%); 200-day rule x16.37 (CAGR 8.9%, worst drawdown -24.6%, invested 75.0%)

=== ADS-DIV: bullish divergence, stop at the swing low, target 2R, out after 30 days ===
  DEV      n=  32 net +8.1%  avg +0.252%  PF 1.14 t 0.30
  VAL      n=  24 net -3.4%  avg -0.140%  PF 0.93 t -0.15
  HOLDOUT  n=  20 net +7.9%  avg +0.395%  PF 1.21 t 0.34
  ALL      n=76 net +12.6% (sum of trades) avg +0.166% a trade (gross +0.206%); PF 1.09 t 0.31; at 0.10% cost avg +0.106%
  winners 47.4% (95% 36.5-58.4%); days held median 26; ended by stop 35, time 30, target 11; without the 10 best -68.7%
  strategy with cash from 1993-11-11: x2.11 (CAGR 2.3%, worst drawdown -27.2%, invested 16.9%) against buy and hold x29.77 and the 200-day rule x16.37
  by year (n, net): 1993 3 -0.6% | 1994 4 -2.2% | 1995 1 +3.4% | 1997 2 +9.2% | 1998 6 +15.5% | 1999 3 +1.2% | 2000 4 -11.2% | 2001 3 -10.2% | 2002 2 -0.6% | 2003 1 -5.2% | 2004 2 +9.8% | 2005 1 -1.1% | 2006 1 +2.7% | 2007 3 -1.5% | 2008 3 -0.1% | 2009 2 -15.6% | 2010 2 -0.1% | 2011 3 +4.7% | 2012 3 -0.6% | 2013 2 +6.7% | 2015 5 +0.3% | 2016 2 +4.8% | 2017 1 +0.8% | 2018 2 -4.4% | 2020 2 +14.4% | 2021 1 +4.1% | 2022 6 -8.1% | 2023 2 +8.2% | 2025 2 -7.3% | 2026 2 -4.5%
  control (holding periods shifted, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 75.81, median avg +0.756%, 5-95% +0.122% .. +1.467%; real avg +0.166% at percentile 6.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.93
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 32 / 24 / 20
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 0.30
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 6.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -68.7%
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net +7.9% PF 1.21
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)

=== ADS-MA: A/D crossing its 20-day average, long or cash ===
  DEV      n= 201 net +46.4%  avg +0.231%  PF 1.25 t 1.08
  VAL      n= 155 net -44.0%  avg -0.284%  PF 0.78 t -1.05
  HOLDOUT  n= 154 net +65.0%  avg +0.422%  PF 1.46 t 1.49
  ALL      n=510 net +67.4% (sum of trades) avg +0.132% a trade (gross +0.172%); PF 1.13 t 0.91; at 0.10% cost avg +0.072%
  winners 37.8% (95% 33.7-42.1%); days held median 4; ended by cross 510; without the 10 best -47.4%
  strategy with cash from 1993-11-11: x1.96 (CAGR 2.1%, worst drawdown -61.3%, invested 67.9%) against buy and hold x29.77 and the 200-day rule x16.37
  by year (n, net): 1993 13 +0.5% | 1994 12 +1.7% | 1995 6 +26.0% | 1996 12 +19.4% | 1997 20 +0.0% | 1998 19 +14.7% | 1999 18 -9.5% | 2000 24 -20.5% | 2001 20 -0.3% | 2002 18 -18.5% | 2003 12 +19.2% | 2004 13 +7.9% | 2005 14 +5.8% | 2006 15 +3.0% | 2007 13 -3.6% | 2008 28 -62.3% | 2009 17 -1.9% | 2010 14 +16.5% | 2011 15 -6.8% | 2012 13 +5.1% | 2013 11 +11.8% | 2014 9 +8.6% | 2015 20 -14.6% | 2016 14 +7.6% | 2017 13 +13.8% | 2018 11 +0.2% | 2019 12 +12.6% | 2020 24 -8.2% | 2021 14 +10.3% | 2022 18 -23.0% | 2023 11 +35.1% | 2024 7 +13.6% | 2025 17 +0.4% | 2026 13 +2.5%
  control (holding periods shifted, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 509.27, median avg +0.461%, 5-95% +0.330% .. +0.597%; real avg +0.132% at percentile 0.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.78
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 201 / 155 / 154
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 1.08
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 0.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -47.4%
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net +65.0% PF 1.46
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)

=== ADS-CHO: Chaikin oscillator crossing zero, long or cash ===
  DEV      n= 191 net +21.9%  avg +0.115%  PF 1.10 t 0.48
  VAL      n= 133 net -18.7%  avg -0.141%  PF 0.89 t -0.47
  HOLDOUT  n= 131 net +51.9%  avg +0.396%  PF 1.35 t 1.21
  ALL      n=455 net +55.1% (sum of trades) avg +0.121% a trade (gross +0.161%); PF 1.10 t 0.74; at 0.10% cost avg +0.061%
  winners 39.6% (95% 35.2-44.1%); days held median 7; ended by cross 455; without the 10 best -54.2%
  strategy with cash from 1993-11-11: x1.74 (CAGR 1.7%, worst drawdown -56.6%, invested 67.0%) against buy and hold x29.77 and the 200-day rule x16.37
  by year (n, net): 1993 13 +0.3% | 1994 15 -1.6% | 1995 9 +20.6% | 1996 12 +15.9% | 1997 19 +1.0% | 1998 16 +16.9% | 1999 17 -11.0% | 2000 19 -20.7% | 2001 20 -13.0% | 2002 15 -22.3% | 2003 10 +20.2% | 2004 12 +10.3% | 2005 14 +5.4% | 2006 11 +2.9% | 2007 11 +6.7% | 2008 19 -42.6% | 2009 15 -7.8% | 2010 11 +16.4% | 2011 15 -10.4% | 2012 10 +15.2% | 2013 10 +7.2% | 2014 9 +11.5% | 2015 22 -17.7% | 2016 14 +4.2% | 2017 8 +12.7% | 2018 12 +0.7% | 2019 12 +15.8% | 2020 18 -6.6% | 2021 10 +15.5% | 2022 17 -23.3% | 2023 9 +19.3% | 2024 9 +18.5% | 2025 12 -6.1% | 2026 10 +1.2%
  control (holding periods shifted, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 454.30, median avg +0.508%, 5-95% +0.364% .. +0.673%; real avg +0.121% at percentile 0.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.89
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 191 / 133 / 131
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 0.48
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 0.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -54.2%
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net +51.9% PF 1.35
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)