Gold at night, gold by day (spec gn_spec.md): day = 08:20-13:30 New York, night = 13:30-08:20. Run 2026-10-21T10:33:46.806Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in % of the entry price per trade; cost $0.3 an ounce a round trip. data: 7067434 minutes 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (clock corrected) === GN-NIGHT-L: long 13:30 -> 08:20 next trading morning === DEV n= 2157 net 52.64% avg 0.0244% PF 1.08 t 1.27 VAL n= 1801 net -18.08% avg -0.0100% PF 0.96 t -0.64 HOLDOUT n= 1746 net 110.63% avg 0.0634% PF 1.25 t 3.16 ALL n=5704 sum 145.19% avg 0.0255% (gross 0.0515%, cost 0.0260% a trade); $ per ounce 3452.87; PF 1.10 t 2.37; gross t 4.80 winners 2976/5704 = 52.2% (95% Wilson 50.9-53.5%); without the 10 best 101.10%; financing A sum 79.70%, B (today's swap) sum -248.19% by year (n, net sum %, gross sum %): 2004 135 -2.79 7.00 | 2005 245 -9.25 7.36 | 2006 245 6.69 18.91 | 2007 255 13.37 24.45 | 2008 256 11.32 20.18 | 2009 256 17.64 25.60 | 2010 254 11.83 18.10 | 2011 256 17.48 22.41 | 2012 255 -13.64 -9.05 | 2013 257 -22.84 -17.32 | 2014 256 -5.88 0.19 | 2015 256 -8.98 -2.34 | 2016 259 12.48 18.72 | 2017 257 3.49 9.62 | 2018 258 -5.44 0.67 | 2019 258 9.09 14.67 | 2020 259 19.77 24.18 | 2021 258 -4.20 0.10 | 2022 258 -5.40 -1.09 | 2023 257 10.99 14.96 | 2024 259 27.13 30.41 | 2025 258 49.30 51.59 | 2026 197 13.04 14.35 by weekday of entry (n, net sum %, gross sum %): Sun 40 -1.26 0.78 | Mon 1131 -3.79 25.42 | Tue 1154 34.90 65.16 | Wed 1150 17.16 47.21 | Thu 1142 55.81 85.54 | Fri 1087 42.37 69.57 control (same days and lengths, start moved by a random number of minutes, 500 runs, 6 s): mean trades 5321.31, median avg 0.0126%, 5-95% -0.0023 .. 0.0271%; real avg 0.0255% at percentile 90.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.96 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2157 / 1801 / 1746 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 1.27 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 90.60 [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 101.10% [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 110.63% PF 1.25 VERDICT Buried (3/6 gates) rule 3: 1584 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.0325%, gates passed 4/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === GN-DAY-S: short 08:20 -> 13:30 === DEV n= 2126 net -84.01% avg -0.0395% PF 0.87 t -2.12 VAL n= 1792 net -9.54% avg -0.0053% PF 0.98 t -0.38 HOLDOUT n= 1743 net 0.03% avg 0.0000% PF 1.00 t 0.00 ALL n=5661 sum -93.52% avg -0.0165% (gross 0.0093%, cost 0.0259% a trade); $ per ounce -56.73; PF 0.94 t -1.67; gross t 0.95 winners 2682/5661 = 47.4% (95% Wilson 46.1-48.7%); without the 10 best -141.20%; financing A sum -93.52%, B (today's swap) sum -91.70% by year (n, net sum %, gross sum %): 2004 126 -11.63 -2.47 | 2005 233 -20.86 -5.03 | 2006 239 -4.80 7.10 | 2007 254 -14.12 -3.08 | 2008 255 5.14 13.97 | 2009 255 -7.04 0.89 | 2010 253 -15.38 -9.14 | 2011 256 4.42 9.35 | 2012 255 -19.76 -15.16 | 2013 256 8.94 14.44 | 2014 255 -3.84 2.21 | 2015 252 2.81 9.34 | 2016 258 3.48 9.69 | 2017 257 -10.20 -4.07 | 2018 257 -3.04 3.05 | 2019 257 -7.69 -2.13 | 2020 258 -6.04 -1.64 | 2021 258 1.40 5.70 | 2022 258 -7.97 -3.66 | 2023 257 -1.48 2.49 | 2024 259 1.71 4.99 | 2025 257 -3.73 -1.44 | 2026 196 16.14 17.44 by weekday of entry (n, net sum %, gross sum %): Mon 1131 -15.20 14.01 | Tue 1151 -6.55 23.64 | Wed 1150 -27.85 2.19 | Thu 1142 -14.44 15.29 | Fri 1087 -29.48 -2.29 control (same days and lengths, start moved by a random number of minutes, 500 runs, 5 s): mean trades 5213.56, median avg -0.0392%, 5-95% -0.0554 .. -0.0147%; real avg -0.0165% at percentile 89.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.98 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2126 / 1792 / 1743 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -2.12 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 89.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -141.20% [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 0.03% PF 1.00 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 147 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.0141%, gates passed 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === GN-LS: long 13:30 -> 08:20, short 08:20 -> 13:30 === DEV n= 4283 net -31.36% avg -0.0073% PF 0.98 t -0.55 VAL n= 3593 net -27.62% avg -0.0077% PF 0.97 t -0.73 HOLDOUT n= 3489 net 110.65% avg 0.0317% PF 1.12 t 2.39 ALL n=11365 sum 51.67% avg 0.0045% (gross 0.0305%, cost 0.0259% a trade); $ per ounce 3396.14; PF 1.02 t 0.62; gross t 4.18 winners 5658/11365 = 49.8% (95% Wilson 48.9-50.7%); without the 10 best -2.21%; financing A sum -13.82%, B (today's swap) sum -339.89% longs (nights) n=5704 sum 145.19% gross 293.68% | shorts (days) n=5661 sum -93.52% gross 52.84% by year (n, net sum %, gross sum %): 2004 261 -14.42 4.54 | 2005 478 -30.11 2.34 | 2006 484 1.89 26.01 | 2007 509 -0.75 21.37 | 2008 511 16.46 34.15 | 2009 511 10.61 26.49 | 2010 507 -3.54 8.96 | 2011 512 21.90 31.75 | 2012 510 -33.40 -24.22 | 2013 513 -13.90 -2.88 | 2014 511 -9.72 2.40 | 2015 508 -6.17 7.00 | 2016 517 15.96 28.42 | 2017 514 -6.71 5.55 | 2018 515 -8.48 3.72 | 2019 515 1.40 12.54 | 2020 517 13.73 22.54 | 2021 516 -2.80 5.81 | 2022 516 -13.37 -4.75 | 2023 514 9.50 17.45 | 2024 518 28.84 35.41 | 2025 515 45.57 50.15 | 2026 393 29.17 31.79 by weekday of entry (n, net sum %, gross sum %): Sun 40 -1.26 0.78 | Mon 2262 -18.98 39.43 | Tue 2305 28.35 88.80 | Wed 2300 -10.69 49.40 | Thu 2284 41.37 100.83 | Fri 2174 12.89 67.28 control (same days and lengths, start moved by a random number of minutes, 500 runs, 9 s): mean trades 9495.71, median avg -0.0097%, 5-95% -0.0353 .. 0.0065%; real avg 0.0045% at percentile 87.80 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.97 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4283 / 3593 / 3489 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -0.55 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 87.80 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2.21% [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 110.65% PF 1.12 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 1731 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.0058%, gates passed 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) the night in three parts (gross %, mean over 5605 nights): 13:30-17:00 0.0083% | daily break 17:00-18:00 0.0153% | 18:00-08:20 0.0301% hour table (New York hour, n, mean % change, t), descriptive only: 00h 5687 0.0047 2.37 01h 5714 0.0029 1.17 02h 5720 -0.0035 -1.21 03h 5723 -0.0019 -0.65 04h 5725 -0.0055 -2.10 05h 5728 -0.0040 -1.62 06h 5730 0.0005 0.19 07h 5728 0.0063 1.59 08h 5728 -0.0043 -0.87 09h 5725 -0.0104 -2.17 10h 5725 0.0093 2.01 11h 5720 0.0060 1.68 12h 5699 -0.0021 -0.64 13h 5619 -0.0018 -0.64 14h 5571 0.0015 0.50 15h 5496 0.0023 0.99 16h 4773 0.0008 0.51 17h 2 -0.2057 -0.36 18h 5644 0.0090 3.53 19h 5680 0.0042 1.85 20h 5680 0.0022 0.86 21h 5674 0.0050 1.90 22h 5680 0.0012 0.57 23h 5686 0.0020 1.12 buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 384 -> 4109.91