Gold at night, gold by day (spec gn_spec.md): day = 08:20-13:30 New York, night = 13:30-08:20. Run 2026-10-23T06:48:33.128Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in % of the entry price per trade; cost $0.3 an ounce a round trip. data: 7067434 minutes 2004-06-11 01:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (clock corrected) === GN-NIGHT-L: long 13:30 -> 08:20 next trading morning === DEV n= 2157 net 18.53% avg 0.0086% PF 1.03 t 0.49 VAL n= 1801 net -17.61% avg -0.0098% PF 0.96 t -0.62 HOLDOUT n= 1746 net 106.96% avg 0.0613% PF 1.24 t 3.04 ALL n=5704 sum 107.88% avg 0.0189% (gross 0.0449%, cost 0.0260% a trade); $ per ounce 3042.83; PF 1.07 t 1.83; gross t 4.36 winners 2936/5704 = 51.5% (95% Wilson 50.2-52.8%); without the 10 best 64.22%; financing A sum 42.22%, B (today's swap) sum -287.95% by year (n, net sum %, gross sum %): 2004 135 0.20 10.00 | 2005 245 -13.44 3.17 | 2006 245 -7.47 4.75 | 2007 255 3.63 14.71 | 2008 256 14.66 23.53 | 2009 256 8.22 16.17 | 2010 254 9.89 16.16 | 2011 256 15.46 20.39 | 2012 255 -12.62 -8.03 | 2013 257 -24.28 -18.76 | 2014 256 -7.76 -1.69 | 2015 256 -7.59 -0.95 | 2016 259 13.55 19.80 | 2017 257 3.28 9.41 | 2018 258 -5.73 0.38 | 2019 258 10.92 16.49 | 2020 259 19.66 24.08 | 2021 258 -4.20 0.10 | 2022 258 -5.40 -1.09 | 2023 257 10.99 14.96 | 2024 259 27.13 30.41 | 2025 258 49.07 51.36 | 2026 197 9.70 11.01 by weekday of entry (n, net sum %, gross sum %): Sun 22 -0.09 0.79 | Mon 1131 -8.92 20.28 | Tue 1154 15.32 45.58 | Wed 1150 12.28 42.33 | Thu 1143 40.78 70.58 | Fri 1104 48.51 76.79 control (same days and lengths, start moved by a random number of minutes, 500 runs, 6 s): mean trades 5338.43, median avg 0.0124%, 5-95% 0.0004 .. 0.0274%; real avg 0.0189% at percentile 71.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.96 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2157 / 1801 / 1746 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 0.49 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 71.20 [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 64.22% [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 106.96% PF 1.24 VERDICT Buried (3/6 gates) rule 3: 1579 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.0270%, gates passed 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === GN-DAY-S: short 08:20 -> 13:30 === DEV n= 2144 net -126.01% avg -0.0588% PF 0.83 t -3.00 VAL n= 1792 net -8.48% avg -0.0047% PF 0.98 t -0.34 HOLDOUT n= 1743 net -3.70% avg -0.0021% PF 0.99 t -0.12 ALL n=5679 sum -138.19% avg -0.0243% (gross 0.0016%, cost 0.0260% a trade); $ per ounce -503.13; PF 0.91 t -2.40; gross t 0.16 winners 2684/5679 = 47.3% (95% Wilson 46.0-48.6%); without the 10 best -183.49%; financing A sum -138.19%, B (today's swap) sum -136.45% by year (n, net sum %, gross sum %): 2004 133 -13.08 -3.43 | 2005 241 -26.47 -10.13 | 2006 241 -21.00 -8.98 | 2007 255 -24.30 -13.22 | 2008 255 9.69 18.51 | 2009 255 -17.05 -9.12 | 2010 253 -17.46 -11.22 | 2011 256 2.41 7.34 | 2012 255 -18.74 -14.15 | 2013 256 7.51 13.00 | 2014 255 -5.71 0.34 | 2015 252 4.81 11.34 | 2016 258 4.53 10.74 | 2017 257 -10.42 -4.29 | 2018 257 -3.33 2.76 | 2019 257 -5.86 -0.30 | 2020 258 -6.16 -1.76 | 2021 258 1.40 5.70 | 2022 258 -7.97 -3.66 | 2023 257 -1.48 2.49 | 2024 259 1.71 4.99 | 2025 257 -3.95 -1.67 | 2026 196 12.75 14.05 by weekday of entry (n, net sum %, gross sum %): Mon 1131 -8.10 21.10 | Tue 1151 -9.27 20.92 | Wed 1150 -44.26 -14.22 | Thu 1143 -23.42 6.38 | Fri 1104 -53.13 -24.83 control (same days and lengths, start moved by a random number of minutes, 500 runs, 6 s): mean trades 5231.62, median avg -0.0389%, 5-95% -0.0573 .. -0.0167%; real avg -0.0243% at percentile 74.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.98 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2144 / 1792 / 1743 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -3.00 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 74.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -183.49% [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -3.70% PF 0.99 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 159 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.0217%, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === GN-LS: long 13:30 -> 08:20, short 08:20 -> 13:30 === DEV n= 4301 net -107.47% avg -0.0250% PF 0.92 t -1.91 VAL n= 3593 net -26.09% avg -0.0073% PF 0.97 t -0.69 HOLDOUT n= 3489 net 103.25% avg 0.0296% PF 1.12 t 2.23 ALL n=11383 sum -30.31% avg -0.0027% (gross 0.0233%, cost 0.0260% a trade); $ per ounce 2539.70; PF 0.99 t -0.37; gross t 3.23 winners 5620/11383 = 49.4% (95% Wilson 48.5-50.3%); without the 10 best -80.87%; financing A sum -95.97%, B (today's swap) sum -424.40% longs (nights) n=5704 sum 107.88% gross 256.36% | shorts (days) n=5679 sum -138.19% gross 9.34% by year (n, net sum %, gross sum %): 2004 268 -12.88 6.57 | 2005 486 -39.92 -6.96 | 2006 486 -28.47 -4.23 | 2007 510 -20.67 1.49 | 2008 511 24.35 42.04 | 2009 511 -8.83 7.05 | 2010 507 -7.57 4.94 | 2011 512 17.87 27.72 | 2012 510 -31.36 -22.18 | 2013 513 -16.77 -5.76 | 2014 511 -13.48 -1.35 | 2015 508 -2.78 10.39 | 2016 517 18.08 30.54 | 2017 514 -7.14 5.12 | 2018 515 -9.05 3.14 | 2019 515 5.05 16.19 | 2020 517 13.51 22.32 | 2021 516 -2.80 5.81 | 2022 516 -13.37 -4.75 | 2023 514 9.50 17.45 | 2024 518 28.84 35.41 | 2025 515 45.12 49.70 | 2026 393 22.45 25.07 by weekday of entry (n, net sum %, gross sum %): Sun 22 -0.09 0.79 | Mon 2262 -17.03 41.38 | Tue 2305 6.05 66.50 | Wed 2300 -31.98 28.12 | Thu 2286 17.35 76.96 | Fri 2208 -4.62 51.96 control (same days and lengths, start moved by a random number of minutes, 500 runs, 10 s): mean trades 9526.72, median avg -0.0109%, 5-95% -0.0330 .. 0.0048%; real avg -0.0027% at percentile 71.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.97 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4301 / 3593 / 3489 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -1.91 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 71.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -80.87% [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 103.25% PF 1.12 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 1738 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.0009%, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) the night in three parts (gross %, mean over 5624 nights): 13:30-17:00 0.0063% | daily break 17:00-18:00 0.0155% | 18:00-08:20 0.0251% hour table (New York hour, n, mean % change, t), descriptive only: 00h 5685 0.0033 1.74 01h 5695 0.0051 2.21 02h 5719 -0.0010 -0.37 03h 5722 -0.0020 -0.64 04h 5724 -0.0052 -1.97 05h 5726 -0.0052 -2.14 06h 5729 0.0006 0.25 07h 5729 0.0034 1.12 08h 5728 0.0010 0.20 09h 5726 -0.0100 -2.08 10h 5725 0.0018 0.38 11h 5724 0.0081 2.10 12h 5708 0.0000 0.01 13h 5651 -0.0002 -0.05 14h 5581 -0.0032 -1.00 15h 5529 0.0049 1.85 16h 5287 0.0017 1.12 17h 1064 -0.0031 -0.93 18h 4005 0.0130 4.38 19h 5681 0.0036 1.54 20h 5681 0.0033 1.28 21h 5680 0.0022 0.79 22h 5672 0.0026 1.31 23h 5686 0.0007 0.38 buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 384 -> 4109.91