Change of character (ChoCh / MSS) after a liquidity sweep on NQ (spec choch_spec.md, frozen 2026-10-26). Run 2026-10-26T12:20:39.608Z; 500 control runs per variant. One contract, $15.76 a round trip; stop one tick beyond the sweep extreme; target 2R; exit at the session close.
data: 2373779 bars 2020-01-01 18:01 .. 2026-09-25 17:00 New York; 1734 usable days; levels missing: previous session 1 days, overnight 4; PDH already taken overnight 801 days, PDL 595
known holes in the NQ file: 24

1-minute structure: 1487 of 1734 days had a sweep (85.8%); sweeps 1757, a level joining a pending sweep 242; changes of character 678 (38.6% of sweeps), on 634 days; sweeps that lapsed 1071, of which 204 after a displaced close beyond a swing that was NOT a lower high / higher low; sweeps with a close beyond the structure point without displacement 499
  sweeps by level: ONH 876, ONL 776, PDH 26, PDH+ONH 25, PDL 27, PDL+ONL 27

5-minute structure: 1487 of 1734 days had a sweep (85.8%); sweeps 1747, a level joining a pending sweep 205; changes of character 164 (9.4% of sweeps), on 162 days; sweeps that lapsed 1571, of which 131 after a displaced close beyond a swing that was NOT a lower high / higher low; sweeps with a close beyond the structure point without displacement 111
  sweeps by level: ONH 851, ONL 754, PDH 19, PDH+ONH 50, PDL 24, PDL+ONL 49

=== CH-1M-MKT: 1-minute structure, market entry after the shift ===
  DEV      n= 374 net +$12,226  avg +$33  PF 1.05 t 0.37
  VAL      n= 122 net +$6,242  avg +$51  PF 1.07 t 0.29
  HOLDOUT  n= 138 net -$24,705  avg -$179  PF 0.84 t -0.85
  ALL      n=634 (36.6% of days) net -$6,237 avg -$10 a trade (gross +$6); in R: net 0.005, gross 0.021, cost 0.016; PF 0.99 t -0.13; drawdown on closed trades -$62,238
  winners 38.2% (95% 34.5-42.0%); ended by stop 349 (55.0%), session close 132 (20.8%), target 153 (24.1%); R median 60.00 points (+$1,200); minutes held median 70; without the 10 best -$64,259
  setups that did not become the day's trade: none
  costs: before +$6 | $15.76 -$10 | x1.5 -$18 | x2.5 -$33 a trade
  longs n=260 net +$18,537 avg +$71 | shorts n=374 net -$24,774 avg -$66
  by level swept (n, net): ON 544 -$28,348 | ON+PD 62 +$28,318 | PD 6 -$105 | PD+ON 22 -$6,102
  by hour of entry (n, net): 9:00 195 +$18,742 | 10:00 382 -$53,825 | 11:00 57 +$28,847
  by year (n, net): 2020 77 +$34,936 | 2021 91 -$8,084 | 2022 103 -$178 | 2023 103 -$14,448 | 2024 100 +$21,644 | 2025 87 -$44,881 | 2026 73 +$4,775
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same R, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 634.00, median avg -$2, 5-95% -$115 .. +$106; real avg -$10 at percentile 46.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.07
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 374 / 122 / 138
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.37
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 46.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$64,259
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$24,705 PF 0.84
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 6 trades touch a known hole (previous session to exit); without them avg -$6, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== CH-1M-RET: 1-minute structure, a limit at the broken swing (retest, 30 minutes) ===
  DEV      n= 294 net +$26,067  avg +$89  PF 1.17 t 1.03
  VAL      n=  95 net +$15,823  avg +$167  PF 1.28 t 0.99
  HOLDOUT  n= 105 net -$4,850  avg -$46  PF 0.94 t -0.24
  ALL      n=494 (28.5% of days) net +$37,040 avg +$75 a trade (gross +$91); in R: net 0.026, gross 0.046, cost 0.021; PF 1.12 t 1.03; drawdown on closed trades -$24,817
  winners 37.4% (95% 33.3-41.8%); ended by stop 288 (58.3%), target 146 (29.6%), session close 60 (12.1%); R median 44.25 points (+$885); minutes held median 35; without the 10 best -$14,373
  setups that did not become the day's trade: expired 75, target before the retest 83, replaced 2
  costs: before +$91 | $15.76 +$75 | x1.5 +$67 | x2.5 +$51 a trade
  longs n=197 net +$34,015 avg +$173 | shorts n=297 net +$3,024 avg +$10
  by level swept (n, net): ON 425 +$27,782 | ON+PD 48 +$21,479 | PD 6 -$4,560 | PD+ON 15 -$7,661
  by hour of entry (n, net): 9:00 128 +$3,968 | 10:00 305 +$10,398 | 11:00 61 +$22,674
  by year (n, net): 2020 52 +$14,535 | 2021 77 -$6,294 | 2022 87 +$24,644 | 2023 78 -$6,819 | 2024 79 +$14,555 | 2025 66 -$17,350 | 2026 55 +$13,768
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same R, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 494.00, median avg -$12, 5-95% -$110 .. +$96; real avg +$75 at percentile 89.80
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.28
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 294 / 95 / 105
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.03
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 89.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$14,373
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$4,850 PF 0.94
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)
  rule 3: 4 trades touch a known hole (previous session to exit); without them avg +$82, gates 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== CH-5M-MKT: 5-minute structure, market entry after the shift ===
  DEV      n= 103 net +$34,612  avg +$336  PF 1.44 t 1.45
  VAL      n=  24 net +$312  avg +$13  PF 1.01 t 0.03
  HOLDOUT  n=  35 net -$12,122  avg -$346  PF 0.75 t -0.68
  ALL      n=162 (9.3% of days) net +$22,802 avg +$141 a trade (gross +$157); in R: net 0.070, gross 0.080, cost 0.010; PF 1.15 t 0.72; drawdown on closed trades -$20,618
  winners 46.9% (95% 39.4-54.6%); ended by stop 66 (40.7%), session close 70 (43.2%), target 26 (16.0%); R median 94.25 points (+$1,885); minutes held median 261; without the 10 best -$34,331
  setups that did not become the day's trade: none
  costs: before +$157 | $15.76 +$141 | x1.5 +$133 | x2.5 +$117 a trade
  longs n=64 net +$8,161 avg +$128 | shorts n=98 net +$14,641 avg +$149
  by level swept (n, net): ON 150 +$26,846 | ON+PD 6 -$1,650 | PD+ON 6 -$2,395
  by hour of entry (n, net): 9:00 88 -$13,537 | 10:00 69 +$22,608 | 11:00 5 +$13,731
  by year (n, net): 2020 19 +$22,271 | 2021 33 -$8,535 | 2022 28 +$6,394 | 2023 23 +$14,483 | 2024 17 -$1,508 | 2025 25 -$3,424 | 2026 17 -$6,878
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same R, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 162.00, median avg -$13, 5-95% -$255 .. +$249; real avg +$141 at percentile 82.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.01
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 103 / 24 / 35
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.45
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 82.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$34,331
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$12,122 PF 0.75
  VERDICT Buried (0/6 gates)
  rule 3: 1 trades touch a known hole (previous session to exit); without them avg +$132, gates 0/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== CH-5M-RET: 5-minute structure, a limit at the broken swing (retest, 30 minutes) ===
  DEV      n=  67 net +$13,049  avg +$195  PF 1.29 t 0.85
  VAL      n=  17 net +$6,677  avg +$393  PF 1.66 t 0.91
  HOLDOUT  n=  25 net -$10,739  avg -$430  PF 0.68 t -0.77
  ALL      n=109 (6.3% of days) net +$8,987 avg +$82 a trade (gross +$98); in R: net 0.075, gross 0.088, cost 0.013; PF 1.10 t 0.41; drawdown on closed trades -$16,916
  winners 44.0% (95% 35.1-53.4%); ended by stop 52 (47.7%), session close 32 (29.4%), target 25 (22.9%); R median 66.00 points (+$1,320); minutes held median 116; without the 10 best -$32,315
  setups that did not become the day's trade: target before the retest 13, expired 40
  costs: before +$98 | $15.76 +$82 | x1.5 +$75 | x2.5 +$59 a trade
  longs n=42 net +$3,453 avg +$82 | shorts n=67 net +$5,534 avg +$83
  by level swept (n, net): ON 100 +$17,634 | ON+PD 5 -$1,449 | PD+ON 4 -$7,198
  by hour of entry (n, net): 9:00 58 -$12,894 | 10:00 47 +$8,069 | 11:00 4 +$13,812
  by year (n, net): 2020 13 +$8,020 | 2021 19 -$4,264 | 2022 18 +$1,526 | 2023 17 +$7,767 | 2024 13 +$9,710 | 2025 15 -$9,856 | 2026 14 -$3,916
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same R, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 109.00, median avg -$7, 5-95% -$255 .. +$279; real avg +$82 at percentile 70.20
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.66
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 67 / 17 / 25
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.85
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 70.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$32,315
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$10,739 PF 0.68
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 1 trades touch a known hole (previous session to exit); without them avg +$55, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)