DAX opening range breakout, 15 minutes (spec orbd_spec.md). Run 2026-11-07T15:11:39.825Z; 500 control runs per variant data: HistData GRX/EUR 1-minute, 2002995 cash-session minutes 2011-01-03 09:00 .. 2026-10-30 17:29 Frankfurt; cost 2 points a round trip (scenarios 1 and 3) weekdays 4130: complete opening range 3098, Xetra holiday 98, incomplete opening range 7, no data 16, clock unclear (2019) 20, not DAX (Euro Stoxx 50 prices) 891 === ORBD-1R-LS: target 1 R, long and short === DEV n= 2006 net -1876.02 points avg -0.935 PF 0.95 t -1.09 VAL n= 343 net -1613.93 points avg -4.705 PF 0.82 t -1.57 HOLDOUT n= 733 net -752.48 points avg -1.027 PF 0.97 t -0.35 ALL n=3082; net -4242.43 points, avg -1.377 (gross 0.623, cost 2); PF 0.94 t -1.45; ended by {"close":163,"stop":1449,"target":1470} in R: median R 37.50 points; gross 0.008 R, net -0.052 R a trade; cost 0.060 R a trade cost scenarios (not gates): 1 points: avg -0.377, net -1160.43 | 3 points: avg -2.377, net -7324.43 win rate 1538/3082 = 49.9% (95% Wilson 48.1-51.7%); the 10 best trades 2291.00; drawdown on closed trades -5623.99 longs n=1490 net -1726.54 gross 1253.46 | shorts n=1592 net -2515.90 gross 668.10 by year (n, net): 2011 255 -261 | 2012 254 -456 | 2013 251 -473 | 2014 250 67 | 2015 251 -189 | 2016 254 -545 | 2017 244 -222 | 2018 247 203 | 2019 232 -941 | 2020 111 -673 | 2023 18 -110 | 2024 251 -817 | 2025 253 1,693 | 2026 211 -1,518 control (direction moved to other days, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 2,151, median avg -1.255, 5-95% -2.478 .. -0.098; real avg -1.377 at percentile 44.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.82 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2006 / 343 / 733 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.09 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 44.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -6533.44 points [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (fresh): HOLDOUT net -752.48 points PF 0.97 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 66 trades on days with a missing minute while the trade could open or was open (2011 15, 2012 8, 2013 12, 2014 7, 2015 3, 2016 5, 2017 7, 2018 2, 2020 1, 2024 1, 2025 3, 2026 2); without them avg -1.196, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === ORBD-1R-L: target 1 R, long only === DEV n= 950 net -782.70 points avg -0.824 PF 0.95 t -0.65 VAL n= 173 net -806.09 points avg -4.659 PF 0.82 t -1.13 HOLDOUT n= 367 net -137.75 points avg -0.375 PF 0.99 t -0.09 ALL n=1490; net -1726.54 points, avg -1.159 (gross 0.841, cost 2); PF 0.95 t -0.85; ended by {"close":87,"stop":689,"target":714} in R: median R 38.03 points; gross 0.023 R, net -0.035 R a trade; cost 0.058 R a trade cost scenarios (not gates): 1 points: avg -0.159, net -236.54 | 3 points: avg -2.159, net -3216.54 win rate 756/1490 = 50.7% (95% Wilson 48.2-53.3%); the 10 best trades 1923.67; drawdown on closed trades -2632.66 longs n=1490 net -1726.54 gross 1253.46 | shorts n=0 net 0.00 gross 0.00 by year (n, net): 2011 120 -301 | 2012 119 -125 | 2013 120 -163 | 2014 111 -261 | 2015 113 110 | 2016 124 35 | 2017 122 252 | 2018 121 -330 | 2019 115 -96 | 2020 58 -710 | 2023 12 -67 | 2024 128 115 | 2025 124 597 | 2026 103 -783 control (direction moved to other days, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 1,026, median avg -0.208, 5-95% -1.796 .. 1.599; real avg -1.159 at percentile 18.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.82 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 950 / 173 / 367 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.65 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 18.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -3650.21 points [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (fresh): HOLDOUT net -137.75 points PF 0.99 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 34 trades on days with a missing minute while the trade could open or was open (2011 7, 2012 5, 2013 7, 2014 3, 2015 2, 2016 4, 2017 3, 2018 1, 2024 1, 2025 1); without them avg -1.090, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === ORBD-CL-LS: no target, held to 17:30, long and short === DEV n= 2006 net 1669.43 points avg 0.832 PF 1.04 t 0.59 VAL n= 343 net -919.04 points avg -2.679 PF 0.92 t -0.57 HOLDOUT n= 733 net 1554.74 points avg 2.121 PF 1.05 t 0.49 ALL n=3082; net 2305.14 points, avg 0.748 (gross 2.748, cost 2); PF 1.03 t 0.51; ended by {"close":1197,"stop":1885} in R: median R 37.50 points; gross 0.052 R, net -0.008 R a trade; cost 0.060 R a trade cost scenarios (not gates): 1 points: avg 1.748, net 5387.14 | 3 points: avg -0.252, net -776.86 win rate 1006/3082 = 32.6% (95% Wilson 31.0-34.3%); the 10 best trades 5123.42; drawdown on closed trades -3422.49 longs n=1490 net 2453.93 gross 5433.93 | shorts n=1592 net -148.79 gross 3035.21 by year (n, net): 2011 255 -79 | 2012 254 937 | 2013 251 -604 | 2014 250 905 | 2015 251 840 | 2016 254 -724 | 2017 244 376 | 2018 247 18 | 2019 232 -486 | 2020 111 -433 | 2023 18 -166 | 2024 251 -621 | 2025 253 3,089 | 2026 211 -747 control (direction moved to other days, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 2,151, median avg 0.644, 5-95% -1.374 .. 2.699; real avg 0.748 at percentile 54.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.92 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2006 / 343 / 733 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.59 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 54.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2818.29 points [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (fresh): HOLDOUT net 1554.74 points PF 1.05 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 138 trades on days with a missing minute while the trade could open or was open (2011 32, 2012 12, 2013 24, 2014 20, 2015 7, 2016 5, 2017 13, 2018 2, 2019 3, 2020 3, 2023 2, 2024 4, 2025 6, 2026 5); without them avg -0.284, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === ORBD-CL-L: no target, held to 17:30, long only === DEV n= 950 net 1446.75 points avg 1.523 PF 1.07 t 0.76 VAL n= 173 net -570.89 points avg -3.300 PF 0.90 t -0.54 HOLDOUT n= 367 net 1578.07 points avg 4.300 PF 1.11 t 0.73 ALL n=1490; net 2453.93 points, avg 1.647 (gross 3.647, cost 2); PF 1.06 t 0.80; ended by {"close":600,"stop":890} in R: median R 38.03 points; gross 0.086 R, net 0.028 R a trade; cost 0.058 R a trade cost scenarios (not gates): 1 points: avg 2.647, net 3943.93 | 3 points: avg 0.647, net 963.93 win rate 508/1490 = 34.1% (95% Wilson 31.7-36.5%); the 10 best trades 4071.72; drawdown on closed trades -2663.11 longs n=1490 net 2453.93 gross 5433.93 | shorts n=0 net 0.00 gross 0.00 by year (n, net): 2011 120 244 | 2012 119 630 | 2013 120 -82 | 2014 111 218 | 2015 113 802 | 2016 124 213 | 2017 122 283 | 2018 121 -860 | 2019 115 282 | 2020 58 -853 | 2023 12 -241 | 2024 128 -149 | 2025 124 1,522 | 2026 103 446 control (direction moved to other days, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 1,026, median avg 1.478, 5-95% -0.962 .. 4.481; real avg 1.647 at percentile 52.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.90 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 950 / 173 / 367 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.76 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 52.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1617.79 points [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (fresh): HOLDOUT net 1578.07 points PF 1.11 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 76 trades on days with a missing minute while the trade could open or was open (2011 16, 2012 8, 2013 16, 2014 11, 2015 3, 2016 4, 2017 6, 2018 1, 2019 2, 2020 1, 2023 2, 2024 2, 2025 2, 2026 2); without them avg 0.546, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)