Double top and double bottom, reviewed version (zigzag of 1-hour closes, cut-off k x volatility, k = 3 and 6; EMA50 trend; tops within 0.3 x k x ATR14 in dollars; stop one tick beyond the second top) on XAUUSD (spec dtop2_spec.md, sha256 33e986112e2c...). Run 2026-11-11T19:36:04.220Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R = the pattern's height (highest high to valley floor); a trade that reaches its target makes about +1 R before costs.
data: 7067434 one-minute bars, 2004-06-11 01:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (minute close stamps, the clock of our clock audit)
1-hour bars: 129857; volatility and zigzag from bar 501 (2004-07-15 01:00)
patterns, k = 3: 5588 zigzag pivots; 713 valid patterns (353 double tops, 360 double bottoms), 299 closed beyond the valley in time (41.9%; tops 41.4%, bottoms 42.5%); median 24 one-hour bars between the two tops; mean height of the confirmed ones $21.00 an ounce
  by year (tops/bottoms/confirmed): 2004 5/6/4 | 2005 22/13/22 | 2006 20/14/14 | 2007 20/14/16 | 2008 17/21/13 | 2009 9/18/15 | 2010 15/13/13 | 2011 14/13/7 | 2012 10/12/8 | 2013 16/17/13 | 2014 10/18/8 | 2015 10/13/12 | 2016 20/19/21 | 2017 15/13/10 | 2018 21/22/16 | 2019 18/18/16 | 2020 22/17/13 | 2021 10/18/10 | 2022 13/18/15 | 2023 18/19/13 | 2024 17/18/14 | 2025 21/13/15 | 2026 10/13/11
patterns, k = 6: 2013 zigzag pivots; 255 valid patterns (129 double tops, 126 double bottoms), 118 closed beyond the valley in time (46.3%; tops 48.8%, bottoms 43.7%); median 69 one-hour bars between the two tops; mean height of the confirmed ones $44.72 an ounce
  by year (tops/bottoms/confirmed): 2004 3/2/3 | 2005 6/6/8 | 2006 2/6/5 | 2007 8/7/8 | 2008 6/5/7 | 2009 4/5/4 | 2010 4/1/3 | 2011 6/3/2 | 2012 4/5/5 | 2013 6/2/4 | 2014 6/5/3 | 2015 4/9/6 | 2016 7/5/6 | 2017 5/3/5 | 2018 7/6/7 | 2019 11/6/8 | 2020 6/7/3 | 2021 8/8/6 | 2022 8/5/3 | 2023 5/7/4 | 2024 3/8/5 | 2025 6/5/6 | 2026 4/10/7

=== DT-1: double tops (sell) and double bottoms (buy), k = 3, zigzag cut-off 3 x volatility ===
  breaks not taken: 23 while a trade was open, 4 with the entry already at or beyond the target, 0 at or beyond the stop
  DEV      n=  102 net 6.79 R  avg 0.067 R  PF 1.17 t 0.73
  VAL      n=   83 net -13.38 R  avg -0.161 R  PF 0.70 t -1.54
  HOLDOUT  n=   87 net -8.07 R  avg -0.093 R  PF 0.83 t -0.87
  ALL      n=272 net -14.66 R avg -0.054 R (gross -0.030 R, cost 0.024 R a trade); $ per ounce -678.27; PF 0.89 t -0.93
  win rate 151/272 = 55.5% (95% Wilson 49.6-61.3%); ended by {"stop":121,"target":151}: target 55.5%, stop 44.5%; came back to the valley floor before the exit: 82.4%
  mean height $21.46 an ounce; mean distance to the stop 1.113 R, to the target 0.834 R; hours held median 42.82 max 2011.58; the 10 best trades 10.11 R; worst open loss -1.84 R
  longs (double bottoms) n=140 net 3.18 R gross 6.54 R | shorts (double tops) n=132 net -17.83 R gross -14.65 R
  drawdown on closed trades -22.33 R; including open losses -22.72 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net -19.68 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -19.62 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 4 -2.11 | 2005 19 0.07 | 2006 13 -1.06 | 2007 16 -2.09 | 2008 12 3.06 | 2009 14 3.78 | 2010 11 -1.98 | 2011 6 3.43 | 2012 7 3.70 | 2013 12 -5.64 | 2014 7 -4.15 | 2015 10 -0.94 | 2016 15 -1.83 | 2017 10 0.39 | 2018 15 0.09 | 2019 14 -1.30 | 2020 13 0.86 | 2021 10 -3.70 | 2022 14 2.13 | 2023 12 5.15 | 2024 13 1.09 | 2025 14 -7.93 | 2026 11 -5.67
  control (entries moved to other days, stop and target scaled by volatility, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 212.74, median avg -0.025 R, 5-95% -0.128 .. 0.073 R; real avg -0.054 R at percentile 34.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.70
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 102 / 83 / 87
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.73
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 34.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -24.77 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -8.07 R PF 0.83
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 73 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.008 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  double tops (sells)    n=132 avg -0.135 R (gross -0.111) PF 0.75 t -1.61; win 52.3%, target 52.3%; holdout -8.55 R
  double bottoms (buys)  n=140 avg 0.023 R (gross 0.047) PF 1.05 t 0.28; win 58.6%, target 58.6%; holdout 0.48 R
  cost sensitivity (not gated): 0.30: avg -0.054 R, net -14.66 R, PF 0.89, VAL PF 0.70, DEV t 0.73, holdout -8.07 R | 0.45: avg -0.066 R, net -17.93 R, PF 0.87, VAL PF 0.68, DEV t 0.54, holdout -8.60 R | 0.75: avg -0.090 R, net -24.48 R, PF 0.82, VAL PF 0.65, DEV t 0.16, holdout -9.66 R

=== DT-2: double tops (sell) and double bottoms (buy), k = 6, zigzag cut-off 6 x volatility ===
  breaks not taken: 11 while a trade was open, 0 with the entry already at or beyond the target, 0 at or beyond the stop
  DEV      n=   44 net -7.21 R  avg -0.164 R  PF 0.71 t -1.10
  VAL      n=   33 net -7.55 R  avg -0.229 R  PF 0.62 t -1.33
  HOLDOUT  n=   30 net 8.96 R  avg 0.299 R  PF 1.97 t 1.84
  ALL      n=107 net -5.80 R avg -0.054 R (gross -0.040 R, cost 0.014 R a trade); $ per ounce 790.78; PF 0.89 t -0.57
  win rate 57/107 = 53.3% (95% Wilson 43.9-62.4%); ended by {"stop":50,"target":57}: target 53.3%, stop 46.7%; came back to the valley floor before the exit: 87.9%
  mean height $44.55 an ounce; mean distance to the stop 1.081 R, to the target 0.879 R; hours held median 150.05 max 2011.58; the 10 best trades 9.81 R; worst open loss -1.42 R
  longs (double bottoms) n=50 net 2.55 R gross 3.24 R | shorts (double tops) n=57 net -8.34 R gross -7.51 R
  drawdown on closed trades -17.30 R; including open losses -17.58 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net -9.36 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -7.36 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 3 -3.55 | 2005 8 -2.90 | 2006 5 0.73 | 2007 7 -0.40 | 2008 7 -2.61 | 2009 4 1.24 | 2010 3 0.94 | 2011 2 -0.18 | 2012 5 -0.47 | 2013 3 2.75 | 2014 4 -2.03 | 2015 5 0.57 | 2016 3 -1.12 | 2017 5 0.09 | 2018 7 -5.35 | 2019 6 -2.46 | 2020 3 -1.21 | 2021 4 -0.41 | 2022 3 0.06 | 2023 4 1.48 | 2024 5 2.67 | 2025 6 5.49 | 2026 5 0.89
  control (entries moved to other days, stop and target scaled by volatility, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 82.67, median avg -0.035 R, 5-95% -0.206 .. 0.168 R; real avg -0.054 R at percentile 40.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.62
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 44 / 33 / 30
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.10
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 40.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -15.61 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 8.96 R PF 1.97
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 47 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.024 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  double tops (sells)    n=57 avg -0.146 R (gross -0.132) PF 0.73 t -1.14; win 50.9%, target 50.9%; holdout 6.66 R
  double bottoms (buys)  n=50 avg 0.051 R (gross 0.065) PF 1.11 t 0.37; win 56.0%, target 56.0%; holdout 2.30 R
  cost sensitivity (not gated): 0.30: avg -0.054 R, net -5.80 R, PF 0.89, VAL PF 0.62, DEV t -1.10, holdout 8.96 R | 0.45: avg -0.061 R, net -6.56 R, PF 0.88, VAL PF 0.62, DEV t -1.17, holdout 8.87 R | 0.75: avg -0.076 R, net -8.09 R, PF 0.85, VAL PF 0.60, DEV t -1.30, holdout 8.69 R

=== DT-3: double bottoms only (buy), k = 3, zigzag cut-off 3 x volatility ===
  breaks not taken: 5 while a trade was open, 1 with the entry already at or beyond the target, 0 at or beyond the stop
  DEV      n=   57 net 6.52 R  avg 0.114 R  PF 1.31 t 0.96
  VAL      n=   45 net -3.02 R  avg -0.067 R  PF 0.86 t -0.47
  HOLDOUT  n=   45 net 1.45 R  avg 0.032 R  PF 1.07 t 0.23
  ALL      n=147 net 4.95 R avg 0.034 R (gross 0.058 R, cost 0.024 R a trade); $ per ounce -172.59; PF 1.08 t 0.44
  win rate 87/147 = 59.2% (95% Wilson 51.1-66.8%); ended by {"stop":60,"target":87}: target 59.2%, stop 40.8%; came back to the valley floor before the exit: 81.0%
  mean height $21.22 an ounce; mean distance to the stop 1.100 R, to the target 0.839 R; hours held median 42.82 max 347.42; the 10 best trades 10.08 R; worst open loss -1.84 R
  longs (double bottoms) n=147 net 4.95 R gross 8.48 R | shorts (double tops) n=0 net 0.00 R gross 0.00 R
  drawdown on closed trades -11.21 R; including open losses -11.58 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 2.35 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -11.06 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 3 -1.04 | 2005 10 1.60 | 2006 8 0.53 | 2007 6 0.79 | 2008 6 0.38 | 2009 9 2.08 | 2010 5 -2.34 | 2011 5 2.50 | 2012 5 2.02 | 2013 3 -2.90 | 2014 4 -2.79 | 2015 6 -3.80 | 2016 8 0.26 | 2017 5 0.23 | 2018 10 1.93 | 2019 9 4.06 | 2020 5 -0.27 | 2021 6 -2.75 | 2022 9 1.33 | 2023 6 1.54 | 2024 7 4.29 | 2025 5 0.51 | 2026 7 -3.20
  control (entries moved to other days, stop and target scaled by volatility, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 118.08, median avg 0.028 R, 5-95% -0.110 .. 0.147 R; real avg 0.034 R at percentile 51.40
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.86
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 57 / 45 / 45
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.96
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 51.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -5.13 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 1.45 R PF 1.07
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 41 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.071 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  double bottoms (buys)  n=147 avg 0.034 R (gross 0.058) PF 1.08 t 0.44; win 59.2%, target 59.2%; holdout 1.45 R
  cost sensitivity (not gated): 0.30: avg 0.034 R, net 4.95 R, PF 1.08, VAL PF 0.86, DEV t 0.96, holdout 1.45 R | 0.45: avg 0.022 R, net 3.18 R, PF 1.05, VAL PF 0.84, DEV t 0.82, holdout 1.17 R | 0.75: avg -0.002 R, net -0.36 R, PF 0.99, VAL PF 0.79, DEV t 0.55, holdout 0.60 R

=== DT-4: double bottoms only (buy), k = 6, zigzag cut-off 6 x volatility ===
  breaks not taken: 3 while a trade was open, 0 with the entry already at or beyond the target, 0 at or beyond the stop
  DEV      n=   23 net -1.13 R  avg -0.049 R  PF 0.91 t -0.23
  VAL      n=   12 net 3.26 R  avg 0.272 R  PF 1.86 t 1.04
  HOLDOUT  n=   17 net 2.30 R  avg 0.135 R  PF 1.32 t 0.55
  ALL      n=52 net 4.44 R avg 0.085 R (gross 0.099 R, cost 0.014 R a trade); $ per ounce 242.52; PF 1.19 t 0.63
  win rate 30/52 = 57.7% (95% Wilson 44.2-70.1%); ended by {"stop":22,"target":30}: target 57.7%, stop 42.3%; came back to the valley floor before the exit: 98.1%
  mean height $46.20 an ounce; mean distance to the stop 1.021 R, to the target 0.921 R; hours held median 164.23 max 1596.55; the 10 best trades 9.79 R; worst open loss -1.31 R
  longs (double bottoms) n=52 net 4.44 R gross 5.15 R | shorts (double tops) n=0 net 0.00 R gross 0.00 R
  drawdown on closed trades -4.43 R; including open losses -5.11 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 2.71 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -5.96 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 1 -1.08 | 2005 3 -1.29 | 2006 4 -0.23 | 2007 5 -1.11 | 2008 3 0.42 | 2009 2 -0.27 | 2010 1 0.99 | 2011 1 0.88 | 2012 3 0.56 | 2014 1 0.93 | 2015 3 0.69 | 2016 1 0.92 | 2017 2 1.62 | 2018 2 -1.87 | 2019 3 0.98 | 2020 2 -0.08 | 2021 3 -1.26 | 2022 1 -1.23 | 2023 1 0.99 | 2024 4 1.88 | 2025 2 1.94 | 2026 4 0.06
  control (entries moved to other days, stop and target scaled by volatility, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 41.47, median avg 0.104 R, 5-95% -0.156 .. 0.334 R; real avg 0.085 R at percentile 44.60
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.86
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 23 / 12 / 17
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.23
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 44.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -5.35 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 2.30 R PF 1.32
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)
  rule 3: 27 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.146 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Inconclusive (VERDICT CHANGES: Inconclusive by rule 3)
  double bottoms (buys)  n=52 avg 0.085 R (gross 0.099) PF 1.19 t 0.63; win 57.7%, target 57.7%; holdout 2.30 R
  cost sensitivity (not gated): 0.30: avg 0.085 R, net 4.44 R, PF 1.19, VAL PF 1.86, DEV t -0.23, holdout 2.30 R | 0.45: avg 0.078 R, net 4.08 R, PF 1.18, VAL PF 1.83, DEV t -0.28, holdout 2.26 R | 0.75: avg 0.065 R, net 3.36 R, PF 1.14, VAL PF 1.77, DEV t -0.37, holdout 2.17 R

buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 384 -> 4109.91