Double top and double bottom (zigzag of 1-hour closes, cut-off k x volatility, k = 3 and 6; tops within 0.3 x k x volatility) on XAUUSD (spec dtop_spec.md, sha256 259aebcc3a7f...). Run 2026-11-11T19:26:07.343Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R = the pattern's height (highest high to valley floor); a trade that reaches its target makes about +1 R before costs.
data: 7067434 one-minute bars, 2004-06-11 01:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (minute close stamps, the clock of our clock audit)
1-hour bars: 129857; volatility and zigzag from bar 501 (2004-07-15 01:00)
patterns, k = 3: 5588 zigzag pivots; 383 valid patterns (204 double tops, 179 double bottoms), 159 closed beyond the valley in time (41.5%; tops 40.7%, bottoms 42.5%); median 25 one-hour bars between the two tops; mean height of the confirmed ones $17.94 an ounce
  by year (tops/bottoms/confirmed): 2004 6/3/3 | 2005 13/10/14 | 2006 15/8/9 | 2007 11/7/10 | 2008 12/13/8 | 2009 7/8/7 | 2010 11/9/10 | 2011 10/8/5 | 2012 7/6/8 | 2013 9/4/8 | 2014 7/10/6 | 2015 5/7/4 | 2016 7/5/7 | 2017 9/10/6 | 2018 11/13/8 | 2019 5/7/4 | 2020 11/9/5 | 2021 5/8/5 | 2022 8/9/9 | 2023 10/13/7 | 2024 13/6/7 | 2025 6/2/3 | 2026 6/4/6
patterns, k = 6: 2013 zigzag pivots; 141 valid patterns (80 double tops, 61 double bottoms), 63 closed beyond the valley in time (44.7%; tops 40.0%, bottoms 50.8%); median 70 one-hour bars between the two tops; mean height of the confirmed ones $37.65 an ounce
  by year (tops/bottoms/confirmed): 2004 2/0/1 | 2005 3/4/4 | 2006 2/5/5 | 2007 7/5/7 | 2008 3/1/2 | 2009 5/2/3 | 2010 2/2/3 | 2011 6/2/1 | 2012 3/3/3 | 2013 3/1/3 | 2014 4/1/2 | 2015 1/3/2 | 2016 6/3/5 | 2017 5/3/3 | 2018 3/1/3 | 2019 3/2/2 | 2020 7/4/3 | 2021 4/4/2 | 2022 2/2/0 | 2023 1/2/0 | 2024 1/6/3 | 2025 4/2/3 | 2026 3/3/3

=== DT-LS-3: double tops (sell) and double bottoms (buy), zigzag cut-off 3 x volatility ===
  breaks not taken: 6 while a trade was open, 2 with the entry already at or beyond the target, 0 at or beyond the stop
  DEV      n=   69 net -0.14 R  avg -0.002 R  PF 1.00 t -0.02
  VAL      n=   41 net -3.43 R  avg -0.084 R  PF 0.83 t -0.55
  HOLDOUT  n=   41 net 0.58 R  avg 0.014 R  PF 1.03 t 0.09
  ALL      n=151 net -2.99 R avg -0.020 R (gross 0.006 R, cost 0.026 R a trade); $ per ounce -89.03; PF 0.96 t -0.25
  win rate 87/151 = 57.6% (95% Wilson 49.6-65.2%); ended by {"stop":64,"target":87}: target 57.6%, stop 42.4%; came back to the valley floor before the exit: 84.1%
  mean height $18.27 an ounce; mean distance to the stop 1.118 R, to the target 0.829 R; hours held median 37.08 max 2011.58; the 10 best trades 9.73 R; worst open loss -1.72 R
  longs (double bottoms) n=73 net 5.23 R gross 7.09 R | shorts (double tops) n=78 net -8.22 R gross -6.20 R
  drawdown on closed trades -8.22 R; including open losses -8.27 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net -5.78 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -6.49 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 3 -2.91 | 2005 12 -0.69 | 2006 9 -3.54 | 2007 10 0.91 | 2008 7 1.60 | 2009 7 -0.19 | 2010 9 -1.43 | 2011 4 1.55 | 2012 8 4.57 | 2013 8 -1.59 | 2014 5 -3.13 | 2015 4 1.55 | 2016 6 -2.64 | 2017 6 -0.64 | 2018 8 1.90 | 2019 4 1.12 | 2020 5 2.77 | 2021 5 -2.18 | 2022 8 2.71 | 2023 7 4.15 | 2024 7 -4.25 | 2025 3 -2.19 | 2026 6 -0.43
  control (entries moved to other days, stop and target scaled by volatility, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 121.05, median avg -0.019 R, 5-95% -0.174 .. 0.109 R; real avg -0.020 R at percentile 49.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.83
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 69 / 41 / 41
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.02
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 49.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -12.72 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 0.58 R PF 1.03
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 39 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.104 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== DT-L-3: double bottoms only (buy), zigzag cut-off 3 x volatility ===
  breaks not taken: 1 while a trade was open, 0 with the entry already at or beyond the target, 0 at or beyond the stop
  DEV      n=   34 net 2.24 R  avg 0.066 R  PF 1.16 t 0.41
  VAL      n=   19 net 1.74 R  avg 0.091 R  PF 1.23 t 0.42
  HOLDOUT  n=   22 net 2.72 R  avg 0.124 R  PF 1.32 t 0.62
  ALL      n=75 net 6.70 R avg 0.089 R (gross 0.115 R, cost 0.026 R a trade); $ per ounce 35.83; PF 1.22 t 0.84
  win rate 47/75 = 62.7% (95% Wilson 51.4-72.7%); ended by {"stop":28,"target":47}: target 62.7%, stop 37.3%; came back to the valley floor before the exit: 82.7%
  mean height $18.58 an ounce; mean distance to the stop 1.117 R, to the target 0.834 R; hours held median 37.08 max 280.72; the 10 best trades 9.57 R; worst open loss -1.52 R
  longs (double bottoms) n=75 net 6.70 R gross 8.64 R | shorts (double tops) n=0 net 0.00 R gross 0.00 R
  drawdown on closed trades -5.85 R; including open losses -5.90 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 5.26 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -3.25 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 2 -1.88 | 2005 7 1.64 | 2006 3 -0.89 | 2007 5 1.63 | 2008 3 -1.34 | 2009 2 -0.32 | 2010 4 -0.92 | 2011 3 0.62 | 2012 5 3.69 | 2013 1 -1.11 | 2014 2 -2.35 | 2015 2 -0.12 | 2016 2 -0.42 | 2017 3 -0.98 | 2018 6 4.62 | 2019 3 2.08 | 2020 2 0.08 | 2021 4 -0.79 | 2022 5 1.91 | 2023 4 3.10 | 2024 2 -0.15 | 2025 1 -1.17 | 2026 4 -0.25
  control (entries moved to other days, stop and target scaled by volatility, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 60.67, median avg 0.037 R, 5-95% -0.177 .. 0.209 R; real avg 0.089 R at percentile 67.60
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.23
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 34 / 19 / 22
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.41
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 67.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2.87 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 2.72 R PF 1.32
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)
  rule 3: 19 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.156 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== DT-LS-6: double tops (sell) and double bottoms (buy), zigzag cut-off 6 x volatility ===
  breaks not taken: 3 while a trade was open, 0 with the entry already at or beyond the target, 0 at or beyond the stop
  DEV      n=   28 net 4.64 R  avg 0.166 R  PF 1.46 t 0.95
  VAL      n=   18 net 0.25 R  avg 0.014 R  PF 1.03 t 0.06
  HOLDOUT  n=   14 net 0.81 R  avg 0.058 R  PF 1.13 t 0.21
  ALL      n=60 net 5.70 R avg 0.095 R (gross 0.110 R, cost 0.015 R a trade); $ per ounce 272.78; PF 1.23 t 0.77
  win rate 37/60 = 61.7% (95% Wilson 49.0-72.9%); ended by {"stop":23,"target":37}: target 61.7%, stop 38.3%; came back to the valley floor before the exit: 90.0%
  mean height $38.46 an ounce; mean distance to the stop 1.098 R, to the target 0.867 R; hours held median 165.17 max 2011.58; the 10 best trades 9.65 R; worst open loss -1.42 R
  longs (double bottoms) n=29 net 4.42 R gross 4.82 R | shorts (double tops) n=31 net 1.27 R gross 1.75 R
  drawdown on closed trades -5.60 R; including open losses -5.61 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 3.75 R, scenario B (today's swap) net 3.80 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 1 -1.12 | 2005 4 1.43 | 2006 5 0.73 | 2007 7 1.05 | 2008 2 -0.22 | 2009 3 0.38 | 2010 2 1.75 | 2011 1 0.88 | 2012 3 -0.23 | 2013 2 1.77 | 2014 3 -1.06 | 2015 2 1.76 | 2016 3 -1.12 | 2017 3 0.44 | 2018 3 -3.44 | 2019 2 1.88 | 2020 3 -3.14 | 2021 2 1.80 | 2024 3 0.97 | 2025 3 2.59 | 2026 3 -1.40
  control (entries moved to other days, stop and target scaled by volatility, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 47.79, median avg -0.028 R, 5-95% -0.254 .. 0.206 R; real avg 0.095 R at percentile 80.40
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.03
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 28 / 18 / 14
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.95
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 80.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -3.95 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 0.81 R PF 1.13
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 30 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.066 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== DT-L-6: double bottoms only (buy), zigzag cut-off 6 x volatility ===
  breaks not taken: 0 while a trade was open, 0 with the entry already at or beyond the target, 0 at or beyond the stop
  DEV      n=   17 net 1.63 R  avg 0.096 R  PF 1.22 t 0.39
  VAL      n=    6 net 3.26 R  avg 0.543 R  PF 4.16 t 1.71
  HOLDOUT  n=    8 net -0.50 R  avg -0.063 R  PF 0.88 t -0.17
  ALL      n=31 net 4.39 R avg 0.141 R (gross 0.155 R, cost 0.014 R a trade); $ per ounce 38.75; PF 1.34 t 0.80
  win rate 19/31 = 61.3% (95% Wilson 43.8-76.3%); ended by {"target":19,"stop":12}: target 61.3%, stop 38.7%; came back to the valley floor before the exit: 96.8%
  mean height $43.14 an ounce; mean distance to the stop 1.030 R, to the target 0.915 R; hours held median 206.20 max 818.00; the 10 best trades 9.53 R; worst open loss -1.31 R
  longs (double bottoms) n=31 net 4.39 R gross 4.81 R | shorts (double tops) n=0 net 0.00 R gross 0.00 R
  drawdown on closed trades -3.21 R; including open losses -3.91 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 3.39 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -2.11 R
  by year (n, net R): 2005 2 1.77 | 2006 4 -0.23 | 2007 4 -0.17 | 2009 2 -0.27 | 2010 2 0.03 | 2011 1 0.88 | 2012 2 -0.39 | 2014 1 0.93 | 2015 1 0.82 | 2016 1 0.92 | 2017 1 0.66 | 2018 1 -1.03 | 2019 1 0.96 | 2020 1 -1.01 | 2024 3 0.97 | 2025 1 0.94 | 2026 3 -1.40
  control (entries moved to other days, stop and target scaled by volatility, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 24.94, median avg 0.097 R, 5-95% -0.225 .. 0.437 R; real avg 0.141 R at percentile 59.80
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 4.16
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 17 / 6 / 8
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.39
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 59.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -5.14 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -0.50 R PF 0.88
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 19 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.245 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Inconclusive (VERDICT CHANGES: Inconclusive by rule 3)

buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 384 -> 4109.91