EMA 9/20 crossover on XAUUSD, 15-minute and 1-hour bars (spec gx_spec.md, 2026-10-08). Run 2026-10-08T16:20:02.531Z; 500 control runs per variant

########## XAUUSD spot, 15-minute bars: 7067434 minute bars -> 512811 hourly bars 2004-06-11 00:30 .. 2026-10-07 17:00; 24062 crosses (12031 golden, 12031 death); averages exist from 2004-06-11
  median R = 1.5 x ATR(14): 2.41 points; cost per trade in R (median): 0.12
  controls: 500 runs x 12 variants (plus the two cost scenarios) in 613 s

=== GX-M15-L-N: long only, no stop, no target ===
  DEV      n=4503 net -341.67 R  PF 0.92 t -1.80
  VAL      n=3811 net -491.80 R  PF 0.85 t -2.96
  HOLDOUT  n=3716 net 136.31 R  PF 1.05 t 0.85
  ALL      n=12030 net -697.16 R (gross 1191.15 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.93 t -2.33 avg -0.06 R/trade; win 3247/12030 = 27% (95% Wilson 26-28%) avg winner 2.91 R avg loser -1.16 R
  total -693 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":12030}; avg hours held 8.68; time in market 53%; closed-trade drawdown -1057.70 R; drawdown incl. open losses -1058.06 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -693 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 2,702 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -79.07 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -697.16 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 538.91; data-hole trades 19
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 12030.96, median avg -0.09 R, 5th -0.12, 95th -0.06; real avg -0.06 R -> percentile 93.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -895.19 R PF 0.91 (baseline -697.16 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.85
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4503 / 3811 / 3716
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.80
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 93.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -976.26 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 136.31 R PF 1.05
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -895.19 R, t -3.02, development t -2.19, control percentile 93.00, gates FPFFFP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -1736.55 R, t -6.03, development t -5.05, control percentile 94.60, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-L-S: long only, stop 1 R only ===
  DEV      n=4503 net -370.65 R  PF 0.89 t -2.24
  VAL      n=3811 net -545.62 R  PF 0.81 t -3.75
  HOLDOUT  n=3716 net 88.34 R  PF 1.04 t 0.61
  ALL      n=12030 net -827.93 R (gross 1060.38 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.91 t -3.14 avg -0.07 R/trade; win 2789/12030 = 23% (95% Wilson 22-24%) avg winner 2.87 R avg loser -0.95 R
  total -1,133 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":6415,"stop":5615}; avg hours held 7.30; time in market 45%; closed-trade drawdown -1143.83 R; drawdown incl. open losses -1144.20 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -1,133 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 2,567 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -79.75 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -827.93 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 538.91; data-hole trades 19
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 12030.96, median avg -0.11 R, 5th -0.14, 95th -0.09; real avg -0.07 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -992.66 R PF 0.89 (baseline -827.93 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.81
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4503 / 3811 / 3716
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -2.24
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1099.78 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 88.34 R PF 1.04
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -992.66 R, t -3.79, development t -2.61, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -1696.56 R, t -6.68, development t -5.36, control percentile 96.40, gates FPFPFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-L-T1: long only, stop 1 R, target 1 R ===
  DEV      n=4503 net -884.93 R  PF 0.66 t -12.93
  VAL      n=3811 net -765.05 R  PF 0.64 t -13.24
  HOLDOUT  n=3716 net -290.83 R  PF 0.84 t -5.12
  ALL      n=12030 net -1940.82 R (gross -52.51 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.70 t -18.27 avg -0.16 R/trade; win 5336/12030 = 44% (95% Wilson 43-45%) avg winner 0.87 R avg loser -0.98 R
  total -4,253 $ per ounce; exits {"target":5298,"signal":2625,"stop":4107}; avg hours held 2.52; time in market 15%; closed-trade drawdown -1954.72 R; drawdown incl. open losses -1954.86 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -4,253 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 4,365 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -96.52 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -1940.82 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 538.91; data-hole trades 18
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 12030.96, median avg -0.14 R, 5th -0.16, 95th -0.13; real avg -0.16 R -> percentile 0.60
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -1994.16 R PF 0.70 (baseline -1940.82 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.64
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4503 / 3811 / 3716
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -12.93
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 0.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1989.18 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -290.83 R PF 0.84
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -1994.16 R, t -18.78, development t -13.21, control percentile 1.00, gates FPFFFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -2269.12 R, t -21.21, development t -15.24, control percentile 10.00, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-L-T2: long only, stop 1 R, target 2 R ===
  DEV      n=4503 net -747.93 R  PF 0.76 t -8.20
  VAL      n=3811 net -734.50 R  PF 0.72 t -9.38
  HOLDOUT  n=3716 net -181.72 R  PF 0.92 t -2.29
  ALL      n=12030 net -1664.14 R (gross 224.17 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.79 t -11.55 avg -0.14 R/trade; win 3695/12030 = 31% (95% Wilson 30-32%) avg winner 1.72 R avg loser -0.96 R
  total -3,616 $ per ounce; exits {"target":3303,"signal":3662,"stop":5065}; avg hours held 4.05; time in market 25%; closed-trade drawdown -1732.62 R; drawdown incl. open losses -1733.23 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -3,616 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 3,800 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -94.43 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -1664.14 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 538.91; data-hole trades 19
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 12030.96, median avg -0.14 R, 5th -0.16, 95th -0.13; real avg -0.14 R -> percentile 57.60
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -1748.69 R PF 0.78 (baseline -1664.14 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.72
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4503 / 3811 / 3716
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -8.20
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 57.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1728.60 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -181.72 R PF 0.92
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -1748.69 R, t -12.16, development t -8.54, control percentile 54.40, gates FPFFFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -2125.36 R, t -14.77, development t -10.91, control percentile 68.40, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-L-T3: long only, stop 1 R, target 3 R ===
  DEV      n=4503 net -649.04 R  PF 0.81 t -6.09
  VAL      n=3811 net -692.93 R  PF 0.75 t -7.53
  HOLDOUT  n=3716 net -134.17 R  PF 0.94 t -1.43
  ALL      n=12030 net -1476.14 R (gross 412.17 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.83 t -8.72 avg -0.12 R/trade; win 3154/12030 = 26% (95% Wilson 25-27%) avg winner 2.22 R avg loser -0.96 R
  total -2,923 $ per ounce; exits {"target":2262,"signal":4386,"stop":5382}; avg hours held 4.87; time in market 30%; closed-trade drawdown -1593.67 R; drawdown incl. open losses -1594.04 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -2,923 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 3,129 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -91.57 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -1476.14 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 538.91; data-hole trades 19
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 12030.96, median avg -0.14 R, 5th -0.15, 95th -0.12; real avg -0.12 R -> percentile 94.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -1578.58 R PF 0.82 (baseline -1476.14 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.75
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4503 / 3811 / 3716
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -6.09
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 94.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1541.53 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -134.17 R PF 0.94
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -1578.58 R, t -9.35, development t -6.44, control percentile 91.80, gates FPFFFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -2000.22 R, t -11.88, development t -8.71, control percentile 93.20, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-L-T123: long only, stop 1 R, a third at 1 R, 2 R and 3 R ===
  DEV      n=4503 net -760.63 R  PF 0.73 t -9.26
  VAL      n=3811 net -730.83 R  PF 0.69 t -10.46
  HOLDOUT  n=3716 net -202.24 R  PF 0.90 t -2.88
  ALL      n=12030 net -1693.70 R (gross 194.61 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.76 t -13.14 avg -0.14 R/trade; win 4047/12030 = 34% (95% Wilson 33-34%) avg winner 1.34 R avg loser -0.89 R
  total -3,597 $ per ounce; exits {"target":10863,"signal":10673,"stop":14554}; avg hours held 4.87; time in market 30%; closed-trade drawdown -1739.16 R; drawdown incl. open losses -1739.62 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -3,597 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity n/a for the thirds (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -94.49 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -1693.70 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 538.91; data-hole trades 19
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 12030.96, median avg -0.14 R, 5th -0.15, 95th -0.13; real avg -0.14 R -> percentile 51.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -1773.81 R PF 0.75 (baseline -1693.70 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.69
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4503 / 3811 / 3716
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -9.26
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 51.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1747.85 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -202.24 R PF 0.90
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -1773.81 R, t -13.79, development t -9.62, control percentile 48.00, gates FPFFFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -2131.57 R, t -16.57, development t -12.08, control percentile 66.00, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-LS-N: long and short, no stop, no target ===
  DEV      n=9006 net -1548.68 R  PF 0.82 t -5.75
  VAL      n=7623 net -727.58 R  PF 0.89 t -2.68
  HOLDOUT  n=7432 net -497.63 R  PF 0.92 t -2.29
  ALL      n=24061 net -2773.89 R (gross 1025.74 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.87 t -6.31 avg -0.12 R/trade; win 6134/24061 = 25% (95% Wilson 25-26%) avg winner 2.98 R avg loser -1.17 R
  total -5,113 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":24060,"open":1}; avg hours held 8.13; time in market 100%; closed-trade drawdown -2978.58 R; drawdown incl. open losses -2979.38 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -5,113 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 7,304 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -99.71 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -697.16 R; shorts: n=12031 net -2076.73 R; trades per year 1077.86; data-hole trades 38
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 24061.92, median avg -0.15 R, 5th -0.18, 95th -0.12; real avg -0.12 R -> percentile 98.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -3150.48 R PF 0.85 (baseline -2773.89 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.89
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 9006 / 7623 / 7432
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -5.75
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 98.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -3172.98 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -497.63 R PF 0.92
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -3150.48 R, t -7.20, development t -6.26, control percentile 98.20, gates FPFPFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -3132.36 R, t -7.16, development t -6.75, control percentile 98.40, gates FPFPFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-LS-S: long and short, stop 1 R only ===
  DEV      n=9006 net -1460.66 R  PF 0.80 t -6.31
  VAL      n=7623 net -728.98 R  PF 0.87 t -2.95
  HOLDOUT  n=7432 net -420.05 R  PF 0.92 t -2.15
  ALL      n=24061 net -2609.68 R (gross 1189.95 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.86 t -6.68 avg -0.11 R/trade; win 5276/24061 = 22% (95% Wilson 21-22%) avg winner 2.93 R avg loser -0.96 R
  total -4,743 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":12618,"stop":11442,"open":1}; avg hours held 6.79; time in market 83%; closed-trade drawdown -2816.79 R; drawdown incl. open losses -2817.47 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -4,743 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 6,508 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -99.48 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -827.93 R; shorts: n=12031 net -1781.75 R; trades per year 1077.86; data-hole trades 38
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 24061.92, median avg -0.14 R, 5th -0.15, 95th -0.12; real avg -0.11 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -2921.07 R PF 0.84 (baseline -2609.68 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.87
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 9006 / 7623 / 7432
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -6.31
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -3005.59 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -420.05 R PF 0.92
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -2921.07 R, t -7.52, development t -6.80, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -2906.10 R, t -7.48, development t -7.29, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-LS-T1: long and short, stop 1 R, target 1 R ===
  DEV      n=9006 net -1976.28 R  PF 0.62 t -20.63
  VAL      n=7623 net -1361.58 R  PF 0.67 t -16.63
  HOLDOUT  n=7432 net -699.76 R  PF 0.81 t -8.61
  ALL      n=24061 net -4037.61 R (gross -237.98 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.69 t -26.89 avg -0.17 R/trade; win 10663/24061 = 44% (95% Wilson 44-45%) avg winner 0.86 R avg loser -0.99 R
  total -8,283 $ per ounce; exits {"target":10592,"signal":5217,"stop":8251,"open":1}; avg hours held 2.40; time in market 30%; closed-trade drawdown -4068.13 R; drawdown incl. open losses -4068.99 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -8,283 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 8,617 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -99.91 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -1940.82 R; shorts: n=12031 net -2096.79 R; trades per year 1077.86; data-hole trades 37
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 24061.92, median avg -0.15 R, 5th -0.16, 95th -0.14; real avg -0.17 R -> percentile 0.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -4141.41 R PF 0.69 (baseline -4037.61 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.67
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 9006 / 7623 / 7432
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -20.63
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 0.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -4088.00 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -699.76 R PF 0.81
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -4141.41 R, t -27.57, development t -20.99, control percentile 0.20, gates FPFFFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -4136.75 R, t -27.45, development t -21.12, control percentile 0.40, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-LS-T2: long and short, stop 1 R, target 2 R ===
  DEV      n=9006 net -1825.26 R  PF 0.72 t -14.33
  VAL      n=7623 net -1316.20 R  PF 0.75 t -11.70
  HOLDOUT  n=7432 net -673.29 R  PF 0.86 t -6.06
  ALL      n=24061 net -3814.75 R (gross -15.12 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.77 t -18.78 avg -0.16 R/trade; win 7238/24061 = 30% (95% Wilson 30-31%) avg winner 1.72 R avg loser -0.97 R
  total -7,971 $ per ounce; exits {"target":6541,"signal":7267,"stop":10252,"open":1}; avg hours held 3.76; time in market 46%; closed-trade drawdown -3862.34 R; drawdown incl. open losses -3863.20 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -7,971 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 8,413 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -99.89 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -1664.14 R; shorts: n=12031 net -2150.61 R; trades per year 1077.86; data-hole trades 38
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 24061.92, median avg -0.15 R, 5th -0.17, 95th -0.14; real avg -0.16 R -> percentile 23.60
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -3976.22 R PF 0.76 (baseline -3814.75 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.75
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 9006 / 7623 / 7432
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -14.33
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 23.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -3880.63 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -673.29 R PF 0.86
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -3976.22 R, t -19.59, development t -14.76, control percentile 21.40, gates FPFFFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -3965.31 R, t -19.51, development t -15.13, control percentile 24.00, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-LS-T3: long and short, stop 1 R, target 3 R ===
  DEV      n=9006 net -1788.36 R  PF 0.74 t -12.03
  VAL      n=7623 net -1203.07 R  PF 0.78 t -9.01
  HOLDOUT  n=7432 net -616.39 R  PF 0.88 t -4.72
  ALL      n=24061 net -3607.82 R (gross 191.81 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.79 t -15.11 avg -0.15 R/trade; win 6077/24061 = 25% (95% Wilson 25-26%) avg winner 2.25 R avg loser -0.96 R
  total -7,152 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":8642,"target":4477,"stop":10941,"open":1}; avg hours held 4.53; time in market 56%; closed-trade drawdown -3690.21 R; drawdown incl. open losses -3690.93 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -7,152 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 7,763 (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -99.86 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -1476.14 R; shorts: n=12031 net -2131.68 R; trades per year 1077.86; data-hole trades 38
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 24061.92, median avg -0.15 R, 5th -0.16, 95th -0.14; real avg -0.15 R -> percentile 56.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -3803.24 R PF 0.78 (baseline -3607.82 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.78
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 9006 / 7623 / 7432
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -12.03
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 56.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -3680.60 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -616.39 R PF 0.88
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -3803.24 R, t -15.95, development t -12.49, control percentile 51.40, gates FPFFFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -3777.30 R, t -15.83, development t -12.82, control percentile 56.00, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-M15-LS-T123: long and short, stop 1 R, a third at 1 R, 2 R and 3 R ===
  DEV      n=9006 net -1863.30 R  PF 0.68 t -16.32
  VAL      n=7623 net -1293.62 R  PF 0.72 t -12.93
  HOLDOUT  n=7432 net -663.14 R  PF 0.84 t -6.72
  ALL      n=24061 net -3820.06 R (gross -20.43 R, cost 0.16 R per trade) PF 0.73 t -21.08 avg -0.16 R/trade; win 7924/24061 = 33% (95% Wilson 32-34%) avg winner 1.33 R avg loser -0.89 R
  total -7,802 $ per ounce; exits {"target":21610,"signal":21126,"stop":29444,"open":3}; avg hours held 4.53; time in market 56%; closed-trade drawdown -3863.55 R; drawdown incl. open losses -3864.49 R; worst open loss in one trade -43.53 R
  total vs buy and hold: -7,802 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,726); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity n/a for the thirds (buy and hold 1,628); compounded growth -99.89 % (buy and hold 971.41 %)
  longs: n=12030 net -1693.70 R; shorts: n=12031 net -2126.36 R; trades per year 1077.86; data-hole trades 38
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 24061.92, median avg -0.15 R, 5th -0.16, 95th -0.14; real avg -0.16 R -> percentile 19.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -3973.62 R PF 0.73 (baseline -3820.06 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.72
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 9006 / 7623 / 7432
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -16.32
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 19.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -3874.99 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -663.14 R PF 0.84
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -3973.62 R, t -21.96, development t -16.79, control percentile 18.20, gates FPFFFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -3959.79 R, t -21.84, development t -17.12, control percentile 20.60, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

########## XAUUSD spot, 1-hour bars: 7067434 minute bars -> 129857 hourly bars 2004-06-11 01:00 .. 2026-10-07 17:00; 5730 crosses (2865 golden, 2865 death); averages exist from 2004-06-14
  median R = 1.5 x ATR(14): 5.19 points; cost per trade in R (median): 0.06
  controls: 500 runs x 12 variants (plus the two cost scenarios) in 184 s

=== GX-H1-L-N: long only, no stop, no target ===
  DEV      n=1034 net 326.62 R  PF 1.45 t 3.80
  VAL      n= 923 net 32.40 R  PF 1.05 t 0.39
  HOLDOUT  n= 908 net 250.85 R  PF 1.39 t 2.91
  ALL      n=2865 net 609.87 R (gross 810.10 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.29 t 4.12 avg 0.21 R/trade; win 886/2865 = 31% (95% Wilson 29-33%) avg winner 3.02 R avg loser -1.04 R
  total 3,626 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":2865}; avg hours held 36.98; time in market 54%; closed-trade drawdown -54.59 R; drawdown incl. open losses -56.98 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: 3,626 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 901 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 633.26 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 609.87 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 128.39; data-hole trades 18
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 2864.96, median avg 0.07 R, 5th 0.02, 95th 0.13; real avg 0.21 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 513.50 R PF 1.24 (baseline 609.87 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.05
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1034 / 923 / 908
  [PASS] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 3.80
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 391.95 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 250.85 R PF 1.39
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net 513.50 R, t 3.52, development t 3.44, control percentile 100.00, gates FPPPPP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net 29.35 R, t 0.21, development t 0.13, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFP -> Buried

=== GX-H1-L-S: long only, stop 1 R only ===
  DEV      n=1034 net 253.50 R  PF 1.39 t 3.28
  VAL      n= 923 net 44.06 R  PF 1.07 t 0.56
  HOLDOUT  n= 908 net 231.83 R  PF 1.42 t 2.98
  ALL      n=2865 net 529.38 R (gross 729.62 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.29 t 3.92 avg 0.18 R/trade; win 783/2865 = 27% (95% Wilson 26-29%) avg winner 3.00 R avg loser -0.87 R
  total 3,326 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":1284,"signal":1581}; avg hours held 31.95; time in market 47%; closed-trade drawdown -55.40 R; drawdown incl. open losses -55.86 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: 3,326 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 930 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 414.54 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 529.38 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 128.39; data-hole trades 18
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 2864.96, median avg 0.01 R, 5th -0.03, 95th 0.06; real avg 0.18 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 446.35 R PF 1.24 (baseline 529.38 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.07
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1034 / 923 / 908
  [PASS] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 3.28
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 318.93 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 231.83 R PF 1.42
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net 446.35 R, t 3.36, development t 2.94, control percentile 100.00, gates FPPPPP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net 40.43 R, t 0.32, development t -0.18, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFP -> Buried

=== GX-H1-L-T1: long only, stop 1 R, target 1 R ===
  DEV      n=1034 net 6.53 R  PF 1.01 t 0.20
  VAL      n= 923 net -59.76 R  PF 0.87 t -2.08
  HOLDOUT  n= 908 net -20.99 R  PF 0.95 t -0.75
  ALL      n=2865 net -74.21 R (gross 126.02 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 0.95 t -1.45 avg -0.03 R/trade; win 1358/2865 = 47% (95% Wilson 46-49%) avg winner 0.95 R avg loser -0.90 R
  total -413 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":965,"signal":546,"target":1354}; avg hours held 9.31; time in market 14%; closed-trade drawdown -90.71 R; drawdown incl. open losses -91.55 R; worst open loss in one trade -6.04 R
  total vs buy and hold: -413 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 642 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth -30.55 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net -74.21 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 128.39; data-hole trades 18
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 2864.96, median avg -0.06 R, 5th -0.09, 95th -0.04; real avg -0.03 R -> percentile 99.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -96.70 R PF 0.93 (baseline -74.21 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.87
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1034 / 923 / 908
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.20
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 99.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -101.94 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -20.99 R PF 0.95
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -96.70 R, t -1.88, development t -0.04, control percentile 98.80, gates FPFPFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -206.56 R, t -3.99, development t -1.98, control percentile 95.80, gates FPFPFF -> Buried

=== GX-H1-L-T2: long only, stop 1 R, target 2 R ===
  DEV      n=1034 net 102.79 R  PF 1.17 t 2.29
  VAL      n= 923 net -49.46 R  PF 0.91 t -1.25
  HOLDOUT  n= 908 net 21.28 R  PF 1.04 t 0.54
  ALL      n=2865 net 74.61 R (gross 274.84 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.04 t 1.04 avg 0.03 R/trade; win 949/2865 = 33% (95% Wilson 31-35%) avg winner 1.86 R avg loser -0.88 R
  total 267 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":1196,"signal":770,"target":899}; avg hours held 14.78; time in market 22%; closed-trade drawdown -63.18 R; drawdown incl. open losses -63.26 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: 267 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 859 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 32.08 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 74.61 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 128.39; data-hole trades 18
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 2864.96, median avg -0.05 R, 5th -0.08, 95th -0.01; real avg 0.03 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 38.50 R PF 1.02 (baseline 74.61 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.91
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1034 / 923 / 908
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 2.29
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 42.86 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 21.28 R PF 1.04
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net 38.50 R, t 0.54, development t 2.02, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPPP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -133.43 R, t -1.86, development t -0.22, control percentile 99.60, gates FPFPFF -> Buried

=== GX-H1-L-T3: long only, stop 1 R, target 3 R ===
  DEV      n=1034 net 152.63 R  PF 1.24 t 2.83
  VAL      n= 923 net -38.16 R  PF 0.94 t -0.81
  HOLDOUT  n= 908 net 64.91 R  PF 1.12 t 1.36
  ALL      n=2865 net 179.38 R (gross 379.61 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.10 t 2.09 avg 0.06 R/trade; win 828/2865 = 29% (95% Wilson 27-31%) avg winner 2.37 R avg loser -0.88 R
  total 1,096 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":1260,"signal":977,"target":628}; avg hours held 18.92; time in market 28%; closed-trade drawdown -52.63 R; drawdown incl. open losses -52.71 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: 1,096 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 745 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 96.88 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 179.38 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 128.39; data-hole trades 18
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 2864.96, median avg -0.03 R, 5th -0.06, 95th 0.01; real avg 0.06 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 132.85 R PF 1.07 (baseline 179.38 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.94
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1034 / 923 / 908
  [PASS] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 2.83
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 136.15 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 64.91 R PF 1.12
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net 132.85 R, t 1.55, development t 2.54, control percentile 100.00, gates FPPPPP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -92.52 R, t -1.09, development t 0.10, control percentile 99.40, gates FPFPFP -> Buried

=== GX-H1-L-T123: long only, stop 1 R, a third at 1 R, 2 R and 3 R ===
  DEV      n=1034 net 87.32 R  PF 1.17 t 2.16
  VAL      n= 923 net -49.13 R  PF 0.90 t -1.40
  HOLDOUT  n= 908 net 21.73 R  PF 1.05 t 0.61
  ALL      n=2865 net 59.93 R (gross 260.16 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.04 t 0.93 avg 0.02 R/trade; win 1057/2865 = 37% (95% Wilson 35-39%) avg winner 1.45 R avg loser -0.81 R
  total 317 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":3421,"signal":2293,"target":2881}; avg hours held 18.92; time in market 28%; closed-trade drawdown -60.79 R; drawdown incl. open losses -61.19 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: 317 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity n/a for the thirds (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 22.93 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 59.93 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 128.39; data-hole trades 18
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 2864.96, median avg -0.05 R, 5th -0.08, 95th -0.01; real avg 0.02 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 24.88 R PF 1.02 (baseline 59.93 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.90
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1034 / 923 / 908
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 2.16
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 28.39 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 21.73 R PF 1.05
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net 24.88 R, t 0.39, development t 1.87, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -144.17 R, t -2.26, development t -0.57, control percentile 99.60, gates FPFPFF -> Buried

=== GX-H1-LS-N: long and short, no stop, no target ===
  DEV      n=2067 net 234.22 R  PF 1.14 t 1.99
  VAL      n=1846 net 58.07 R  PF 1.04 t 0.49
  HOLDOUT  n=1817 net 176.48 R  PF 1.13 t 1.64
  ALL      n=5730 net 468.76 R (gross 870.33 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.11 t 2.36 avg 0.08 R/trade; win 1653/5730 = 29% (95% Wilson 28-30%) avg winner 2.94 R avg loser -1.08 R
  total 3,526 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":5729,"open":1}; avg hours held 34.14; time in market 100%; closed-trade drawdown -91.27 R; drawdown incl. open losses -91.74 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: 3,526 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 1,204 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 269.13 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 609.87 R; shorts: n=2865 net -141.11 R; trades per year 256.78; data-hole trades 38
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 5729.92, median avg -0.06 R, 5th -0.11, 95th -0.00; real avg 0.08 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 291.20 R PF 1.07 (baseline 468.76 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.04
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2067 / 1846 / 1817
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.99
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 228.60 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 176.48 R PF 1.13
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net 291.20 R, t 1.48, development t 1.49, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPPP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net 228.95 R, t 1.17, development t 0.70, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFP -> Buried

=== GX-H1-LS-S: long and short, stop 1 R only ===
  DEV      n=2067 net 157.90 R  PF 1.11 t 1.52
  VAL      n=1846 net 128.63 R  PF 1.10 t 1.18
  HOLDOUT  n=1817 net 194.33 R  PF 1.17 t 2.01
  ALL      n=5730 net 480.87 R (gross 882.44 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.13 t 2.68 avg 0.08 R/trade; win 1448/5730 = 25% (95% Wilson 24-26%) avg winner 2.94 R avg loser -0.88 R
  total 2,811 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":2660,"signal":3069,"open":1}; avg hours held 28.77; time in market 84%; closed-trade drawdown -65.16 R; drawdown incl. open losses -65.99 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: 2,811 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 1,317 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 214.40 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 529.38 R; shorts: n=2865 net -48.52 R; trades per year 256.78; data-hole trades 38
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 5729.92, median avg -0.03 R, 5th -0.07, 95th 0.00; real avg 0.08 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 331.24 R PF 1.09 (baseline 480.87 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.10
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2067 / 1846 / 1817
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.52
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 244.97 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 194.33 R PF 1.17
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net 331.24 R, t 1.87, development t 1.05, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPPP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net 270.55 R, t 1.54, development t 0.21, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPPP -> Buried

=== GX-H1-LS-T1: long and short, stop 1 R, target 1 R ===
  DEV      n=2067 net -131.94 R  PF 0.87 t -2.95
  VAL      n=1846 net -68.83 R  PF 0.92 t -1.70
  HOLDOUT  n=1817 net -79.04 R  PF 0.91 t -1.99
  ALL      n=5730 net -279.81 R (gross 121.77 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 0.90 t -3.87 avg -0.05 R/trade; win 2660/5730 = 46% (95% Wilson 45-48%) avg winner 0.95 R avg loser -0.91 R
  total -1,642 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":1975,"target":2654,"signal":1101}; avg hours held 8.52; time in market 25%; closed-trade drawdown -293.88 R; drawdown incl. open losses -294.26 R; worst open loss in one trade -6.04 R
  total vs buy and hold: -1,642 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 1,971 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth -73.32 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net -74.21 R; shorts: n=2865 net -205.59 R; trades per year 256.78; data-hole trades 36
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 5729.92, median avg -0.07 R, 5th -0.09, 95th -0.05; real avg -0.05 R -> percentile 95.40
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -321.46 R PF 0.89 (baseline -279.81 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.92
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2067 / 1846 / 1817
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -2.95
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 95.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -309.24 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -79.04 R PF 0.91
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -321.46 R, t -4.44, development t -3.26, control percentile 95.20, gates FPFPFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -331.43 R, t -4.57, development t -3.66, control percentile 93.40, gates FPFFFF -> Buried

=== GX-H1-LS-T2: long and short, stop 1 R, target 2 R ===
  DEV      n=2067 net -24.60 R  PF 0.98 t -0.39
  VAL      n=1846 net -62.77 R  PF 0.94 t -1.11
  HOLDOUT  n=1817 net -20.92 R  PF 0.98 t -0.38
  ALL      n=5730 net -108.30 R (gross 293.27 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 0.97 t -1.07 avg -0.02 R/trade; win 1809/5730 = 32% (95% Wilson 30-33%) avg winner 1.88 R avg loser -0.89 R
  total -374 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":2472,"signal":1526,"target":1732}; avg hours held 13.46; time in market 39%; closed-trade drawdown -142.44 R; drawdown incl. open losses -142.83 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: -374 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 1,423 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth -38.70 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 74.61 R; shorts: n=2865 net -182.91 R; trades per year 256.78; data-hole trades 36
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 5729.92, median avg -0.06 R, 5th -0.09, 95th -0.04; real avg -0.02 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -174.78 R PF 0.95 (baseline -108.30 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.94
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2067 / 1846 / 1817
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.39
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -146.67 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -20.92 R PF 0.98
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -174.78 R, t -1.73, development t -0.73, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -193.14 R, t -1.91, development t -1.29, control percentile 99.60, gates FPFPFF -> Buried

=== GX-H1-LS-T3: long and short, stop 1 R, target 3 R ===
  DEV      n=2067 net 87.11 R  PF 1.06 t 1.15
  VAL      n=1846 net -1.37 R  PF 1.00 t -0.02
  HOLDOUT  n=1817 net 31.90 R  PF 1.03 t 0.48
  ALL      n=5730 net 117.65 R (gross 519.22 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.03 t 0.97 avg 0.02 R/trade; win 1562/5730 = 27% (95% Wilson 26-28%) avg winner 2.44 R avg loser -0.89 R
  total 1,170 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":2595,"signal":1902,"target":1233}; avg hours held 17.23; time in market 50%; closed-trade drawdown -97.18 R; drawdown incl. open losses -97.22 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: 1,170 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 1,014 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 59.22 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 179.38 R; shorts: n=2865 net -61.73 R; trades per year 256.78; data-hole trades 36
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 5729.92, median avg -0.06 R, 5th -0.08, 95th -0.03; real avg 0.02 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 32.01 R PF 1.01 (baseline 117.65 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.00
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2067 / 1846 / 1817
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.15
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 69.06 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 31.90 R PF 1.03
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net 32.01 R, t 0.27, development t 0.79, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFP -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net 3.86 R, t 0.03, development t 0.17, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFP -> Buried

=== GX-H1-LS-T123: long and short, stop 1 R, a third at 1 R, 2 R and 3 R ===
  DEV      n=2067 net -23.14 R  PF 0.98 t -0.41
  VAL      n=1846 net -44.32 R  PF 0.95 t -0.88
  HOLDOUT  n=1817 net -22.69 R  PF 0.98 t -0.46
  ALL      n=5730 net -90.15 R (gross 311.42 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 0.97 t -1.00 avg -0.02 R/trade; win 2007/5730 = 35% (95% Wilson 34-36%) avg winner 1.47 R avg loser -0.81 R
  total -282 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":7042,"target":5619,"signal":4529}; avg hours held 17.23; time in market 50%; closed-trade drawdown -119.48 R; drawdown incl. open losses -119.87 R; worst open loss in one trade -14.13 R
  total vs buy and hold: -282 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,727); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity n/a for the thirds (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth -34.92 % (buy and hold 974.49 %)
  longs: n=2865 net 59.93 R; shorts: n=2865 net -150.08 R; trades per year 256.78; data-hole trades 36
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 5729.92, median avg -0.06 R, 5th -0.09, 95th -0.04; real avg -0.02 R -> percentile 100.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -154.75 R PF 0.95 (baseline -90.15 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.95
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2067 / 1846 / 1817
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.41
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 100.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -125.22 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -22.69 R PF 0.98
  -> VERDICT Buried
  scenario A, 3% a year financing : net -154.75 R, t -1.72, development t -0.78, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFF -> Buried
  scenario B, current IC Markets swap: net -173.57 R, t -1.92, development t -1.37, control percentile 100.00, gates FPFPFF -> Buried

OVERALL: 24 variant-market results: 0 Inconclusive, 24 Buried, 0 Survivor.