Engulfing candle on XAUUSD 1-hour bars (spec eg_spec.md). Run 2026-10-21T19:47:30.661Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R (entry to the engulfing bar's extreme); $0.30 an ounce a round trip. data: 7067434 one-minute bars, 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York; 129857 1-hour bars; patterns counted from bar 500 (2004-07-14 23:00) engulfing patterns: 9001 bullish, 8822 bearish (13.8% of bars); by year: 2004 161 | 2005 345 | 2006 405 | 2007 515 | 2008 624 | 2009 684 | 2010 654 | 2011 659 | 2012 762 | 2013 866 | 2014 913 | 2015 913 | 2016 895 | 2017 928 | 2018 991 | 2019 1060 | 2020 978 | 2021 1036 | 2022 994 | 2023 932 | 2024 944 | 2025 757 | 2026 807 R terciles of EG-1R (descriptive, used for every variant): small < $2.09 <= medium < $4.30 <= large === EG-1R: every pattern, target 1R === DEV n= 3579 net -662.78 R avg -0.185 R PF 0.70 t -7.46 VAL n= 4316 net -696.65 R avg -0.161 R PF 0.72 t -10.29 HOLDOUT n= 4291 net -272.44 R avg -0.063 R PF 0.88 t -3.70 ALL n=12186 net -1631.88 R avg -0.134 R (gross 0.012 R, cost 0.146 R a trade); $ per ounce -2269.08; PF 0.77 t -12.19; drawdown on closed trades -1659.50 R win rate 49.9% (95% 49.0-50.8%); ended by stop 6072 (49.8%), target 6113 (50.2%), end of data 1 (0.0%); R median $2.98; hours held median 1.42; without the 10 best -1745.77 R; scenario A (3%/yr) net -1711.66 R longs n=6207 net -832.24 R | shorts n=5979 net -799.63 R by R size (descriptive): small n=4053 avg -0.278 R (gross 0.016) | medium n=4057 avg -0.098 R (gross 0.005) | large n=4076 avg -0.026 R (gross 0.015) by year (n, net R): 2004 141 -42.41 | 2005 289 -109.09 | 2006 328 -53.46 | 2007 391 -132.35 | 2008 468 -13.77 | 2009 498 -110.46 | 2010 502 -111.59 | 2011 480 -14.68 | 2012 482 -74.98 | 2013 550 -84.87 | 2014 600 -127.39 | 2015 575 -80.26 | 2016 646 -89.70 | 2017 630 -119.40 | 2018 636 -105.32 | 2019 679 -89.71 | 2020 661 -53.89 | 2021 635 -97.23 | 2022 645 -36.33 | 2023 603 -54.50 | 2024 649 -38.46 | 2025 535 0.69 | 2026 563 7.28 control (entries moved to other days, same time, same distances, 500 runs, 10 s): mean trades 6632.86, median avg -0.171 R, 5-95% -0.195 .. -0.149 R; real avg -0.134 R at percentile 99.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.72 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 3579 / 4316 / 4291 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -7.46 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 99.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1745.77 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -272.44 R PF 0.88 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 680 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.138 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === EG-2R: every pattern, target 2R === DEV n= 2718 net -410.71 R avg -0.151 R PF 0.81 t -4.16 VAL n= 3127 net -435.37 R avg -0.139 R PF 0.82 t -5.37 HOLDOUT n= 2980 net -152.44 R avg -0.051 R PF 0.93 t -1.94 ALL n=8825 net -998.52 R avg -0.113 R (gross 0.028 R, cost 0.142 R a trade); $ per ounce -1995.75; PF 0.85 t -6.66; drawdown on closed trades -1003.36 R win rate 33.9% (95% 33.0-34.9%); ended by stop 5824 (66.0%), target 3000 (34.0%), end of data 1 (0.0%); R median $3.07; hours held median 2.77; without the 10 best -1115.86 R; scenario A (3%/yr) net -1098.79 R longs n=4495 net -427.75 R | shorts n=4330 net -570.77 R by R size (descriptive): small n=2821 avg -0.266 R (gross 0.026) | medium n=2917 avg -0.101 R (gross 0.002) | large n=3087 avg 0.015 R (gross 0.056) by year (n, net R): 2004 111 -41.62 | 2005 230 -82.21 | 2006 281 -13.77 | 2007 299 -99.45 | 2008 392 2.91 | 2009 398 -86.38 | 2010 382 -73.04 | 2011 335 2.22 | 2012 290 -19.37 | 2013 420 -76.18 | 2014 439 -92.05 | 2015 414 -34.51 | 2016 441 -54.10 | 2017 447 -28.13 | 2018 467 -72.26 | 2019 499 -78.15 | 2020 455 -1.71 | 2021 399 -25.33 | 2022 470 -66.15 | 2023 381 -5.12 | 2024 472 -1.15 | 2025 411 -22.19 | 2026 392 -30.80 control (entries moved to other days, same time, same distances, 500 runs, 8 s): mean trades 4447.31, median avg -0.161 R, 5-95% -0.197 .. -0.123 R; real avg -0.113 R at percentile 98.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.82 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2718 / 3127 / 2980 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -4.16 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 98.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1115.86 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -152.44 R PF 0.93 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 726 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.141 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === EG-2R-REV: target 2R, only after a move the other way (P beyond its 20-bar average) === DEV n= 1878 net -221.58 R avg -0.118 R PF 0.85 t -2.56 VAL n= 2275 net -318.15 R avg -0.140 R PF 0.82 t -4.59 HOLDOUT n= 2123 net -176.48 R avg -0.083 R PF 0.89 t -2.67 ALL n=6276 net -716.22 R avg -0.114 R (gross 0.031 R, cost 0.145 R a trade); $ per ounce -1717.56; PF 0.85 t -5.55; drawdown on closed trades -723.53 R win rate 34.1% (95% 32.9-35.2%); ended by target 2142 (34.1%), stop 4134 (65.9%); R median $2.96; hours held median 2.93; without the 10 best -813.27 R; scenario A (3%/yr) net -791.48 R longs n=3057 net -268.79 R | shorts n=3219 net -447.43 R by R size (descriptive): small n=2092 avg -0.249 R (gross 0.042) | medium n=2061 avg -0.084 R (gross 0.019) | large n=2123 avg -0.010 R (gross 0.031) by year (n, net R): 2004 75 -19.73 | 2005 169 -52.64 | 2006 188 -31.66 | 2007 206 -77.30 | 2008 249 67.12 | 2009 262 -37.87 | 2010 273 -69.24 | 2011 233 7.61 | 2012 223 -7.87 | 2013 325 -28.27 | 2014 293 -33.42 | 2015 307 -34.24 | 2016 315 -32.62 | 2017 317 -95.30 | 2018 369 -50.78 | 2019 349 -43.53 | 2020 327 -27.96 | 2021 292 -38.29 | 2022 320 -21.04 | 2023 301 -12.87 | 2024 348 -18.73 | 2025 277 -33.32 | 2026 258 -24.27 control (entries moved to other days, same time, same distances, 500 runs, 7 s): mean trades 3553.58, median avg -0.160 R, 5-95% -0.202 .. -0.119 R; real avg -0.114 R at percentile 96.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.82 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1878 / 2275 / 2123 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -2.56 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 96.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -813.27 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -176.48 R PF 0.89 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 513 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.144 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === EG-2R-200: target 2R, only with the 200-bar EMA trend === DEV n= 1807 net -226.38 R avg -0.125 R PF 0.84 t -3.55 VAL n= 2308 net -281.67 R avg -0.122 R PF 0.84 t -4.00 HOLDOUT n= 2139 net -40.46 R avg -0.019 R PF 0.97 t -0.60 ALL n=6254 net -548.52 R avg -0.088 R (gross 0.056 R, cost 0.143 R a trade); $ per ounce -237.50; PF 0.88 t -4.71; drawdown on closed trades -576.00 R win rate 35.2% (95% 34.0-36.4%); ended by target 2202 (35.2%), stop 4051 (64.8%), end of data 1 (0.0%); R median $3.00; hours held median 2.60; without the 10 best -588.50 R; scenario A (3%/yr) net -618.23 R longs n=3540 net -255.68 R | shorts n=2714 net -292.83 R by R size (descriptive): small n=2081 avg -0.239 R (gross 0.049) | medium n=2051 avg -0.072 R (gross 0.031) | large n=2122 avg 0.046 R (gross 0.086) by year (n, net R): 2004 67 -19.63 | 2005 126 -27.58 | 2006 171 -5.26 | 2007 188 -59.70 | 2008 251 -20.99 | 2009 261 -40.46 | 2010 261 -48.72 | 2011 259 4.69 | 2012 223 -8.75 | 2013 306 -41.20 | 2014 318 -71.43 | 2015 298 -35.23 | 2016 300 2.66 | 2017 339 -29.99 | 2018 367 -52.15 | 2019 380 -54.32 | 2020 322 -21.95 | 2021 301 -23.11 | 2022 316 0.10 | 2023 296 -4.67 | 2024 323 17.12 | 2025 302 -3.21 | 2026 279 -4.74 control (entries moved to other days, same time, same distances, 500 runs, 7 s): mean trades 3494.78, median avg -0.156 R, 5-95% -0.197 .. -0.110 R; real avg -0.088 R at percentile 99.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.84 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1807 / 2308 / 2139 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -3.55 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 99.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -588.50 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -40.46 R PF 0.97 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 453 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.102 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)