Fibonacci 61.8% pullback on EUR/USD 1-hour bars (spec fb_spec.md). Run 2026-10-08T21:32:40.688Z; 500 control runs per variant
data: 8326700 one-minute bars, 141042 one-hour bars, 2004-01-01T01:00 .. 2026-09-28T16:00 New York (labels as read; see the amendment)

=== FB-L: long only; stop at the start of the impulse, target at its end ===
  impulses: 18683 swings started an impulse, 5277 qualified (>= 3 x ATR) and placed an order, 1927 filled; how the qualified ones ended: {"filled":1927,"new swing":3293,"through start":51,"gap through start":6}; same-minute long/short collisions 0, gap-through-start cancels 6
  DEV      n=  674 net -21.49 R  avg -0.032 R  PF 0.95 t -0.64
  VAL      n=  656 net -8.80 R  avg -0.013 R  PF 0.98 t -0.26
  HOLDOUT  n=  597 net -56.34 R  avg -0.094 R  PF 0.86 t -1.77
  ALL      n=1927 net -86.63 R avg -0.045 R (gross 0.006 R, cost 0.051 R a trade); net -2385.68 pips, avg -1.24 pips; PF 0.93 t -1.50
  win rate 729/1927 = 37.8% (95% Wilson 35.7-40.0%); ended by {"stop":1198,"target":728,"end of data":1}; median R 23.19 pips; avg hours held 12.32; avg rollovers held 0.53 (Wednesday counts three)
  longs  n=1927 net -86.63 R avg -0.045 R
  drawdown on closed trades -103.62 R; including open losses -103.72 R; worst adverse move inside a trade 20.25 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 61 3.96 | 2005 60 -3.89 | 2006 49 4.58 | 2007 83 -14.16 | 2008 79 -4.71 | 2009 73 -9.49 | 2010 83 -9.12 | 2011 93 5.07 | 2012 93 6.28 | 2013 91 0.20 | 2014 96 -20.50 | 2015 93 3.28 | 2016 105 10.56 | 2017 73 23.60 | 2018 97 -4.41 | 2019 101 -21.52 | 2020 89 -10.50 | 2021 79 -24.65 | 2022 94 -2.81 | 2023 95 16.85 | 2024 84 -24.00 | 2025 89 -2.08 | 2026 67 -9.17
  control (time-shifted setups, 500 runs, 14 s): mean trades 1134.21, median avg -0.057 R, 5-95% -0.135 .. 0.031 R; real avg -0.045 R at percentile 60.00
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.98
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 674 / 656 / 597
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -0.64
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 60.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -122.00 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -56.34 R PF 0.86
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 16 trades touch a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.048 R, DEV t -0.79, VAL PF 0.99, holdout -59.00 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  clock invariance check: 609 weeks moved by +60 min; 1927 vs 1927 trades, 0 differ in price or R, 911 have time stamps moved by 60 min, 0 change period -> PASSED

=== FB-LS: long and short; stop at the start of the impulse, target at its end ===
  impulses: 37158 swings started an impulse, 10543 qualified (>= 3 x ATR) and placed an order, 3374 filled; how the qualified ones ended: {"filled":3374,"through start":271,"new swing":6890,"gap through start":8}; same-minute long/short collisions 0, gap-through-start cancels 8
  DEV      n= 1181 net -185.79 R  avg -0.157 R  PF 0.77 t -4.29
  VAL      n= 1116 net 5.37 R  avg 0.005 R  PF 1.01 t 0.12
  HOLDOUT  n= 1077 net -60.72 R  avg -0.056 R  PF 0.91 t -1.42
  ALL      n=3374 net -241.15 R avg -0.071 R (gross -0.022 R, cost 0.049 R a trade); net -7033.48 pips, avg -2.08 pips; PF 0.89 t -3.18
  win rate 1244/3374 = 36.9% (95% Wilson 35.3-38.5%); ended by {"target":1243,"stop":2130,"end of data":1}; median R 23.61 pips; avg hours held 13.14; avg rollovers held 0.56 (Wednesday counts three)
  longs  n=1704 net -72.87 R avg -0.043 R | shorts n=1670 net -168.27 R avg -0.101 R
  drawdown on closed trades -267.93 R; including open losses -268.21 R; worst adverse move inside a trade 20.25 R
  by year (n, net R): 2004 95 -4.63 | 2005 112 -13.59 | 2006 93 -14.80 | 2007 148 -38.02 | 2008 139 -40.32 | 2009 131 -6.03 | 2010 150 -35.64 | 2011 157 -28.20 | 2012 156 -4.56 | 2013 146 -30.15 | 2014 166 -12.86 | 2015 165 17.86 | 2016 158 10.41 | 2017 151 23.53 | 2018 168 6.32 | 2019 162 -9.73 | 2020 165 -21.57 | 2021 144 -9.00 | 2022 162 -9.34 | 2023 165 11.46 | 2024 165 -31.22 | 2025 165 7.15 | 2026 111 -8.20
  control (time-shifted setups, 500 runs, 23 s): mean trades 2266.72, median avg -0.058 R, 5-95% -0.106 .. 0.011 R; real avg -0.071 R at percentile 40.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.01
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1181 / 1116 / 1077
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -4.29
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 40.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -284.19 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -60.72 R PF 0.91
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 25 trades touch a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.075 R, DEV t -4.44, VAL PF 1.01, holdout -64.77 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  clock invariance check: 609 weeks moved by +60 min; 3374 vs 3374 trades, 0 differ in price or R, 1577 have time stamps moved by 60 min, 0 change period -> PASSED

buy and hold EUR/USD over the same data, for reference: 1.2593 -> 1.13685 = -1225 pips (no carry)