XAUUSD M5 trend pullback (spec mtp_spec.md, frozen 2026-10-28). Run 2026-10-28T13:28:36.557Z; 500 control runs per variant. Dollars per ounce after $0.30 a round trip; window 08:00 London to 11:30 New York; stop at the pullback low minus $0.30, no trade under a $2.00 stop.
data: 7067434 minutes 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (clock corrected); 1499111 five-minute bars; 129857 one-hour bars; 4991 usable days (window coverage >= 80%)
  usable days / weekdays with data, by year: 2004 4/140 | 2005 2/253 | 2006 12/251 | 2007 187/259 | 2008 254/258 | 2009 256/259 | 2010 244/258 | 2011 240/259 | 2012 243/259 | 2013 258/259 | 2014 258/258 | 2015 257/258 | 2016 258/259 | 2017 257/258 | 2018 258/259 | 2019 258/260 | 2020 259/260 | 2021 257/258 | 2022 258/259 | 2023 257/259 | 2024 259/261 | 2025 257/260 | 2026 198/199

=== MTP-L-1.5R: long, target 1.5R ===
  signals: signals in the window 30542, stop under the minimum 8221, traded 2423, already traded that day 19897, no entry minute in the window 1
  DEV      n= 730 net -$268  avg -$0.37  PF 0.80 t -2.73
  VAL      n= 669 net -$195  avg -$0.29  PF 0.82 t -2.31
  HOLDOUT  n=1024 net -$345  avg -$0.34  PF 0.86 t -2.02
  ALL      n=2423 net -$807 avg -$0.33 an ounce a trade (gross -$0.03); in R: net -0.107, gross 0.000, cost 0.107; PF 0.83 t -3.77; drawdown on closed trades -$827
  winners 40.4% (95% 38.5-42.4%); ended by window end 273 (11.3%), stop 1311 (54.1%), target 839 (34.6%)
  stop median +$2.62 an ounce; minutes held median 49; the 10 best +$188, without them -$996
  costs: before -$0.03 | $0.30 -$0.33 | $0.45 -$0.48 | $0.75 -$0.78 a trade
  window part: London only (entries to 08:00 New York) n=1563 avg -$0.39 | overlap with New York n=860 avg -$0.23; thin years 2004-2007 n=69 avg -$0.11
  by year (n, net): 2004 1 -$0 | 2006 2 -$3 | 2007 66 -$5 | 2008 129 -$121 | 2009 146 -$85 | 2010 133 -$1 | 2011 130 -$26 | 2012 123 -$27 | 2013 82 -$27 | 2014 94 -$49 | 2015 83 -$27 | 2016 118 -$20 | 2017 99 +$11 | 2018 72 -$3 | 2019 121 -$80 | 2020 173 -$34 | 2021 133 -$55 | 2022 122 +$0 | 2023 139 -$105 | 2024 169 -$112 | 2025 190 -$7 | 2026 98 -$33
  by New York hour of entry (n, avg): 03h 610 -$0.51 | 04h 312 +$0.12 | 05h 187 -$0.30 | 06h 202 -$0.79 | 07h 252 -$0.47 | 08h 367 -$0.34 | 09h 275 -$0.32 | 10h 157 +$0.22 | 11h 61 -$0.35
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 2422.96, median avg -$0.36, 5-95% -$0.49 .. -$0.22; real avg -$0.33 at percentile 62.80
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.82
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 730 / 669 / 1024
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -2.73
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 62.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$996
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$345 PF 0.86
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 12 trades touch a known hole window (4 hours before the entry to the exit); without them avg -$0.34, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  uncorrected clock: n=2423 avg -$0.33, gates 1/6 (control percentile against the corrected-clock control) -> Buried
  minimum-stop sensitivity (descriptive, same signals): $0: n=2878 avg -$0.29 cost 0.207 R t -4.37 | $1: n=2843 avg -$0.28 cost 0.170 R t -4.13 | $3: n=1820 avg -$0.44 cost 0.075 R t -3.45 | $5: n=931 avg -$0.21 cost 0.046 R t -0.86

=== MTP-L-2R: long, target 2R ===
  signals: signals in the window 30542, stop under the minimum 8221, traded 2423, already traded that day 19897, no entry minute in the window 1
  DEV      n= 730 net -$292  avg -$0.40  PF 0.80 t -2.74
  VAL      n= 669 net -$210  avg -$0.31  PF 0.82 t -2.27
  HOLDOUT  n=1024 net -$371  avg -$0.36  PF 0.86 t -1.94
  ALL      n=2423 net -$873 avg -$0.36 an ounce a trade (gross -$0.06); in R: net -0.117, gross -0.010, cost 0.107; PF 0.83 t -3.67; drawdown on closed trades -$894
  winners 35.2% (95% 33.3-37.1%); ended by window end 342 (14.1%), stop 1433 (59.1%), target 648 (26.7%)
  stop median +$2.62 an ounce; minutes held median 61; the 10 best +$231, without them -$1,104
  costs: before -$0.06 | $0.30 -$0.36 | $0.45 -$0.51 | $0.75 -$0.81 a trade
  window part: London only (entries to 08:00 New York) n=1563 avg -$0.42 | overlap with New York n=860 avg -$0.26; thin years 2004-2007 n=69 avg +$0.05
  by year (n, net): 2004 1 -$0 | 2006 2 -$3 | 2007 66 +$6 | 2008 129 -$118 | 2009 146 -$91 | 2010 133 +$16 | 2011 130 -$31 | 2012 123 -$72 | 2013 82 -$41 | 2014 94 -$52 | 2015 83 -$11 | 2016 118 -$23 | 2017 99 +$7 | 2018 72 -$20 | 2019 121 -$69 | 2020 173 -$5 | 2021 133 -$57 | 2022 122 -$24 | 2023 139 -$139 | 2024 169 -$64 | 2025 190 -$52 | 2026 98 -$31
  by New York hour of entry (n, avg): 03h 610 -$0.58 | 04h 312 +$0.20 | 05h 187 -$0.12 | 06h 202 -$1.09 | 07h 252 -$0.46 | 08h 367 -$0.46 | 09h 275 -$0.30 | 10h 157 +$0.35 | 11h 61 -$0.48
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 2422.96, median avg -$0.35, 5-95% -$0.49 .. -$0.22; real avg -$0.36 at percentile 47.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.82
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 730 / 669 / 1024
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -2.74
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 47.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$1,104
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$371 PF 0.86
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 12 trades touch a known hole window (4 hours before the entry to the exit); without them avg -$0.37, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  uncorrected clock: n=2423 avg -$0.36, gates 1/6 (control percentile against the corrected-clock control) -> Buried
  minimum-stop sensitivity (descriptive, same signals): $0: n=2878 avg -$0.29 cost 0.207 R t -3.98 | $1: n=2843 avg -$0.29 cost 0.170 R t -3.83 | $3: n=1820 avg -$0.46 cost 0.075 R t -3.31 | $5: n=931 avg -$0.23 cost 0.046 R t -0.86

=== MTP-S-1.5R: short, target 1.5R ===
  signals: signals in the window 25091, stop under the minimum 6784, traded 1988, already traded that day 16319
  DEV      n= 556 net -$169  avg -$0.30  PF 0.84 t -1.83
  VAL      n= 701 net -$180  avg -$0.26  PF 0.84 t -2.09
  HOLDOUT  n= 731 net -$67  avg -$0.09  PF 0.96 t -0.34
  ALL      n=1988 net -$416 avg -$0.21 an ounce a trade (gross +$0.09); in R: net -0.074, gross 0.033, cost 0.107; PF 0.90 t -1.77; drawdown on closed trades -$590
  winners 41.9% (95% 39.8-44.1%); ended by window end 211 (10.6%), target 727 (36.6%), stop 1050 (52.8%)
  stop median +$2.60 an ounce; minutes held median 45; the 10 best +$319, without them -$735
  costs: before +$0.09 | $0.30 -$0.21 | $0.45 -$0.36 | $0.75 -$0.66 a trade
  window part: London only (entries to 08:00 New York) n=1286 avg -$0.16 | overlap with New York n=702 avg -$0.30; thin years 2004-2007 n=48 avg -$0.18
  by year (n, net): 2006 5 -$3 | 2007 43 -$6 | 2008 119 -$40 | 2009 99 -$40 | 2010 90 -$72 | 2011 96 -$57 | 2012 104 +$48 | 2013 148 -$14 | 2014 105 -$36 | 2015 128 +$46 | 2016 106 -$53 | 2017 70 -$25 | 2018 72 -$46 | 2019 72 -$53 | 2020 91 -$54 | 2021 126 -$24 | 2022 128 -$46 | 2023 108 -$4 | 2024 97 -$65 | 2025 74 +$91 | 2026 107 +$36
  by New York hour of entry (n, avg): 03h 477 -$0.03 | 04h 265 -$0.08 | 05h 165 -$0.52 | 06h 171 -$0.05 | 07h 208 -$0.35 | 08h 312 -$0.32 | 09h 193 -$0.28 | 10h 149 -$0.35 | 11h 48 -$0.15
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 1987.97, median avg -$0.23, 5-95% -$0.36 .. -$0.10; real avg -$0.21 at percentile 58.80
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.84
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 556 / 701 / 731
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.83
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 58.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$735
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$67 PF 0.96
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 4 trades touch a known hole window (4 hours before the entry to the exit); without them avg -$0.21, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  uncorrected clock: n=1989 avg -$0.23, gates 1/6 (control percentile against the corrected-clock control) -> Buried
  minimum-stop sensitivity (descriptive, same signals): $0: n=2374 avg -$0.20 cost 0.210 R t -2.19 | $1: n=2343 avg -$0.17 cost 0.172 R t -1.85 | $3: n=1508 avg -$0.51 cost 0.075 R t -3.10 | $5: n=783 avg +$0.17 cost 0.046 R t 0.52

=== MTP-S-2R: short, target 2R ===
  signals: signals in the window 25091, stop under the minimum 6784, traded 1988, already traded that day 16319
  DEV      n= 556 net -$157  avg -$0.28  PF 0.86 t -1.53
  VAL      n= 701 net -$132  avg -$0.19  PF 0.89 t -1.38
  HOLDOUT  n= 731 net -$117  avg -$0.16  PF 0.94 t -0.55
  ALL      n=1988 net -$406 avg -$0.20 an ounce a trade (gross +$0.10); in R: net -0.066, gross 0.041, cost 0.107; PF 0.91 t -1.59; drawdown on closed trades -$573
  winners 36.9% (95% 34.8-39.1%); ended by window end 283 (14.2%), target 570 (28.7%), stop 1135 (57.1%)
  stop median +$2.60 an ounce; minutes held median 56; the 10 best +$349, without them -$755
  costs: before +$0.10 | $0.30 -$0.20 | $0.45 -$0.35 | $0.75 -$0.65 a trade
  window part: London only (entries to 08:00 New York) n=1286 avg -$0.13 | overlap with New York n=702 avg -$0.34; thin years 2004-2007 n=48 avg -$0.53
  by year (n, net): 2006 5 -$2 | 2007 43 -$24 | 2008 119 -$5 | 2009 99 -$36 | 2010 90 -$65 | 2011 96 -$80 | 2012 104 +$54 | 2013 148 +$6 | 2014 105 -$35 | 2015 128 +$69 | 2016 106 -$27 | 2017 70 -$32 | 2018 72 -$47 | 2019 72 -$68 | 2020 91 -$49 | 2021 126 -$51 | 2022 128 -$29 | 2023 108 -$45 | 2024 97 -$61 | 2025 74 +$4 | 2026 107 +$114
  by New York hour of entry (n, avg): 03h 477 +$0.03 | 04h 265 -$0.06 | 05h 165 -$0.34 | 06h 171 +$0.12 | 07h 208 -$0.62 | 08h 312 -$0.39 | 09h 193 -$0.26 | 10h 149 -$0.45 | 11h 48 -$0.03
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 1987.97, median avg -$0.22, 5-95% -$0.36 .. -$0.07; real avg -$0.20 at percentile 58.40
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.89
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 556 / 701 / 731
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.53
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 58.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$755
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$117 PF 0.94
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 4 trades touch a known hole window (4 hours before the entry to the exit); without them avg -$0.20, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  uncorrected clock: n=1989 avg -$0.23, gates 1/6 (control percentile against the corrected-clock control) -> Buried
  minimum-stop sensitivity (descriptive, same signals): $0: n=2374 avg -$0.16 cost 0.210 R t -1.60 | $1: n=2343 avg -$0.14 cost 0.172 R t -1.40 | $3: n=1508 avg -$0.54 cost 0.075 R t -3.06 | $5: n=783 avg +$0.17 cost 0.046 R t 0.48