Golden cross on 1-hour bars (spec gh_cross_spec.md, 2026-10-08). Run 2026-10-08T07:24:34.973Z; 500 control runs per variant

########## ES futures: 2378027 minute bars -> 39787 hourly bars 2020-01-01 19:00 .. 2026-09-25 17:00; 266 crosses (133 golden, 133 death); averages exist from 2020-01-14
  median R = 1.5 x ATR(14): 17.29 points; cost per trade in R (median): 0.04
  controls: 500 runs x 12 variants in 6 s

=== ES-GH-L-N: long only, no stop, no target ===
  DEV      n=  79 net -2.03 R  PF 0.99 t -0.03
  VAL      n=  25 net 5.11 R  PF 1.10 t 0.19
  HOLDOUT  n=  29 net 20.50 R  PF 1.34 t 0.55
  ALL      n=133 net 23.58 R (gross 29.00 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.08 t 0.32 avg 0.18 R/trade; win 53/133 = 40% (95% Wilson 32-48%) avg winner 5.88 R avg loser -3.60 R
  total 49,752 $ per contract; exits {"signal":132,"open":1}; avg hours held 265.00; time in market 60%; closed-trade drawdown -64.23 R; drawdown incl. open losses -68.12 R; worst open loss in one trade -12.09 R
  total vs buy and hold: 49,752 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 57,454 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 23.58 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 19.86; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 133.00, median avg 0.62 R, 5th -0.14, 95th 1.33; real avg 0.18 R -> percentile 18.40
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.10
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 79 / 25 / 29
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.03
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 18.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -136.75 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 20.50 R PF 1.34
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-L-S: long only, stop 1 R only ===
  DEV      n=  79 net 58.76 R  PF 1.94 t 1.25
  VAL      n=  25 net 18.79 R  PF 1.97 t 1.02
  HOLDOUT  n=  29 net -1.96 R  PF 0.92 t -0.16
  ALL      n=133 net 75.58 R (gross 80.63 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.72 t 1.45 avg 0.57 R/trade; win 27/133 = 20% (95% Wilson 14-28%) avg winner 6.71 R avg loser -1.00 R
  total 72,711 $ per contract; exits {"stop":102,"signal":31}; avg hours held 130.30; time in market 30%; closed-trade drawdown -19.58 R; drawdown incl. open losses -19.90 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.07 R
  total vs buy and hold: 72,711 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 24,095 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 75.58 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 19.86; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 133.00, median avg 0.04 R, 5th -0.29, 95th 0.44; real avg 0.57 R -> percentile 98.40
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.97
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 79 / 25 / 29
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.25
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 98.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -58.69 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -1.96 R PF 0.92
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-L-T1: long only, stop 1 R, target 1 R ===
  DEV      n=  79 net 6.56 R  PF 1.19 t 0.75
  VAL      n=  25 net 0.43 R  PF 1.03 t 0.08
  HOLDOUT  n=  29 net 3.19 R  PF 1.26 t 0.60
  ALL      n=133 net 10.18 R (gross 15.12 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.17 t 0.89 avg 0.08 R/trade; win 72/133 = 54% (95% Wilson 46-62%) avg winner 0.98 R avg loser -0.99 R
  total 17,945 $ per contract; exits {"target":72,"stop":58,"signal":3}; avg hours held 8.68; time in market 2%; closed-trade drawdown -8.72 R; drawdown incl. open losses -8.77 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.07 R
  total vs buy and hold: 17,945 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 7,130 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 10.18 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 19.86; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 133.00, median avg -0.01 R, 5th -0.15, 95th 0.14; real avg 0.08 R -> percentile 86.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.03
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 79 / 25 / 29
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.75
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 86.60
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 0.28 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 3.19 R PF 1.26
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-L-T2: long only, stop 1 R, target 2 R ===
  DEV      n=  79 net 13.56 R  PF 1.28 t 1.04
  VAL      n=  25 net 4.43 R  PF 1.29 t 0.59
  HOLDOUT  n=  29 net 4.17 R  PF 1.24 t 0.53
  ALL      n=133 net 22.15 R (gross 27.11 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.27 t 1.31 avg 0.17 R/trade; win 52/133 = 39% (95% Wilson 31-48%) avg winner 1.98 R avg loser -1.00 R
  total 30,880 $ per contract; exits {"target":52,"stop":78,"signal":3}; avg hours held 18.00; time in market 4%; closed-trade drawdown -8.77 R; drawdown incl. open losses -9.40 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.07 R
  total vs buy and hold: 30,880 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 14,951 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 22.15 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 19.86; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 133.00, median avg -0.00 R, 5th -0.19, 95th 0.18; real avg 0.17 R -> percentile 92.40
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.29
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 79 / 25 / 29
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.04
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 92.40
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 2.27 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 4.17 R PF 1.24
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-L-T3: long only, stop 1 R, target 3 R ===
  DEV      n=  79 net 14.22 R  PF 1.26 t 0.88
  VAL      n=  25 net 14.43 R  PF 1.94 t 1.44
  HOLDOUT  n=  29 net 7.17 R  PF 1.36 t 0.71
  ALL      n=133 net 35.81 R (gross 40.77 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.40 t 1.67 avg 0.27 R/trade; win 43/133 = 32% (95% Wilson 25-41%) avg winner 2.92 R avg loser -1.00 R
  total 40,346 $ per contract; exits {"stop":87,"signal":4,"target":42}; avg hours held 29.39; time in market 7%; closed-trade drawdown -13.61 R; drawdown incl. open losses -14.25 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.07 R
  total vs buy and hold: 40,346 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 14,951 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 35.81 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 19.86; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 133.00, median avg 0.01 R, 5th -0.20, 95th 0.23; real avg 0.27 R -> percentile 97.80
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.94
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 79 / 25 / 29
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.88
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 97.80
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 5.93 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 7.17 R PF 1.36
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-L-T123: long only, stop 1 R, a third at 1 R, 2 R and 3 R ===
  DEV      n=  79 net 11.45 R  PF 1.29 t 1.00
  VAL      n=  25 net 6.43 R  PF 1.48 t 0.89
  HOLDOUT  n=  29 net 4.84 R  PF 1.34 t 0.68
  ALL      n=133 net 22.71 R (gross 27.67 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.34 t 1.49 avg 0.17 R/trade; win 52/133 = 39% (95% Wilson 31-48%) avg winner 1.73 R avg loser -0.83 R
  total 29,724 $ per contract; exits {"target":166,"stop":223,"signal":10}; avg hours held 29.39; time in market 7%; closed-trade drawdown -9.95 R; drawdown incl. open losses -10.58 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.07 R
  total vs buy and hold: 29,724 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity n/a for the thirds (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 22.71 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 19.86; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 133.00, median avg -0.00 R, 5th -0.17, 95th 0.15; real avg 0.17 R -> percentile 96.40
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.48
  [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 79 / 25 / 29
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.00
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 96.40
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 2.84 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 4.84 R PF 1.34
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-LS-N: long and short, no stop, no target ===
  DEV      n= 158 net -44.71 R  PF 0.88 t -0.47
  VAL      n=  51 net -2.85 R  PF 0.97 t -0.06
  HOLDOUT  n=  57 net -27.44 R  PF 0.77 t -0.67
  ALL      n=266 net -75.00 R (gross -64.54 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 0.88 t -0.67 avg -0.28 R/trade; win 82/266 = 31% (95% Wilson 26-37%) avg winner 6.45 R avg loser -3.28 R
  total -87,413 $ per contract; exits {"signal":265,"open":1}; avg hours held 219.58; time in market 99%; closed-trade drawdown -152.65 R; drawdown incl. open losses -154.04 R; worst open loss in one trade -12.09 R
  total vs buy and hold: -87,413 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 184,517 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 23.58 R; shorts: n=133 net -98.58 R; trades per year 39.72; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 265.99, median avg 0.04 R, 5th -0.65, 95th 0.75; real avg -0.28 R -> percentile 22.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.97
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 158 / 51 / 57
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.47
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 22.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -316.29 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -27.44 R PF 0.77
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-LS-S: long and short, stop 1 R only ===
  DEV      n= 158 net 101.81 R  PF 1.77 t 1.26
  VAL      n=  51 net 18.87 R  PF 1.43 t 0.61
  HOLDOUT  n=  57 net -25.80 R  PF 0.48 t -1.98
  ALL      n=266 net 94.88 R (gross 104.60 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.42 t 1.08 avg 0.36 R/trade; win 40/266 = 15% (95% Wilson 11-20%) avg winner 8.00 R avg loser -1.00 R
  total 58,728 $ per contract; exits {"stop":216,"signal":50}; avg hours held 98.24; time in market 45%; closed-trade drawdown -36.41 R; drawdown incl. open losses -37.28 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.79 R
  total vs buy and hold: 58,728 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 49,300 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 75.58 R; shorts: n=133 net 19.30 R; trades per year 39.72; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 265.99, median avg -0.06 R, 5th -0.30, 95th 0.26; real avg 0.36 R -> percentile 98.60
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.43
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 158 / 51 / 57
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.26
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 98.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -123.61 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -25.80 R PF 0.48
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-LS-T1: long and short, stop 1 R, target 1 R ===
  DEV      n= 158 net 10.23 R  PF 1.14 t 0.83
  VAL      n=  51 net -0.14 R  PF 0.99 t -0.02
  HOLDOUT  n=  57 net 9.06 R  PF 1.39 t 1.22
  ALL      n=266 net 19.15 R (gross 28.59 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.16 t 1.19 avg 0.07 R/trade; win 144/266 = 54% (95% Wilson 48-60%) avg winner 0.97 R avg loser -0.99 R
  total 28,238 $ per contract; exits {"target":143,"stop":116,"signal":7}; avg hours held 8.24; time in market 4%; closed-trade drawdown -10.75 R; drawdown incl. open losses -11.55 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.79 R
  total vs buy and hold: 28,238 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 9,879 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 10.18 R; shorts: n=133 net 8.97 R; trades per year 39.72; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 265.99, median avg -0.03 R, 5th -0.15, 95th 0.06; real avg 0.07 R -> percentile 97.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.99
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 158 / 51 / 57
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.83
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 97.20
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 9.24 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 9.06 R PF 1.39
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-LS-T2: long and short, stop 1 R, target 2 R ===
  DEV      n= 158 net 5.18 R  PF 1.05 t 0.29
  VAL      n=  51 net 1.86 R  PF 1.06 t 0.18
  HOLDOUT  n=  57 net 14.25 R  PF 1.44 t 1.28
  ALL      n=266 net 21.29 R (gross 30.75 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.13 t 0.91 avg 0.08 R/trade; win 97/266 = 36% (95% Wilson 31-42%) avg winner 1.96 R avg loser -1.00 R
  total 31,321 $ per contract; exits {"target":95,"stop":162,"signal":9}; avg hours held 16.50; time in market 7%; closed-trade drawdown -19.27 R; drawdown incl. open losses -20.11 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.79 R
  total vs buy and hold: 31,321 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 17,367 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 22.15 R; shorts: n=133 net -0.86 R; trades per year 39.72; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 265.99, median avg -0.04 R, 5th -0.18, 95th 0.08; real avg 0.08 R -> percentile 94.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.06
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 158 / 51 / 57
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.29
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 94.20
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 0.89 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 14.25 R PF 1.44
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-LS-T3: long and short, stop 1 R, target 3 R ===
  DEV      n= 158 net -3.63 R  PF 0.97 t -0.17
  VAL      n=  51 net 11.86 R  PF 1.33 t 0.89
  HOLDOUT  n=  57 net 21.25 R  PF 1.58 t 1.49
  ALL      n=266 net 29.48 R (gross 38.94 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.16 t 1.02 avg 0.11 R/trade; win 76/266 = 29% (95% Wilson 23-34%) avg winner 2.89 R avg loser -1.00 R
  total 30,514 $ per contract; exits {"stop":183,"target":73,"signal":10}; avg hours held 24.27; time in market 11%; closed-trade drawdown -24.12 R; drawdown incl. open losses -25.11 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.79 R
  total vs buy and hold: 30,514 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 22,621 (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 35.81 R; shorts: n=133 net -6.32 R; trades per year 39.72; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 265.99, median avg -0.03 R, 5th -0.20, 95th 0.11; real avg 0.11 R -> percentile 94.80
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.33
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 158 / 51 / 57
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.17
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 94.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -0.45 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 21.25 R PF 1.58
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== ES-GH-LS-T123: long and short, stop 1 R, a third at 1 R, 2 R and 3 R ===
  DEV      n= 158 net 3.93 R  PF 1.05 t 0.26
  VAL      n=  51 net 4.53 R  PF 1.16 t 0.47
  HOLDOUT  n=  57 net 14.85 R  PF 1.56 t 1.49
  ALL      n=266 net 23.31 R (gross 32.76 R, cost 0.04 R per trade) PF 1.17 t 1.13 avg 0.09 R/trade; win 97/266 = 36% (95% Wilson 31-42%) avg winner 1.66 R avg loser -0.81 R
  total 30,024 $ per contract; exits {"target":311,"stop":461,"signal":26}; avg hours held 24.27; time in market 11%; closed-trade drawdown -17.12 R; drawdown incl. open losses -18.11 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.79 R
  total vs buy and hold: 30,024 $ per contract (buy and hold 185,838); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity n/a for the thirds (buy and hold 68,488)
  longs: n=133 net 22.71 R; shorts: n=133 net 0.60 R; trades per year 39.72; data-hole trades 0
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 265.99, median avg -0.03 R, 5th -0.16, 95th 0.08; real avg 0.09 R -> percentile 97.00
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.16
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 158 / 51 / 57
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.26
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 97.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 3.25 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 14.85 R PF 1.56
  -> VERDICT Buried

########## XAUUSD spot: 7067434 minute bars -> 129857 hourly bars 2004-06-11 01:00 .. 2026-10-07 17:00; 775 crosses (387 golden, 388 death); averages exist from 2004-06-23
  median R = 1.5 x ATR(14): 5.20 points; cost per trade in R (median): 0.06
  controls: 500 runs x 12 variants in 28 s

=== XAU-GH-L-N: long only, no stop, no target ===
  DEV      n= 149 net 307.84 R  PF 2.15 t 2.65
  VAL      n= 112 net 126.19 R  PF 1.58 t 1.41
  HOLDOUT  n= 126 net 212.17 R  PF 1.94 t 2.00
  ALL      n=387 net 646.20 R (gross 673.68 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.91 t 3.57 avg 1.67 R/trade; win 157/387 = 41% (95% Wilson 36-46%) avg winner 8.64 R avg loser -3.09 R
  total 2,864 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":387}; avg hours held 280.83; time in market 56%; closed-trade drawdown -53.34 R; drawdown incl. open losses -54.77 R; worst open loss in one trade -12.07 R
  total vs buy and hold: 2,864 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 1,320 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 551.22 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 646.20 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 17.36; data-hole trades 2
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 387.99, median avg 0.98 R, 5th 0.53, 95th 1.43; real avg 1.67 R -> percentile 99.40
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 541.67 R PF 1.73 (baseline 646.20 R)
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.58
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 149 / 112 / 126
  [PASS] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 2.65
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 99.40
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 238.55 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 212.17 R PF 1.94
  -> VERDICT Survivor

=== XAU-GH-L-S: long only, stop 1 R only ===
  DEV      n= 149 net 68.23 R  PF 1.51 t 1.18
  VAL      n= 112 net 1.90 R  PF 1.02 t 0.05
  HOLDOUT  n= 126 net 18.11 R  PF 1.17 t 0.44
  ALL      n=387 net 88.24 R (gross 115.72 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.26 t 1.09 avg 0.23 R/trade; win 61/387 = 16% (95% Wilson 12-20%) avg winner 7.10 R avg loser -1.06 R
  total 192 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":71,"stop":316}; avg hours held 97.54; time in market 19%; closed-trade drawdown -55.97 R; drawdown incl. open losses -56.26 R; worst open loss in one trade -3.85 R
  total vs buy and hold: 192 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 610 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 37.91 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 88.24 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 17.36; data-hole trades 2
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 387.99, median avg 0.22 R, 5th -0.03, 95th 0.57; real avg 0.23 R -> percentile 52.80
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 54.43 R PF 1.15 (baseline 88.24 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.02
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 149 / 112 / 126
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.18
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 52.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -114.06 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 18.11 R PF 1.17
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-L-T1: long only, stop 1 R, target 1 R ===
  DEV      n= 149 net -10.46 R  PF 0.87 t -0.85
  VAL      n= 112 net -5.66 R  PF 0.90 t -0.53
  HOLDOUT  n= 126 net -1.65 R  PF 0.97 t -0.15
  ALL      n=387 net -17.76 R (gross 9.72 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 0.91 t -0.91 avg -0.05 R/trade; win 198/387 = 51% (95% Wilson 46-56%) avg winner 0.92 R avg loser -1.06 R
  total -51 $ per ounce; exits {"target":193,"stop":182,"signal":12}; avg hours held 10.23; time in market 2%; closed-trade drawdown -29.99 R; drawdown incl. open losses -30.93 R; worst open loss in one trade -1.90 R
  total vs buy and hold: -51 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 205 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth -9.45 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net -17.76 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 17.36; data-hole trades 2
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 387.99, median avg -0.07 R, 5th -0.15, 95th 0.02; real avg -0.05 R -> percentile 63.40
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -21.12 R PF 0.90 (baseline -17.76 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.90
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 149 / 112 / 126
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.85
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 63.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -27.80 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -1.65 R PF 0.97
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-L-T2: long only, stop 1 R, target 2 R ===
  DEV      n= 149 net 6.68 R  PF 1.07 t 0.37
  VAL      n= 112 net -8.82 R  PF 0.89 t -0.59
  HOLDOUT  n= 126 net 8.35 R  PF 1.11 t 0.53
  ALL      n=387 net 6.21 R (gross 33.70 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.02 t 0.22 avg 0.02 R/trade; win 142/387 = 37% (95% Wilson 32-42%) avg winner 1.88 R avg loser -1.06 R
  total 243 $ per ounce; exits {"target":137,"stop":238,"signal":12}; avg hours held 15.93; time in market 3%; closed-trade drawdown -37.80 R; drawdown incl. open losses -38.74 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.36 R
  total vs buy and hold: 243 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 305 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 5.90 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 6.21 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 17.36; data-hole trades 2
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 387.99, median avg -0.04 R, 5th -0.16, 95th 0.07; real avg 0.02 R -> percentile 76.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 0.94 R PF 1.00 (baseline 6.21 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.89
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 149 / 112 / 126
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.37
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 76.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -13.70 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 8.35 R PF 1.11
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-L-T3: long only, stop 1 R, target 3 R ===
  DEV      n= 149 net 23.72 R  PF 1.21 t 1.04
  VAL      n= 112 net 4.18 R  PF 1.05 t 0.22
  HOLDOUT  n= 126 net 9.51 R  PF 1.11 t 0.49
  ALL      n=387 net 37.42 R (gross 64.90 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.13 t 1.05 avg 0.10 R/trade; win 116/387 = 30% (95% Wilson 26-35%) avg winner 2.81 R avg loser -1.06 R
  total 278 $ per ounce; exits {"target":110,"stop":264,"signal":13}; avg hours held 23.15; time in market 5%; closed-trade drawdown -23.03 R; drawdown incl. open losses -23.84 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.36 R
  total vs buy and hold: 278 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 198 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 20.49 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 37.42 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 17.36; data-hole trades 2
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 387.99, median avg 0.00 R, 5th -0.14, 95th 0.14; real avg 0.10 R -> percentile 88.80
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 29.89 R PF 1.10 (baseline 37.42 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.05
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 149 / 112 / 126
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.04
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 88.80
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 6.46 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 9.51 R PF 1.11
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-L-T123: long only, stop 1 R, a third at 1 R, 2 R and 3 R ===
  DEV      n= 149 net 6.65 R  PF 1.08 t 0.41
  VAL      n= 112 net -3.43 R  PF 0.95 t -0.25
  HOLDOUT  n= 126 net 5.41 R  PF 1.08 t 0.38
  ALL      n=387 net 8.62 R (gross 36.10 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.04 t 0.34 avg 0.02 R/trade; win 142/387 = 37% (95% Wilson 32-42%) avg winner 1.63 R avg loser -0.91 R
  total 157 $ per ounce; exits {"target":440,"stop":684,"signal":37}; avg hours held 23.15; time in market 5%; closed-trade drawdown -24.83 R; drawdown incl. open losses -25.77 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.36 R
  total vs buy and hold: 157 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity n/a for the thirds (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 5.10 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 8.62 R; shorts: n=0 net 0.00 R; trades per year 17.36; data-hole trades 2
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 387.99, median avg -0.03 R, 5th -0.14, 95th 0.07; real avg 0.02 R -> percentile 80.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 3.24 R PF 1.01 (baseline 8.62 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.95
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 149 / 112 / 126
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.41
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 80.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -11.45 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 5.41 R PF 1.08
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-LS-N: long and short, no stop, no target ===
  DEV      n= 299 net 178.94 R  PF 1.30 t 1.36
  VAL      n= 223 net 219.03 R  PF 1.48 t 1.86
  HOLDOUT  n= 253 net 152.97 R  PF 1.32 t 1.28
  ALL      n=775 net 550.94 R (gross 603.77 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.36 t 2.59 avg 0.71 R/trade; win 285/775 = 37% (95% Wilson 33-40%) avg winner 7.31 R avg loser -3.13 R
  total 2,011 $ per ounce; exits {"signal":774,"open":1}; avg hours held 251.90; time in market 100%; closed-trade drawdown -125.07 R; drawdown incl. open losses -127.41 R; worst open loss in one trade -15.79 R
  total vs buy and hold: 2,011 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 1,420 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 216.69 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 646.20 R; shorts: n=388 net -95.26 R; trades per year 34.77; data-hole trades 5
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 775.98, median avg 0.03 R, 5th -0.38, 95th 0.47; real avg 0.71 R -> percentile 99.80
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 372.46 R PF 1.23 (baseline 550.94 R)
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.48
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 299 / 223 / 253
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.36
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 99.80
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 143.28 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 152.97 R PF 1.32
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-LS-S: long and short, stop 1 R only ===
  DEV      n= 299 net -1.69 R  PF 0.99 t -0.03
  VAL      n= 223 net 5.77 R  PF 1.03 t 0.11
  HOLDOUT  n= 253 net -2.11 R  PF 0.99 t -0.04
  ALL      n=775 net 1.97 R (gross 54.80 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.00 t 0.02 avg 0.00 R/trade; win 112/775 = 14% (95% Wilson 12-17%) avg winner 6.28 R avg loser -1.06 R
  total -801 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":640,"signal":135}; avg hours held 85.64; time in market 34%; closed-trade drawdown -91.56 R; drawdown incl. open losses -91.85 R; worst open loss in one trade -3.85 R
  total vs buy and hold: -801 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 1,383 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth -26.78 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 88.24 R; shorts: n=388 net -86.27 R; trades per year 34.77; data-hole trades 4
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 775.98, median avg 0.05 R, 5th -0.12, 95th 0.28; real avg 0.00 R -> percentile 31.60
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -56.20 R PF 0.92 (baseline 1.97 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.03
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 299 / 223 / 253
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.03
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 31.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -213.72 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -2.11 R PF 0.99
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-LS-T1: long and short, stop 1 R, target 1 R ===
  DEV      n= 299 net -12.26 R  PF 0.92 t -0.70
  VAL      n= 223 net 0.41 R  PF 1.00 t 0.03
  HOLDOUT  n= 253 net -8.76 R  PF 0.93 t -0.56
  ALL      n=775 net -20.61 R (gross 32.22 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 0.95 t -0.74 avg -0.03 R/trade; win 404/775 = 52% (95% Wilson 49-56%) avg winner 0.92 R avg loser -1.06 R
  total -9 $ per ounce; exits {"target":394,"stop":357,"signal":24}; avg hours held 9.57; time in market 4%; closed-trade drawdown -41.18 R; drawdown incl. open losses -41.99 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.32 R
  total vs buy and hold: -9 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 397 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth -13.36 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net -17.76 R; shorts: n=388 net -2.84 R; trades per year 34.77; data-hole trades 4
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 775.98, median avg -0.07 R, 5th -0.13, 95th -0.01; real avg -0.03 R -> percentile 88.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -26.75 R PF 0.93 (baseline -20.61 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.00
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 299 / 223 / 253
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.70
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 88.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -30.99 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -8.76 R PF 0.93
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-LS-T2: long and short, stop 1 R, target 2 R ===
  DEV      n= 299 net -3.92 R  PF 0.98 t -0.16
  VAL      n= 223 net -21.84 R  PF 0.86 t -1.04
  HOLDOUT  n= 253 net 14.57 R  PF 1.09 t 0.65
  ALL      n=775 net -11.19 R (gross 41.63 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 0.98 t -0.28 avg -0.01 R/trade; win 278/775 = 36% (95% Wilson 33-39%) avg winner 1.86 R avg loser -1.06 R
  total 436 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":481,"target":264,"signal":30}; avg hours held 15.96; time in market 6%; closed-trade drawdown -59.58 R; drawdown incl. open losses -60.52 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.36 R
  total vs buy and hold: 436 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 461 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 0.86 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 6.21 R; shorts: n=388 net -17.41 R; trades per year 34.77; data-hole trades 5
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 775.98, median avg -0.06 R, 5th -0.14, 95th 0.02; real avg -0.01 R -> percentile 83.20
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -21.48 R PF 0.96 (baseline -11.19 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.86
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 299 / 223 / 253
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.16
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 83.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -31.41 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 14.57 R PF 1.09
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-LS-T3: long and short, stop 1 R, target 3 R ===
  DEV      n= 299 net 28.68 R  PF 1.13 t 0.90
  VAL      n= 223 net -5.84 R  PF 0.97 t -0.22
  HOLDOUT  n= 253 net -5.19 R  PF 0.97 t -0.19
  ALL      n=775 net 17.66 R (gross 70.49 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 1.03 t 0.36 avg 0.02 R/trade; win 220/775 = 28% (95% Wilson 25-32%) avg winner 2.77 R avg loser -1.06 R
  total 315 $ per ounce; exits {"stop":539,"target":205,"signal":31}; avg hours held 23.06; time in market 9%; closed-trade drawdown -50.15 R; drawdown incl. open losses -51.09 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.70 R
  total vs buy and hold: 315 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity 479 (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 14.37 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 37.42 R; shorts: n=388 net -19.76 R; trades per year 34.77; data-hole trades 5
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 775.98, median avg -0.04 R, 5th -0.14, 95th 0.05; real avg 0.02 R -> percentile 88.00
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net 3.00 R PF 1.01 (baseline 17.66 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.97
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 299 / 223 / 253
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.90
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 88.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -13.44 R
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -5.19 R PF 0.97
  -> VERDICT Buried

=== XAU-GH-LS-T123: long and short, stop 1 R, a third at 1 R, 2 R and 3 R ===
  DEV      n= 299 net 4.17 R  PF 1.02 t 0.18
  VAL      n= 223 net -9.09 R  PF 0.93 t -0.49
  HOLDOUT  n= 253 net 0.21 R  PF 1.00 t 0.01
  ALL      n=775 net -4.71 R (gross 48.11 R, cost 0.07 R per trade) PF 0.99 t -0.13 avg -0.01 R/trade; win 279/775 = 36% (95% Wilson 33-39%) avg winner 1.57 R avg loser -0.89 R
  total 248 $ per ounce; exits {"target":863,"stop":1377,"signal":85}; avg hours held 23.06; time in market 9%; closed-trade drawdown -45.63 R; drawdown incl. open losses -46.57 R; worst open loss in one trade -2.70 R
  total vs buy and hold: 248 $ per ounce (buy and hold 3,716); worst peak-to-trough of the marked equity n/a for the thirds (buy and hold 1,600); compounded growth 0.37 % (buy and hold 943.63 %)
  longs: n=387 net 8.62 R; shorts: n=388 net -13.34 R; trades per year 34.77; data-hole trades 5
  control (state shift, 500 runs): usable 500, mean trades 775.98, median avg -0.05 R, 5th -0.13, 95th 0.01; real avg -0.01 R -> percentile 89.60
  sensitivity, 3%/yr financing: net -15.08 R PF 0.97 (baseline -4.71 R)
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.93
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 299 / 223 / 253
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.18
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of random runs: percentile 89.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -24.84 R
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 0.21 R PF 1.00
  -> VERDICT Buried

OVERALL: 24 variant-market results: 0 Inconclusive, 23 Buried, 1 Survivor.