H1 Open Trap (the owner's H1_Open_Trap_Dashboard.mq4, trap signals, default settings) on XAUUSD 1-minute data (spec h1ot_spec.md). Run 2026-10-21T08:11:17.812Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R = the distance from the fill to the stop (the day's extreme); costs $0.3 an ounce a round trip. data: 7067434 one-minute bars, 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (clock corrected, minute close stamps); 5736 broker days signals: 11242 trap signals taken by the indicator's rules (5730 buy, 5512 sell); 7409 more were past the 3-a-day cap; blocked: 10834 (previous day's high/low 10824, 90-minute window 0, 2 M15 closes beyond the line 13, EMA stack alone 0); 4228 taken signals had the EMA stack against them (the indicator lets classic traps through) by year: 2004 198 | 2005 310 | 2006 333 | 2007 492 | 2008 498 | 2009 534 | 2010 510 | 2011 488 | 2012 491 | 2013 544 | 2014 521 | 2015 579 | 2016 528 | 2017 530 | 2018 560 | 2019 552 | 2020 535 | 2021 544 | 2022 538 | 2023 586 | 2024 558 | 2025 446 | 2026 367 === HOT-1R: stop -1R, target +1R; day-end exit === DEV n= 3235 net -1196.28 R avg -0.370 R PF 0.48 t -19.04 VAL n= 2959 net -868.48 R avg -0.294 R PF 0.54 t -15.57 HOLDOUT n= 2832 net -518.40 R avg -0.183 R PF 0.69 t -9.68 ALL n=9026 net -2583.16 R avg -0.286 R (gross 0.006 R, cost 0.292 R a trade); $ per ounce -2667.38; PF 0.56 t -25.87 win rate 4443/9026 = 49.2% (95% Wilson 48.2-50.3%); ended by target 4437 (49.2%), stop 4406 (48.8%), day end 183 (2.0%) R in dollars: median $1.37, mean $2.15, under $1: 33.1%, under $2: 67.9%, over $10: 2.0%; filled at the open beyond the line (gap): 249; minutes held median 23 max 998; the 10 best trades 16.50 R longs n=4558 net -1122.51 R gross 138.70 R | shorts n=4468 net -1460.65 R gross -81.77 R | trap #1 of the day n=4522 net -1501.79 R drawdown on closed trades -2586.23 R by year (n, net R): 2004 175 -141.98 | 2005 273 -264.66 | 2006 303 -100.92 | 2007 413 -239.81 | 2008 420 -59.54 | 2009 443 -142.07 | 2010 439 -122.44 | 2011 384 -78.16 | 2012 385 -46.72 | 2013 418 -67.64 | 2014 410 -93.27 | 2015 448 -155.31 | 2016 402 -100.56 | 2017 414 -135.87 | 2018 428 -180.44 | 2019 439 -135.40 | 2020 419 -66.18 | 2021 437 -59.98 | 2022 440 -88.82 | 2023 472 -114.84 | 2024 449 -111.05 | 2025 347 -45.18 | 2026 268 -32.35 by entry hour, server (n, net R): 6h 1353 -537.00 | 7h 997 -326.66 | 8h 1091 -442.06 | 9h 1024 -293.73 | 10h 832 -159.41 | 11h 608 -145.01 | 12h 486 -155.48 | 13h 400 -137.18 | 14h 454 -79.84 | 15h 485 -46.32 | 16h 420 -65.86 | 17h 307 -81.68 | 18h 202 -57.22 | 19h 119 -24.48 | 20h 97 -20.22 | 21h 72 4.28 | 22h 57 -12.82 | 23h 22 -2.47 control (entries moved to other days, same server time, same R in dollars, 500 runs, 6 s): mean trades 5728.08, median avg -0.316 R, 5-95% -0.343 .. -0.291 R; real avg -0.286 R at percentile 97.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.54 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 3235 / 2959 / 2832 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -19.04 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 97.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2599.66 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -518.40 R PF 0.69 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 73 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.287 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === HOT-2R: stop -1R, target +2R, after +1R a trailing stop $2.00 behind the best price; day-end exit === DEV n= 3168 net -1146.72 R avg -0.362 R PF 0.56 t -15.00 VAL n= 2870 net -802.87 R avg -0.280 R PF 0.63 t -11.43 HOLDOUT n= 2800 net -591.07 R avg -0.211 R PF 0.67 t -9.65 ALL n=8838 net -2540.66 R avg -0.287 R (gross 0.003 R, cost 0.290 R a trade); $ per ounce -2640.13; PF 0.62 t -21.06 win rate 3395/8838 = 38.4% (95% Wilson 37.4-39.4%); ended by trail 2357 (26.7%), stop 4305 (48.7%), day end 229 (2.6%), target 1947 (22.0%) R in dollars: median $1.39, mean $2.17, under $1: 32.4%, under $2: 67.3%, over $10: 2.1%; filled at the open beyond the line (gap): 238; minutes held median 37 max 1039; the 10 best trades 22.26 R longs n=4481 net -1133.00 R gross 98.59 R | shorts n=4357 net -1407.66 R gross -76.12 R | trap #1 of the day n=4522 net -1573.99 R drawdown on closed trades -2543.39 R by year (n, net R): 2004 173 -166.94 | 2005 269 -263.31 | 2006 299 -102.23 | 2007 401 -243.60 | 2008 416 -33.95 | 2009 436 -105.53 | 2010 424 -99.39 | 2011 375 -76.30 | 2012 375 -55.49 | 2013 411 -76.45 | 2014 398 -64.65 | 2015 430 -113.00 | 2016 395 -107.86 | 2017 400 -140.62 | 2018 416 -176.02 | 2019 420 -124.27 | 2020 416 -75.87 | 2021 430 -75.00 | 2022 436 -133.58 | 2023 464 -103.81 | 2024 441 -125.43 | 2025 345 -48.02 | 2026 268 -29.36 by entry hour, server (n, net R): 6h 1346 -567.31 | 7h 958 -304.23 | 8h 1047 -470.75 | 9h 993 -237.00 | 10h 814 -173.24 | 11h 595 -120.33 | 12h 476 -151.09 | 13h 392 -151.60 | 14h 450 -75.45 | 15h 482 -48.40 | 16h 417 -56.94 | 17h 306 -81.24 | 18h 200 -52.52 | 19h 117 -18.17 | 20h 96 -26.76 | 21h 72 6.36 | 22h 55 -8.23 | 23h 22 -3.76 control (entries moved to other days, same server time, same R in dollars, 500 runs, 7 s): mean trades 5493.81, median avg -0.293 R, 5-95% -0.324 .. -0.263 R; real avg -0.287 R at percentile 62.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.63 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 3168 / 2870 / 2800 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -15.00 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 62.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2562.92 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -591.07 R PF 0.67 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 96 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.290 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === HOT-3R: stop -1R, target +3R, after +1R a trailing stop $2.00 behind the best price; day-end exit === DEV n= 3147 net -1142.01 R avg -0.363 R PF 0.58 t -13.49 VAL n= 2834 net -829.62 R avg -0.293 R PF 0.63 t -10.66 HOLDOUT n= 2789 net -610.18 R avg -0.219 R PF 0.67 t -9.40 ALL n=8770 net -2581.81 R avg -0.294 R (gross -0.005 R, cost 0.289 R a trade); $ per ounce -2679.26; PF 0.62 t -19.54 win rate 3116/8770 = 35.5% (95% Wilson 34.5-36.5%); ended by trail 3184 (36.3%), stop 4279 (48.8%), day end 250 (2.9%), target 1057 (12.1%) R in dollars: median $1.40, mean $2.18, under $1: 32.2%, under $2: 67.1%, over $10: 2.1%; filled at the open beyond the line (gap): 237; minutes held median 41 max 1039; the 10 best trades 32.30 R longs n=4445 net -1179.02 R gross 37.49 R | shorts n=4325 net -1402.80 R gross -83.63 R | trap #1 of the day n=4522 net -1606.58 R drawdown on closed trades -2584.54 R by year (n, net R): 2004 168 -156.85 | 2005 268 -275.58 | 2006 299 -103.60 | 2007 397 -249.30 | 2008 413 -14.03 | 2009 433 -116.23 | 2010 422 -90.88 | 2011 374 -68.62 | 2012 373 -66.91 | 2013 408 -73.07 | 2014 394 -76.22 | 2015 426 -110.37 | 2016 392 -120.87 | 2017 390 -150.96 | 2018 411 -174.58 | 2019 413 -123.54 | 2020 416 -73.88 | 2021 427 -86.08 | 2022 432 -135.99 | 2023 463 -106.50 | 2024 439 -130.62 | 2025 344 -46.81 | 2026 268 -30.30 by entry hour, server (n, net R): 6h 1344 -584.74 | 7h 953 -327.46 | 8h 1037 -448.01 | 9h 979 -232.15 | 10h 801 -192.15 | 11h 587 -154.64 | 12h 471 -164.85 | 13h 388 -135.34 | 14h 448 -74.10 | 15h 481 -36.54 | 16h 415 -50.00 | 17h 304 -82.70 | 18h 200 -47.30 | 19h 117 -23.78 | 20h 96 -25.17 | 21h 72 11.96 | 22h 55 -11.09 | 23h 22 -3.76 control (entries moved to other days, same server time, same R in dollars, 500 runs, 6 s): mean trades 5400.22, median avg -0.283 R, 5-95% -0.314 .. -0.249 R; real avg -0.294 R at percentile 30.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.63 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 3147 / 2834 / 2789 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -13.49 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 30.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2614.11 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -610.18 R PF 0.67 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 104 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.298 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 384 -> 4109.91