H1 Open Trap (the owner's H1_Open_Trap_Dashboard.mq4, trap signals, default settings) on XAUUSD 1-minute data (spec h1ot_spec.md). Run 2026-10-23T06:48:57.115Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R = the distance from the fill to the stop (the day's extreme); costs $0.3 an ounce a round trip. data: 7067434 one-minute bars, 2004-06-11 01:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (clock corrected, minute close stamps); 5743 broker days signals: 11352 trap signals taken by the indicator's rules (5769 buy, 5583 sell); 7534 more were past the 3-a-day cap; blocked: 10866 (previous day's high/low 10858, 90-minute window 0, 2 M15 closes beyond the line 11, EMA stack alone 0); 4245 taken signals had the EMA stack against them (the indicator lets classic traps through) by year: 2004 199 | 2005 315 | 2006 349 | 2007 495 | 2008 516 | 2009 547 | 2010 544 | 2011 493 | 2012 491 | 2013 547 | 2014 525 | 2015 579 | 2016 533 | 2017 532 | 2018 560 | 2019 555 | 2020 535 | 2021 544 | 2022 538 | 2023 586 | 2024 558 | 2025 446 | 2026 365 === HOT-1R: stop -1R, target +1R; day-end exit === DEV n= 3301 net -1321.41 R avg -0.400 R PF 0.45 t -20.35 VAL n= 2963 net -866.14 R avg -0.292 R PF 0.54 t -15.54 HOLDOUT n= 2833 net -517.39 R avg -0.183 R PF 0.69 t -9.66 ALL n=9097 net -2704.95 R avg -0.297 R (gross 0.004 R, cost 0.301 R a trade); $ per ounce -2678.93; PF 0.55 t -26.70 win rate 4457/9097 = 49.0% (95% Wilson 48.0-50.0%); ended by target 4463 (49.1%), stop 4448 (48.9%), day end 186 (2.0%) R in dollars: median $1.34, mean $2.13, under $1: 33.9%, under $2: 68.3%, over $10: 2.1%; filled at the open beyond the line (gap): 270; minutes held median 23 max 998; the 10 best trades 15.55 R longs n=4577 net -1157.41 R gross 132.02 R | shorts n=4520 net -1547.53 R gross -95.92 R | trap #1 of the day n=4546 net -1552.16 R drawdown on closed trades -2708.02 R by year (n, net R): 2004 176 -147.28 | 2005 278 -288.64 | 2006 318 -110.58 | 2007 425 -284.34 | 2008 429 -73.67 | 2009 449 -144.79 | 2010 452 -142.36 | 2011 389 -83.05 | 2012 385 -46.72 | 2013 417 -65.05 | 2014 414 -90.79 | 2015 448 -156.10 | 2016 405 -102.79 | 2017 416 -134.88 | 2018 425 -178.94 | 2019 438 -137.59 | 2020 419 -66.18 | 2021 437 -59.98 | 2022 440 -88.82 | 2023 472 -114.84 | 2024 449 -111.05 | 2025 347 -45.18 | 2026 269 -31.34 by entry hour, server (n, net R): 6h 1347 -514.19 | 7h 991 -380.15 | 8h 1029 -372.80 | 9h 1002 -348.31 | 10h 899 -197.59 | 11h 619 -135.83 | 12h 503 -173.25 | 13h 384 -113.24 | 14h 381 -80.37 | 15h 502 -81.48 | 16h 464 -60.61 | 17h 343 -79.80 | 18h 217 -86.95 | 19h 136 -28.52 | 20h 110 -36.26 | 21h 81 2.43 | 22h 59 -9.13 | 23h 30 -8.90 control (entries moved to other days, same server time, same R in dollars, 500 runs, 7 s): mean trades 5764.48, median avg -0.327 R, 5-95% -0.353 .. -0.302 R; real avg -0.297 R at percentile 97.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.54 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 3301 / 2963 / 2833 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -20.35 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 97.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2720.49 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -517.39 R PF 0.69 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 79 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.297 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === HOT-2R: stop -1R, target +2R, after +1R a trailing stop $2.00 behind the best price; day-end exit === DEV n= 3231 net -1279.91 R avg -0.396 R PF 0.54 t -16.22 VAL n= 2872 net -817.87 R avg -0.285 R PF 0.63 t -11.65 HOLDOUT n= 2801 net -589.75 R avg -0.211 R PF 0.68 t -9.63 ALL n=8904 net -2687.54 R avg -0.302 R (gross -0.003 R, cost 0.299 R a trade); $ per ounce -2649.21; PF 0.60 t -21.98 win rate 3392/8904 = 38.1% (95% Wilson 37.1-39.1%); ended by trail 2371 (26.6%), stop 4345 (48.8%), day end 229 (2.6%), target 1959 (22.0%) R in dollars: median $1.37, mean $2.15, under $1: 33.2%, under $2: 67.7%, over $10: 2.1%; filled at the open beyond the line (gap): 259; minutes held median 37 max 998; the 10 best trades 25.96 R longs n=4501 net -1168.11 R gross 91.60 R | shorts n=4403 net -1519.43 R gross -117.46 R | trap #1 of the day n=4546 net -1641.35 R drawdown on closed trades -2690.27 R by year (n, net R): 2004 174 -170.39 | 2005 274 -299.82 | 2006 313 -111.88 | 2007 415 -288.44 | 2008 422 -44.43 | 2009 441 -115.45 | 2010 437 -117.09 | 2011 380 -76.92 | 2012 375 -55.49 | 2013 411 -77.11 | 2014 401 -63.92 | 2015 429 -115.68 | 2016 398 -115.03 | 2017 402 -137.63 | 2018 412 -174.37 | 2019 419 -134.13 | 2020 416 -75.87 | 2021 430 -75.00 | 2022 436 -133.58 | 2023 464 -103.81 | 2024 441 -125.43 | 2025 345 -48.02 | 2026 269 -28.05 by entry hour, server (n, net R): 6h 1339 -541.45 | 7h 955 -393.39 | 8h 982 -386.37 | 9h 976 -342.49 | 10h 873 -186.41 | 11h 607 -119.50 | 12h 496 -148.51 | 13h 373 -127.96 | 14h 377 -89.10 | 15h 498 -74.51 | 16h 461 -46.56 | 17h 340 -80.62 | 18h 217 -89.46 | 19h 133 -11.67 | 20h 108 -37.62 | 21h 81 2.64 | 22h 59 -5.13 | 23h 29 -9.44 control (entries moved to other days, same server time, same R in dollars, 500 runs, 7 s): mean trades 5528.64, median avg -0.303 R, 5-95% -0.338 .. -0.274 R; real avg -0.302 R at percentile 52.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.63 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 3231 / 2872 / 2801 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -16.22 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 52.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2713.50 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -589.75 R PF 0.68 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 103 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.303 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === HOT-3R: stop -1R, target +3R, after +1R a trailing stop $2.00 behind the best price; day-end exit === DEV n= 3213 net -1260.06 R avg -0.392 R PF 0.56 t -14.39 VAL n= 2837 net -832.82 R avg -0.294 R PF 0.63 t -10.69 HOLDOUT n= 2790 net -608.86 R avg -0.218 R PF 0.67 t -9.38 ALL n=8840 net -2701.74 R avg -0.306 R (gross -0.008 R, cost 0.298 R a trade); $ per ounce -2664.41; PF 0.61 t -20.14 win rate 3121/8840 = 35.3% (95% Wilson 34.3-36.3%); ended by trail 3196 (36.2%), stop 4318 (48.8%), day end 251 (2.8%), target 1075 (12.2%) R in dollars: median $1.37, mean $2.16, under $1: 32.9%, under $2: 67.5%, over $10: 2.1%; filled at the open beyond the line (gap): 257; minutes held median 41 max 998; the 10 best trades 35.30 R longs n=4470 net -1182.51 R gross 63.40 R | shorts n=4370 net -1519.23 R gross -130.16 R | trap #1 of the day n=4546 net -1665.62 R drawdown on closed trades -2704.47 R by year (n, net R): 2004 170 -157.88 | 2005 274 -312.19 | 2006 311 -98.63 | 2007 410 -292.82 | 2008 421 -32.25 | 2009 440 -123.21 | 2010 435 -106.05 | 2011 379 -70.12 | 2012 373 -66.91 | 2013 408 -73.73 | 2014 397 -73.11 | 2015 425 -113.93 | 2016 395 -126.21 | 2017 392 -145.97 | 2018 407 -172.93 | 2019 413 -126.93 | 2020 416 -73.88 | 2021 427 -86.08 | 2022 432 -135.99 | 2023 463 -106.50 | 2024 439 -130.62 | 2025 344 -46.81 | 2026 269 -28.99 by entry hour, server (n, net R): 6h 1337 -581.76 | 7h 951 -397.33 | 8h 973 -381.63 | 9h 963 -303.41 | 10h 859 -195.10 | 11h 600 -154.47 | 12h 489 -162.37 | 13h 370 -127.07 | 14h 376 -67.55 | 15h 498 -71.69 | 16h 459 -36.62 | 17h 339 -84.09 | 18h 216 -83.06 | 19h 133 -11.00 | 20h 108 -37.80 | 21h 81 4.96 | 22h 59 -2.32 | 23h 29 -9.44 control (entries moved to other days, same server time, same R in dollars, 500 runs, 7 s): mean trades 5437.01, median avg -0.293 R, 5-95% -0.331 .. -0.259 R; real avg -0.306 R at percentile 25.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.63 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 3213 / 2837 / 2790 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -14.39 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 25.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -2737.04 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -608.86 R PF 0.67 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 109 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.307 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 384 -> 4109.91