Heikin Ashi on Bitcoin, 4-hour bars (spec ha_spec.md). Run 2026-10-21T18:27:35.595Z; 500 control runs per variant. 0.05% a fill; signals on the bar close, executed at the next bar's open.
data: 4789278 minutes 2017-08-17 04:00 .. 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC; 19968 used 4-hour bars, 19702 from 1 Oct 2017; colour changes 4990 (one every 3.95 bars); no-wick bars 8140 (41.3%)
buy and hold from 1 Oct 2017 (open 4378.49) to the last close (83623.6): x19.10

=== HA-FLIP: always in the market, reverse on every colour change ===
  DEV      n=2117 net +70.5%  avg +0.033%  PF 1.03 t 0.45
  VAL      n=1381 net -82.3%  avg -0.060%  PF 0.92 t -0.88
  HOLDOUT  n=1492 net -78.2%  avg -0.052%  PF 0.92 t -1.01
  ALL      n=4990 net -90.0% (sum of trades) avg -0.018% a trade (gross +0.082%); PF 0.98 t -0.46; compound x0.064 vs buy and hold x19.10; drawdown on closed trades (sum) -208.4%
  winners 31.0% (95% 29.7-32.3%); days held mean 0.66 median 0.50; time in the market 100.0%; without the 10 best -317.4%; with 10%/yr funding avg -0.036%
  longs n=2495 net +199.3% | shorts n=2495 net -289.4%
  by year (n, net): 2017 130 +58.5% | 2018 557 -47.5% | 2019 594 +7.3% | 2020 560 +63.2% | 2021 562 -49.5% | 2022 537 -58.9% | 2023 558 +15.0% | 2024 530 +6.0% | 2025 557 -73.5% | 2026 405 -10.7%
  control (holdings shifted by whole days, 500 runs, 5 s): mean trades 4990.76, median avg -0.100%, 5-95% -0.163% .. -0.032%; real avg -0.018% at percentile 98.40
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.92
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2117 / 1381 / 1492
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 0.45
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 98.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -317.4%
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -78.2% PF 0.92
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)
  rule 3: 30 trades open over a data gap of 60+ minutes; without them avg -0.023%, gates 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== HA-NOWICK: enter on a no-wick candle, exit on the first opposite colour ===
  DEV      n=1168 net +315.8%  avg +0.270%  PF 1.29 t 2.53
  VAL      n= 799 net -22.5%  avg -0.028%  PF 0.97 t -0.29
  HOLDOUT  n= 906 net -2.8%  avg -0.003%  PF 1.00 t -0.04
  ALL      n=2873 net +290.6% (sum of trades) avg +0.101% a trade (gross +0.201%); PF 1.12 t 1.82; compound x5.478 vs buy and hold x19.10; drawdown on closed trades (sum) -93.5%
  winners 32.4% (95% 30.7-34.1%); days held mean 0.73 median 0.67; time in the market 64.2%; without the 10 best +77.7%; with 10%/yr funding avg +0.081%
  longs n=1471 net +350.0% | shorts n=1402 net -59.4%
  by year (n, net): 2017 68 +98.9% | 2018 311 +61.1% | 2019 308 +56.7% | 2020 308 +60.5% | 2021 337 +13.2% | 2022 323 -41.7% | 2023 312 +44.7% | 2024 325 +11.5% | 2025 348 -47.2% | 2026 233 +32.9%
  control (holdings shifted by whole days, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 2873.52, median avg -0.096%, 5-95% -0.176% .. -0.007%; real avg +0.101% at percentile 100.00
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.97
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1168 / 799 / 906
  [PASS] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 2.53
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: +77.7%
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -2.8% PF 1.00
  VERDICT Buried (4/6 gates)
  rule 3: 18 trades open over a data gap of 60+ minutes; without them avg +0.089%, gates 4/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== HA-NOWICK-200: HA-NOWICK, longs only above the 200-bar average, shorts only below ===
  DEV      n= 705 net +315.9%  avg +0.448%  PF 1.47 t 2.93
  VAL      n= 448 net +51.1%  avg +0.114%  PF 1.14 t 0.86
  HOLDOUT  n= 517 net +38.1%  avg +0.074%  PF 1.11 t 0.74
  ALL      n=1670 net +405.1% (sum of trades) avg +0.243% a trade (gross +0.343%); PF 1.30 t 3.03; compound x24.765 vs buy and hold x19.10; drawdown on closed trades (sum) -38.6%
  winners 34.1% (95% 31.8-36.4%); days held mean 0.77 median 0.67; time in the market 39.3%; without the 10 best +208.0%; with 10%/yr funding avg +0.221%
  longs n=880 net +360.6% | shorts n=790 net +44.4%
  by year (n, net): 2017 39 +105.3% | 2018 178 +44.3% | 2019 180 +74.3% | 2020 195 +72.0% | 2021 203 +31.7% | 2022 178 +3.3% | 2023 180 +36.1% | 2024 174 +45.5% | 2025 206 -32.2% | 2026 137 +24.9%
  control (holdings shifted by whole days, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 1670.34, median avg -0.092%, 5-95% -0.216% .. +0.028%; real avg +0.243% at percentile 100.00
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.14
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 705 / 448 / 517
  [PASS] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 2.93
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 100.00
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: +208.0%
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net +38.1% PF 1.11
  VERDICT Buried (5/6 gates)
  rule 3: 12 trades open over a data gap of 60+ minutes; without them avg +0.226%, gates 5/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)