ICT Silver Bullet on ES 5-minute bars (spec sb_spec.md, frozen 2026-10-26). Run 2026-10-26T15:07:27.139Z; 500 control runs per variant. One contract, $30.76 a round trip; buy (sell) limit at the edge of the fair value gap, stop one tick beyond its first candle; exit at the target or the session close.
data: 2378027 bars 2020-01-01 18:01 .. 2026-09-25 16:59 New York; 1737 usable days; PM windows that exist: 1679
known holes in the ES file: 15

AM window: 1737 windows; a long-side sweep in 1465, a short-side sweep in 1496; gaps after a sweep (c1 at or after the extreme, c3 in the window): rejected for c2 against 1, no liquidity level beyond the entry 351, liquidity less than 10 points away 1069; valid gaps 1585, in 910 windows (52.4%)

PM window: 1679 windows; a long-side sweep in 1283, a short-side sweep in 1379; gaps after a sweep (c1 at or after the extreme, c3 in the window): rejected for c2 against 1, no liquidity level beyond the entry 105, liquidity less than 10 points away 820; valid gaps 1264, in 769 windows (45.8%)

=== SB-AM-2R: AM window, target 2R ===
  DEV      n= 399 net +$15,714  avg +$39  PF 1.12 t 0.92
  VAL      n= 104 net -$6,662  avg -$64  PF 0.83 t -0.81
  HOLDOUT  n= 170 net -$11,079  avg -$65  PF 0.86 t -0.69
  ALL      n=673 (38.7% of windows) net -$2,026 avg -$3 a trade (gross +$28); in R: net -0.002, gross 0.073, cost 0.075; PF 0.99 t -0.08; drawdown on closed trades -$38,259
  winners 37.0% (95% 33.4-40.7%); ended by stop 418 (62.1%), target 226 (33.6%), session close 29 (4.3%); R median 9.50 points (+$475); target median 2.00 R; minutes held median 33; without the 10 best -$31,244
  orders: filled 673, replaced by a newer gap 228, target before the fill 132, expired at the window end 186
  costs: before +$28 | $30.76 -$3 | x1.5 -$18 | x2.5 -$49 a trade
  longs n=337 net +$1,709 avg +$5 | shorts n=336 net -$3,735 avg -$11
  by liquidity level (n, net): overnight 416 -$8,396 | previous day 159 +$6,984 | session 98 -$614
  by year (n, net): 2020 101 +$12,281 | 2021 87 -$2,164 | 2022 121 +$8,641 | 2023 90 -$3,043 | 2024 76 -$900 | 2025 110 -$27,046 | 2026 88 +$10,206
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 673.00, median avg -$28, 5-95% -$73 .. +$27; real avg -$3 at percentile 81.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.83
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 399 / 104 / 170
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.92
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 81.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$31,244
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$11,079 PF 0.86
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 6 trades touch a known hole (previous session to exit); without them avg -$1, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== SB-AM-LIQ: AM window, target the nearest liquidity level ===
  DEV      n= 397 net +$19,938  avg +$50  PF 1.16 t 1.15
  VAL      n= 104 net -$2,537  avg -$24  PF 0.93 t -0.28
  HOLDOUT  n= 168 net -$8,093  avg -$48  PF 0.89 t -0.51
  ALL      n=669 (38.5% of windows) net +$9,309 avg +$14 a trade (gross +$45); in R: net 0.022, gross 0.098, cost 0.076; PF 1.04 t 0.37; drawdown on closed trades -$30,554
  winners 35.7% (95% 32.2-39.4%); ended by stop 425 (63.5%), target 183 (27.4%), session close 61 (9.1%); R median 9.50 points (+$475); target median 2.52 R; minutes held median 38; without the 10 best -$26,283
  orders: filled 669, replaced by a newer gap 263, expired at the window end 185, target before the fill 110
  costs: before +$45 | $30.76 +$14 | x1.5 -$1 | x2.5 -$32 a trade
  longs n=338 net +$6,128 avg +$18 | shorts n=331 net +$3,181 avg +$10
  by liquidity level (n, net): overnight 419 -$14,313 | previous day 162 +$14,554 | session 88 +$9,068
  by year (n, net): 2020 99 +$3,942 | 2021 87 +$1,399 | 2022 119 +$21,602 | 2023 92 -$7,005 | 2024 76 +$1,012 | 2025 109 -$14,178 | 2026 87 +$2,536
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 669.00, median avg -$27, 5-95% -$71 .. +$23; real avg +$14 at percentile 92.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.93
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 397 / 104 / 168
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.15
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 92.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$26,283
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$8,093 PF 0.89
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 6 trades touch a known hole (previous session to exit); without them avg +$16, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== SB-PM-2R: PM window, target 2R ===
  DEV      n= 328 net -$8,427  avg -$26  PF 0.90 t -0.76
  VAL      n= 106 net +$6,627  avg +$63  PF 1.31 t 1.17
  HOLDOUT  n= 135 net -$7,290  avg -$54  PF 0.79 t -1.12
  ALL      n=569 (33.9% of windows) net -$9,090 avg -$16 a trade (gross +$15); in R: net -0.068, gross 0.046, cost 0.115; PF 0.93 t -0.65; drawdown on closed trades -$16,348
  winners 37.4% (95% 33.6-41.5%); ended by target 163 (28.6%), stop 334 (58.7%), session close 72 (12.7%); R median 6.25 points (+$313); target median 2.00 R; minutes held median 30; without the 10 best -$27,407
  orders: filled 569, expired at the window end 156, replaced by a newer gap 192, target before the fill 106
  costs: before +$15 | $30.76 -$16 | x1.5 -$31 | x2.5 -$62 a trade
  longs n=265 net +$2,074 avg +$8 | shorts n=304 net -$11,164 avg -$37
  by liquidity level (n, net): overnight 106 -$10,698 | previous day 105 -$17 | session 358 +$1,625
  by year (n, net): 2020 87 +$1,549 | 2021 75 -$2,357 | 2022 93 -$6,761 | 2023 73 -$858 | 2024 78 -$249 | 2025 87 +$1,961 | 2026 76 -$2,375
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 550.03, median avg -$30, 5-95% -$64 .. -$0; real avg -$16 at percentile 79.20
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.31
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 328 / 106 / 135
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.76
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 79.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$27,407
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$7,290 PF 0.79
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)
  rule 3: 5 trades touch a known hole (previous session to exit); without them avg -$15, gates 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== SB-PM-LIQ: PM window, target the nearest liquidity level ===
  DEV      n= 329 net +$455  avg +$1  PF 1.01 t 0.04
  VAL      n= 107 net +$2,096  avg +$20  PF 1.09 t 0.35
  HOLDOUT  n= 133 net -$1,829  avg -$14  PF 0.95 t -0.25
  ALL      n=569 (33.9% of windows) net +$723 avg +$1 a trade (gross +$32); in R: net 0.057, gross 0.173, cost 0.116; PF 1.01 t 0.05; drawdown on closed trades -$13,083
  winners 33.6% (95% 29.8-37.5%); ended by target 82 (14.4%), stop 351 (61.7%), session close 136 (23.9%); R median 6.00 points (+$300); target median 4.05 R; minutes held median 43; without the 10 best -$19,545
  orders: filled 569, expired at the window end 162, replaced by a newer gap 240, target before the fill 49
  costs: before +$32 | $30.76 +$1 | x1.5 -$14 | x2.5 -$45 a trade
  longs n=263 net +$8,298 avg +$32 | shorts n=306 net -$7,575 avg -$25
  by liquidity level (n, net): overnight 101 -$6,707 | previous day 106 +$4,339 | session 362 +$3,090
  by year (n, net): 2020 90 +$6,669 | 2021 75 -$2,582 | 2022 90 -$4,618 | 2023 74 +$986 | 2024 78 -$2,387 | 2025 86 +$6,555 | 2026 76 -$3,900
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 550.00, median avg -$33, 5-95% -$67 .. +$4; real avg +$1 at percentile 94.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.09
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 329 / 107 / 133
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.04
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 94.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$19,545
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$1,829 PF 0.95
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 6 trades touch a known hole (previous session to exit); without them avg +$1, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)