Initial Balance breakout on ES (spec ibbes_spec.md, the NQ rules unchanged). Run 2026-10-21T17:50:14.571Z; 500 control runs per variant. One contract, $30.76 a round trip; IB 09:30-10:30, entries 10:30-13:30, exit at the session close.
data: 2378027 bars 2020-01-01 18:01 .. 2026-09-25 16:59 New York; 1737 session days, 1733 with a usable IB
IB size in points, median by year: 2020 19.50 (n 255) | 2021 18.75 (n 258) | 2022 35.50 (n 258) | 2023 20.25 (n 257) | 2024 20.75 (n 258) | 2025 30.00 (n 257) | 2026 35.50 (n 190)
first side broken by 13:30: high 874 (50.4%), low 747 (43.1%), neither 112 (6.5%); one bar through both levels 0
agreement with NQ (descriptive): ES trades on 1621 days, NQ also traded on 1522 of them, same direction on 1334 (87.6%)
IB size terciles (descriptive): small < 19.00 <= medium < 31.75 <= large

=== IB-X1: stop beyond the other side, target 1x IB extension ===
  DEV      n= 954 net +$7,542  avg +$8  PF 1.02 t 0.21
  VAL      n= 304 net +$1,149  avg +$4  PF 1.01 t 0.06
  HOLDOUT  n= 363 net -$11,103  avg -$31  PF 0.95 t -0.41
  ALL      n=1621 (93.5% of days) net -$2,412 avg -$1 a trade (gross +$29); in R: net -0.011, gross 0.019; PF 1.00 t -0.05; drawdown on closed trades -$49,587
  winners 51.3% (95% 48.8-53.7%); ended by stop 469 (28.9%), session close 660 (40.7%), target 492 (30.4%); R median 24.75 points (+$1,238); minutes held median 219; without the 10 best -$38,904
  longs n=874 net +$13,503 | shorts n=747 net -$15,915
  by year (n, net): 2020 237 -$12,740 | 2021 231 -$15,718 | 2022 238 +$43,117 | 2023 248 -$7,116 | 2024 249 -$5,497 | 2025 242 +$1,056 | 2026 176 -$5,514
  by IB size (descriptive): small n=550 net -$9,656 avg -$18 | medium n=544 net -$14,696 avg -$27 | large n=527 net +$21,939 avg +$42
  control (entries moved to other days, same minute, same distances, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 1620.08, median avg -$30, 5-95% -$72 .. +$16; real avg -$1 at percentile 85.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.01
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 954 / 304 / 363
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.21
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 85.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$38,904
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$11,103 PF 0.95
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 1 trades on days touching a known hole; without them avg -$2, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== IB-MID: stop at the IB midpoint, target 1x IB extension ===
  DEV      n= 954 net +$14,886  avg +$16  PF 1.04 t 0.52
  VAL      n= 304 net +$3,574  avg +$12  PF 1.03 t 0.22
  HOLDOUT  n= 363 net -$466  avg -$1  PF 1.00 t -0.02
  ALL      n=1621 (93.5% of days) net +$17,994 avg +$11 a trade (gross +$42); in R: net -0.005, gross 0.054; PF 1.03 t 0.45; drawdown on closed trades -$36,619
  winners 40.7% (95% 38.3-43.1%); ended by stop 859 (53.0%), session close 357 (22.0%), target 405 (25.0%); R median 12.38 points (+$619); minutes held median 117; without the 10 best -$16,711
  longs n=874 net +$39,922 | shorts n=747 net -$21,928
  by year (n, net): 2020 237 -$3,865 | 2021 231 -$13,437 | 2022 238 +$45,854 | 2023 248 -$13,666 | 2024 249 +$5,685 | 2025 242 +$244 | 2026 176 -$2,820
  by IB size (descriptive): small n=550 net -$10,662 avg -$19 | medium n=544 net +$14,998 avg +$28 | large n=527 net +$13,658 avg +$26
  control (entries moved to other days, same minute, same distances, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 1620.08, median avg -$25, 5-95% -$58 .. +$17; real avg +$11 at percentile 93.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.03
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 954 / 304 / 363
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.52
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 93.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$16,711
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$466 PF 1.00
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 1 trades on days touching a known hole; without them avg +$11, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== IB-CLOSE: stop beyond the other side, no target, out at the close ===
  DEV      n= 954 net +$28,630  avg +$30  PF 1.06 t 0.70
  VAL      n= 304 net +$2,386  avg +$8  PF 1.02 t 0.11
  HOLDOUT  n= 363 net -$24,641  avg -$68  PF 0.89 t -0.79
  ALL      n=1621 (93.5% of days) net +$6,376 avg +$4 a trade (gross +$35); in R: net -0.001, gross 0.029; PF 1.01 t 0.11; drawdown on closed trades -$46,821
  winners 47.5% (95% 45.1-49.9%); ended by stop 491 (30.3%), session close 1130 (69.7%); R median 24.75 points (+$1,238); minutes held median 292; without the 10 best -$55,954
  longs n=874 net +$19,341 | shorts n=747 net -$12,965
  by year (n, net): 2020 237 -$11,803 | 2021 231 -$18,806 | 2022 238 +$56,529 | 2023 248 +$2,709 | 2024 249 -$2,847 | 2025 242 -$3,581 | 2026 176 -$15,826
  by IB size (descriptive): small n=550 net -$9,081 avg -$17 | medium n=544 net -$6,421 avg -$12 | large n=527 net +$21,877 avg +$42
  control (entries moved to other days, same minute, same distances, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 1620.08, median avg -$19, 5-95% -$69 .. +$36; real avg +$4 at percentile 77.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.02
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 954 / 304 / 363
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.70
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 77.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$55,954
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$24,641 PF 0.89
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 1 trades on days touching a known hole; without them avg +$5, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)