Initial Balance breakout on NQ (spec ibb_spec.md). Run 2026-10-21T17:32:49.473Z; 500 control runs per variant. One contract, $15.76 a round trip; IB 09:30-10:30, entries 10:30-13:30, exit at the session close.
data: 2373779 bars 2020-01-01 18:01 .. 2026-09-25 17:00 New York; 1735 session days, 1730 with a usable IB
IB size in points, median by year: 2020 92.25 (n 255) | 2021 105.75 (n 258) | 2022 160.00 (n 258) | 2023 107.50 (n 257) | 2024 126.75 (n 258) | 2025 163.50 (n 256) | 2026 216.50 (n 188)
first side broken by 13:30: high 859 (49.7%), low 730 (42.2%), neither 141 (8.2%); one bar through both levels 0
IB size terciles (descriptive): small < 104.50 <= medium < 161.75 <= large

=== IB-X1: stop beyond the other side, target 1x IB extension ===
  DEV      n= 948 net +$100,145  avg +$106  PF 1.14 t 1.66
  VAL      n= 293 net +$29,352  avg +$100  PF 1.12 t 0.79
  HOLDOUT  n= 348 net +$5,311  avg +$15  PF 1.01 t 0.10
  ALL      n=1589 (91.8% of days) net +$134,807 avg +$85 a trade (gross +$101); in R: net 0.037, gross 0.044; PF 1.10 t 1.52; drawdown on closed trades -$52,611
  winners 53.6% (95% 51.1-56.0%); ended by session close 872 (54.9%), target 367 (23.1%), stop 350 (22.0%); R median 127.50 points (+$2,550); minutes held median 257; without the 10 best +$59,200
  longs n=859 net +$108,397 | shorts n=730 net +$26,410
  by year (n, net): 2020 240 -$11,942 | 2021 235 +$19,061 | 2022 234 +$65,332 | 2023 239 +$27,693 | 2024 237 +$17,905 | 2025 234 -$498 | 2026 170 +$17,256
  by IB size (descriptive): small n=545 net +$56,166 avg +$103 | medium n=533 net +$50,115 avg +$94 | large n=511 net +$28,527 avg +$56
  control (entries moved to other days, same minute, same distances, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 1587.64, median avg -$12, 5-95% -$93 .. +$77; real avg +$85 at percentile 97.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.12
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 948 / 293 / 348
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.66
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 97.20
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: +$59,200
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net +$5,311 PF 1.01
  VERDICT Buried (4/6 gates)
  rule 3: 2 trades on days touching a known hole; without them avg +$80, gates 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== IB-MID: stop at the IB midpoint, target 1x IB extension ===
  DEV      n= 948 net +$95,000  avg +$100  PF 1.16 t 1.92
  VAL      n= 293 net +$2,580  avg +$9  PF 1.01 t 0.08
  HOLDOUT  n= 348 net -$41,857  avg -$120  PF 0.89 t -0.91
  ALL      n=1589 (91.8% of days) net +$55,722 avg +$35 a trade (gross +$51); in R: net 0.030, gross 0.045; PF 1.05 t 0.74; drawdown on closed trades -$67,626
  winners 42.7% (95% 40.3-45.1%); ended by session close 491 (30.9%), target 312 (19.6%), stop 786 (49.5%); R median 63.75 points (+$1,275); minutes held median 141; without the 10 best -$19,225
  longs n=859 net +$58,365 | shorts n=730 net -$2,642
  by year (n, net): 2020 240 +$7,070 | 2021 235 +$8,686 | 2022 234 +$77,402 | 2023 239 +$1,841 | 2024 237 +$8,975 | 2025 234 -$12,175 | 2026 170 -$36,077
  by IB size (descriptive): small n=545 net +$38,203 avg +$70 | medium n=533 net +$26,920 avg +$51 | large n=511 net -$9,401 avg -$18
  control (entries moved to other days, same minute, same distances, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 1587.64, median avg +$4, 5-95% -$66 .. +$66; real avg +$35 at percentile 81.80
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.01
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 948 / 293 / 348
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.92
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 81.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$19,225
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$41,857 PF 0.89
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 2 trades on days touching a known hole; without them avg +$30, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== IB-CLOSE: stop beyond the other side, no target, out at the close ===
  DEV      n= 948 net +$112,180  avg +$118  PF 1.15 t 1.70
  VAL      n= 293 net +$32,327  avg +$110  PF 1.13 t 0.78
  HOLDOUT  n= 348 net +$22,401  avg +$64  PF 1.06 t 0.33
  ALL      n=1589 (91.8% of days) net +$166,907 avg +$105 a trade (gross +$121); in R: net 0.038, gross 0.046; PF 1.12 t 1.62; drawdown on closed trades -$56,310
  winners 51.0% (95% 48.6-53.5%); ended by session close 1222 (76.9%), stop 367 (23.1%); R median 127.50 points (+$2,550); minutes held median 299; without the 10 best +$32,350
  longs n=859 net +$134,192 | shorts n=730 net +$32,715
  by year (n, net): 2020 240 -$25,652 | 2021 235 +$16,076 | 2022 234 +$81,832 | 2023 239 +$39,923 | 2024 237 +$32,365 | 2025 234 +$23,142 | 2026 170 -$779
  by IB size (descriptive): small n=545 net +$66,621 avg +$122 | medium n=533 net +$42,570 avg +$80 | large n=511 net +$57,717 avg +$113
  control (entries moved to other days, same minute, same distances, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 1587.64, median avg +$4, 5-95% -$97 .. +$105; real avg +$105 at percentile 95.40
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.13
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 948 / 293 / 348
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 1.70
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 95.40
  [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: +$32,350
  [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net +$22,401 PF 1.06
  VERDICT Buried (4/6 gates)
  rule 3: 2 trades on days touching a known hole; without them avg +$100, gates 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)