Inside Bar Breakout on EURUSD, daily bars (spec ib_spec.md): stop orders 1 pip beyond the mother bar for the next day only, stop at the other side, out after 20 days at the latest. Run 2026-10-21T12:11:29.680Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R (fill to stop) after 1.5 pips a round trip. data: 8326700 minutes 2004-01-01 00:03 .. 2026-09-28 15:46 New York; clock check: no week shifted (ib_clock_result.json); 5902 daily bars, 795 inside bars (13.5%) inside bars by year: 2004 35 | 2005 32 | 2006 27 | 2007 33 | 2008 41 | 2009 43 | 2010 24 | 2011 40 | 2012 29 | 2013 45 | 2014 35 | 2015 44 | 2016 42 | 2017 29 | 2018 29 | 2019 37 | 2020 28 | 2021 32 | 2022 37 | 2023 31 | 2024 32 | 2025 40 | 2026 30 === IB-1R: target 1R, out after 20 days at the latest === DEV n= 171 net -17.61 R avg -0.103 R PF 0.81 t -1.35 VAL n= 123 net -3.54 R avg -0.029 R PF 0.94 t -0.32 HOLDOUT n= 107 net 1.47 R avg 0.014 R PF 1.03 t 0.14 ALL n=401 net -19.68 R avg -0.049 R (gross -0.034 R, cost 0.015 R a trade); pips net -1816.80 (gross -1215.30); PF 0.91 t -0.99; at 1.0 pip -0.044 R, at 2.5 pips -0.059 R; with the 0.5-pip swap stress -0.071 R a trade winners 194/401 = 48.4% (95% Wilson 43.5-53.3%); ended by target 190 (47.4%), stop 204 (50.9%), 20 days 7 (1.7%); R median 113.00 pips; days held median 2; without the 10 best -29.77 R longs n=218 net -7.06 R gross -3.86 R | shorts n=183 net -12.62 R gross -9.86 R by year (n, net R, net pips): 2004 16 -2.17 -769.00 | 2005 16 3.80 684.00 | 2006 11 -3.16 -711.50 | 2007 19 -5.14 -504.50 | 2008 23 -5.79 -464.50 | 2009 27 -5.17 -914.50 | 2010 17 -3.16 -826.40 | 2011 25 6.77 1483.90 | 2012 17 -3.58 -202.60 | 2013 25 2.62 401.10 | 2014 16 -0.27 37.40 | 2015 14 3.37 369.30 | 2016 20 -2.32 -271.00 | 2017 13 -1.21 -21.60 | 2018 18 -8.31 -799.60 | 2019 17 2.58 257.40 | 2020 16 3.71 361.20 | 2021 16 -3.55 -141.40 | 2022 17 -5.23 -481.30 | 2023 18 3.23 281.40 | 2024 13 0.67 -72.40 | 2025 15 2.74 390.40 | 2026 12 -0.09 97.40 control (entries moved to other days, same time of day, same R in pips, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 248.40, median avg -0.011 R, 5-95% -0.106 .. 0.092 R; real avg -0.049 R at percentile 26.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.94 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 171 / 123 / 107 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -1.35 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 26.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -29.77 R [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 1.47 R PF 1.03 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 35 trades are open across a suspect gap; without them avg -0.056 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IB-2R: target 2R, out after 20 days at the latest === DEV n= 142 net -10.25 R avg -0.072 R PF 0.89 t -0.64 VAL n= 96 net -5.26 R avg -0.055 R PF 0.92 t -0.40 HOLDOUT n= 91 net -4.29 R avg -0.047 R PF 0.93 t -0.34 ALL n=329 net -19.80 R avg -0.060 R (gross -0.045 R, cost 0.015 R a trade); pips net -2445.20 (gross -1951.70); PF 0.91 t -0.81; at 1.0 pip -0.055 R, at 2.5 pips -0.070 R; with the 0.5-pip swap stress -0.100 R a trade winners 114/329 = 34.7% (95% Wilson 29.7-39.9%); ended by target 91 (27.7%), stop 210 (63.8%), 20 days 28 (8.5%); R median 112.60 pips; days held median 3; without the 10 best -39.73 R longs n=179 net -16.15 R gross -13.52 R | shorts n=150 net -3.65 R gross -1.36 R by year (n, net R, net pips): 2004 13 -1.73 -468.50 | 2005 14 7.12 1035.00 | 2006 10 1.85 -265.00 | 2007 16 -1.17 -2.00 | 2008 22 -7.23 -724.00 | 2009 20 -5.92 -993.70 | 2010 16 1.85 -102.50 | 2011 16 1.20 157.10 | 2012 15 -6.22 -616.50 | 2013 16 -2.97 -385.20 | 2014 12 4.92 517.40 | 2015 14 5.04 587.20 | 2016 16 -1.27 -200.00 | 2017 11 -4.61 -468.90 | 2018 14 -6.89 -765.60 | 2019 13 0.53 10.20 | 2020 13 4.79 476.10 | 2021 14 -6.45 -405.40 | 2022 14 -8.88 -833.60 | 2023 16 4.13 535.60 | 2024 11 1.99 85.50 | 2025 13 3.08 366.60 | 2026 10 -2.96 15.00 control (entries moved to other days, same time of day, same R in pips, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 199.11, median avg -0.012 R, 5-95% -0.151 .. 0.157 R; real avg -0.060 R at percentile 29.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.92 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 142 / 96 / 91 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -0.64 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 29.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -39.73 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -4.29 R PF 0.93 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 44 trades are open across a suspect gap; without them avg -0.126 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IB-2R-T: target 2R, with the 50-day trend filter, out after 20 days at the latest === DEV n= 104 net 3.84 R avg 0.037 R PF 1.06 t 0.27 VAL n= 67 net -2.88 R avg -0.043 R PF 0.94 t -0.26 HOLDOUT n= 54 net 1.41 R avg 0.026 R PF 1.04 t 0.14 ALL n=225 net 2.37 R avg 0.011 R (gross 0.025 R, cost 0.015 R a trade); pips net 442.60 (gross 780.10); PF 1.02 t 0.11; at 1.0 pip 0.015 R, at 2.5 pips 0.001 R; with the 0.5-pip swap stress -0.030 R a trade winners 82/225 = 36.4% (95% Wilson 30.4-42.9%); ended by target 67 (29.8%), stop 140 (62.2%), 20 days 18 (8.0%); R median 113.50 pips; days held median 4; without the 10 best -17.56 R longs n=128 net 3.22 R gross 5.08 R | shorts n=97 net -0.86 R gross 0.62 R by year (n, net R, net pips): 2004 8 -2.10 -324.00 | 2005 10 -0.82 72.00 | 2006 8 0.88 -268.00 | 2007 11 1.27 59.50 | 2008 16 -1.16 -533.00 | 2009 16 -1.88 -358.80 | 2010 10 8.75 1195.20 | 2011 12 1.80 223.60 | 2012 13 -2.89 -335.60 | 2013 10 4.85 513.80 | 2014 10 0.97 146.80 | 2015 10 1.16 -21.60 | 2016 12 -3.75 -360.30 | 2017 7 -1.11 -7.70 | 2018 8 -5.12 -510.20 | 2019 10 0.12 118.60 | 2020 8 5.18 556.90 | 2021 8 -5.19 -303.70 | 2022 10 -1.83 -84.80 | 2023 10 2.42 346.20 | 2024 5 -0.00 6.00 | 2025 7 4.25 510.50 | 2026 6 -3.43 -198.80 control (entries moved to other days, same time of day, same R in pips, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 141.50, median avg -0.010 R, 5-95% -0.197 .. 0.179 R; real avg 0.011 R at percentile 57.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.94 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 104 / 67 / 54 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 0.27 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 57.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -17.56 R [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 1.41 R PF 1.04 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 26 trades are open across a suspect gap; without them avg -0.050 R, gates passed 0/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)