IBS reversal on NQ (spec ibs_spec.md). Run 2026-11-03T10:59:47.160Z; 500 control runs per variant. One contract, $15.76 a round trip (+ the same per roll); signal at the regular-session close, entry at the next 1-minute open, exit at the next session's close (next 1-minute open). data: 2373779 bars 2020-01-01 18:01 .. 2026-09-25 17:00 New York; 1692 sessions, 1687 usable === IBS-L: long when IBS < 0.20, out at the next close === DEV n= 210 net +$136,002 avg +$648 PF 1.50 t 2.24 win 56.7% VAL n= 59 net +$9,515 avg +$161 PF 1.09 t 0.25 win 57.6% HOLDOUT n= 48 net +$87,703 avg +$1,827 PF 1.87 t 1.36 win 60.4% ALL n=317 (18.8% of usable sessions) net +$233,220 avg +$736 a trade (gross +$752; gross 37.59 pts); PF 1.49 t 2.43; drawdown on closed trades -$40,941, approx. including open losses -$53,045 winners 57.4% (95% 51.9-62.7%); worst open loss -$23,180 (2025-04-03 long), 5th pct of open losses -$9,980; held through a roll 6 without the 10 best +$70,233, without the 20 best -$18,895; without 2020: n=273 net +$139,729 avg +$512 PF 1.31 t 1.51 10 best trades: 2025-04-08 L +$40,359, 2026-06-10 L +$18,663, 2026-07-29 L +$17,819, 2022-11-09 L +$15,929, 2026-06-17 L +$14,124, 2020-03-12 L +$13,649, 2024-08-07 L +$10,934, 2025-04-23 L +$10,599, 2026-07-20 L +$10,559, 2025-10-10 L +$10,349 longs n=317 net +$233,220 avg +$736 PF 1.49 t 2.43; overnight 20.69 pts, day 16.90 pts (n 317) by year (n, net, avg, PF): 2020 44 +$93,491 +$2,125 4.95 | 2021 48 +$20,657 +$430 1.40 | 2022 66 -$9,931 -$150 0.93 | 2023 52 +$31,785 +$611 1.63 | 2024 48 +$6,904 +$144 1.08 | 2025 35 +$54,033 +$1,544 1.84 | 2026 24 +$36,281 +$1,512 1.66 MNQ conversion ($2 a point, $2.52 a round trip): net +$23,017, avg +$73 a trade, drawdown on closed trades -$4,114, approx. including open losses -$5,323 control (signal days moved by whole usable sessions, same direction and hold, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 316.84, median avg +$194, 5-95% -$190 .. +$623; real avg +$736 at percentile 98.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.09 [FAIL] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 210 / 59 / 48 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 2.24 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 98.40 [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: +$70,233 [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net +$87,703 PF 1.87 VERDICT Buried (3/6 gates) rule 3: 3 trades open across a known hole (2020-10-16, 2020-10-20, 2026-06-10); without them avg +$694, gates 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IBS-LS: long when IBS < 0.20, short when IBS > 0.80, out at the next close === DEV n= 561 net +$222,606 avg +$397 PF 1.30 t 2.33 win 51.0% VAL n= 154 net -$37,474 avg -$243 PF 0.87 t -0.65 win 46.8% HOLDOUT n= 155 net -$8,889 avg -$57 PF 0.98 t -0.10 win 46.5% ALL n=870 (51.6% of usable sessions) net +$176,243 avg +$203 a trade (gross +$219; gross 10.93 pts); PF 1.13 t 1.25; drawdown on closed trades -$79,670, approx. including open losses -$90,829 winners 49.4% (95% 46.1-52.7%); worst open loss -$23,180 (2025-04-03 long), 5th pct of open losses -$8,705; held through a roll 14 without the 10 best -$8,868, without the 20 best -$128,276; without 2020: n=734 net +$35,177 avg +$48 PF 1.03 t 0.26 10 best trades: 2025-04-08 L +$40,359, 2020-03-13 S +$19,949, 2026-06-10 L +$18,663, 2026-07-29 L +$17,819, 2022-11-09 L +$15,929, 2025-04-09 S +$15,329, 2025-03-07 S +$15,184, 2026-06-17 L +$14,124, 2022-09-12 S +$14,104, 2020-03-12 L +$13,649 longs n=317 net +$233,220 avg +$736 PF 1.49 t 2.43; overnight 20.69 pts, day 16.90 pts (n 317) shorts n=553 net -$56,976 avg -$103 PF 0.94 t -0.55; overnight -0.47 pts, day -4.45 pts (n 552) DEV longs n=210 net +$136,002 PF 1.50 | shorts n=351 net +$86,604 PF 1.19 VAL longs n=59 net +$9,515 PF 1.09 | shorts n=95 net -$46,989 PF 0.74 HOLDOUT longs n=48 net +$87,703 PF 1.87 | shorts n=107 net -$96,592 PF 0.63 by year (n, net, avg, PF): 2020 136 +$141,066 +$1,037 2.17 | 2021 140 -$7,724 -$55 0.96 | 2022 150 +$76,894 +$513 1.28 | 2023 135 +$12,370 +$92 1.08 | 2024 126 -$61,562 -$489 0.74 | 2025 109 +$45,211 +$415 1.23 | 2026 74 -$30,012 -$406 0.86 MNQ conversion ($2 a point, $2.52 a round trip): net +$16,790, avg +$19 a trade, drawdown on closed trades -$8,252, approx. including open losses -$9,256 control (signal days moved by whole usable sessions, same direction and hold, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 869.50, median avg -$76, 5-95% -$356 .. +$204; real avg +$203 at percentile 94.80 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.87 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 561 / 154 / 155 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 2.33 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 94.80 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$8,868 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$8,889 PF 0.98 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 9 trades open across a known hole (2020-03-13, 2020-10-16, 2020-10-19, 2020-10-20, 2021-04-01, 2023-04-06, 2025-08-28, 2026-04-02, 2026-06-10); without them avg +$165, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === Descriptive (not gates) === every usable session bought at the close and sold at the next close (the drift benchmark): n=1686 avg +$199 net (gross 10.77 pts) PF 1.12 t 1.69 next-session result of a long by IBS decile (all usable sessions): IBS 0.0-0.1: n= 173 long avg +$989 net, gross 50.23 pts (overnight 23.81, day 26.41), t 2.46 IBS 0.1-0.2: n= 144 long avg +$432 net, gross 22.40 pts (overnight 16.94, day 5.46), t 0.94 IBS 0.2-0.3: n= 145 long avg +$720 net, gross 36.80 pts (overnight 12.61, day 24.19), t 1.74 IBS 0.3-0.4: n= 136 long avg -$116 net, gross -4.97 pts (overnight 5.96, day -10.93), t -0.26 IBS 0.4-0.5: n= 120 long avg -$181 net, gross -8.26 pts (overnight -10.91, day 2.57), t -0.44 IBS 0.5-0.6: n= 104 long avg +$592 net, gross 30.43 pts (overnight 15.73, day 14.69), t 1.23 IBS 0.6-0.7: n= 142 long avg +$87 net, gross 5.18 pts (overnight 17.85, day -12.09), t 0.25 IBS 0.7-0.8: n= 169 long avg -$458 net, gross -22.13 pts (overnight 0.53, day -22.65), t -1.10 IBS 0.8-0.9: n= 245 long avg -$115 net, gross -4.92 pts (overnight -4.42, day 0.76), t -0.45 IBS 0.9-1.0: n= 308 long avg +$219 net, gross 11.73 pts (overnight 4.35, day 7.38), t 0.82 neighbouring thresholds (same periods, gates and 500-run control): L<0.10 n= 173 (118/30/25) avg +$989 PF 1.69 DEV t 1.71 VAL PF 2.57 HOLD +$39,980 pct 97.20 w/o top10 +$43,485 -> 4/6 L<0.15 n= 236 (156/43/37) avg +$660 PF 1.42 DEV t 1.98 VAL PF 1.10 HOLD +$42,216 pct 91.60 w/o top10 +$22,941 -> 2/6 L<0.25 n= 393 (258/70/65) avg +$903 PF 1.62 DEV t 2.22 VAL PF 1.26 HOLD +$176,460 pct 99.60 w/o top10 +$182,405 -> 5/6 L<0.30 n= 462 (303/77/82) avg +$731 PF 1.48 DEV t 2.26 VAL PF 1.11 HOLD +$162,037 pct 99.60 w/o top10 +$164,708 -> 4/6 LS 0.10/0.90 n= 481 (318/82/81) avg +$195 PF 1.12 DEV t 1.87 VAL PF 1.05 HOLD -$55,912 pct 88.60 w/o top10 -$57,861 -> 1/6; longs +$171,011, shorts -$77,136 LS 0.15/0.85 n= 675 (435/118/122) avg +$63 PF 1.04 DEV t 1.81 VAL PF 0.84 HOLD -$73,383 pct 79.40 w/o top10 -$115,741 -> 1/6; longs +$155,648, shorts -$113,202 LS 0.25/0.75 n=1029 (656/180/193) avg +$302 PF 1.19 DEV t 2.42 VAL PF 0.91 HOLD +$89,067 pct 99.20 w/o top10 +$112,976 -> 4/6; longs +$354,817, shorts -$44,024 LS 0.30/0.70 n=1184 (749/206/229) avg +$298 PF 1.19 DEV t 2.19 VAL PF 0.95 HOLD +$129,744 pct 99.40 w/o top10 +$140,838 -> 4/6; longs +$337,664, shorts +$15,150