Intraday momentum (first half-hour -> last half-hour) on ES futures (spec ih_spec.md). Run 2026-10-11T07:45:18.316Z; 500 control runs per variant data: 2378027 one-minute bars to 2026-09-25T16:59; 1737 days with US-session bars, 58 with an early scheduled close; cost $30.76 a trade, $50 a point last half-hour, all 1736 tradable days: average move -0.08 points ($-4.04), up on 49.1% of days; always long after costs: $-60,412 === IM-ES-OV-LS: first half-hour from the previous close, long and short === days: 1 cannot trade (no entry or exit bar, or closed before 10:30), 8 with no signal (zero return or a missing reference or 10:00 bar) DEV n= 1025 net $-45,892 avg $-44.77 PF 0.82 t -2.08 VAL n= 320 net $-4,093 avg $-12.79 PF 0.94 t -0.35 HOLDOUT n= 383 net $-15,006 avg $-39.18 PF 0.84 t -1.23 ALL n=1728 net $-64,991 avg $-37.61 (gross $-6.85, cost $30.76 a trade); points net -236.75; PF 0.84 t -2.34 win rate 783/1728 = 45.3% (95% Wilson 43.0-47.7%); the 10 best trades $33,830 longs n=959 net $-37,661 gross $-8,162 | shorts n=769 net $-27,329 gross $-3,675 drawdown on closed trades $-92,017 by year (n, net $): 2020 255 -1,419 | 2021 257 -26,293 | 2022 258 -19,724 | 2023 255 1,544 | 2024 258 -8,811 | 2025 255 -9,956 | 2026 190 -332 control (shifted daily signals, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 1,728, median avg $-31.74, 5-95% $-55.94 .. $-6.17; real avg $-37.61 at percentile 35.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.94 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1025 / 320 / 383 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -2.08 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 35.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-98,821 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net $-15,006 PF 0.84 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 14 trades touch a known hole; without them avg $-38.72, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IM-ES-OV-L: first half-hour from the previous close, long only === days: 1 cannot trade (no entry or exit bar, or closed before 10:30), 8 with no signal (zero return or a missing reference or 10:00 bar) DEV n= 565 net $-31,379 avg $-55.54 PF 0.76 t -2.18 VAL n= 182 net $-1,511 avg $-8.30 PF 0.95 t -0.20 HOLDOUT n= 212 net $-4,771 avg $-22.51 PF 0.90 t -0.54 ALL n=959 net $-37,661 avg $-39.27 (gross $-8.51, cost $30.76 a trade); points net -163.25; PF 0.82 t -2.04 win rate 430/959 = 44.8% (95% Wilson 41.7-48.0%); the 10 best trades $24,530 longs n=959 net $-37,661 gross $-8,162 | shorts n=0 net $0 gross $0 drawdown on closed trades $-58,207 by year (n, net $): 2020 140 1,944 | 2021 152 -23,251 | 2022 128 -11,462 | 2023 145 1,390 | 2024 153 -4,769 | 2025 141 -2,850 | 2026 100 1,336 control (shifted daily signals, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 959, median avg $-35.47, 5-95% $-56.70 .. $-12.72; real avg $-39.27 at percentile 38.80 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.95 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 565 / 182 / 212 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -2.18 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 38.80 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-62,191 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net $-4,771 PF 0.90 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 5 trades touch a known hole; without them avg $-40.13, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IM-ES-RTH-LS: first half-hour from the 09:30 open, long and short === days: 1 cannot trade (no entry or exit bar, or closed before 10:30), 21 with no signal (zero return or a missing reference or 10:00 bar) DEV n= 1020 net $-40,000 avg $-39.22 PF 0.84 t -1.82 VAL n= 317 net $-15,726 avg $-49.61 PF 0.79 t -1.36 HOLDOUT n= 378 net $-20,352 avg $-53.84 PF 0.79 t -1.68 ALL n=1715 net $-76,078 avg $-44.36 (gross $-13.60, cost $30.76 a trade); points net -466.50; PF 0.82 t -2.75 win rate 774/1715 = 45.1% (95% Wilson 42.8-47.5%); the 10 best trades $31,892 longs n=912 net $-42,341 gross $-14,287 | shorts n=803 net $-33,738 gross $-9,037 drawdown on closed trades $-78,134 by year (n, net $): 2020 256 -8,075 | 2021 255 -12,131 | 2022 258 -22,199 | 2023 251 2,404 | 2024 255 -17,769 | 2025 253 -7,557 | 2026 187 -10,752 control (shifted daily signals, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 1,715, median avg $-31.28, 5-95% $-55.97 .. $-6.53; real avg $-44.36 at percentile 20.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.79 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1020 / 317 / 378 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.82 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 20.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-107,971 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net $-20,352 PF 0.79 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 1 trades touch a known hole; without them avg $-44.02, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IM-ES-RTH-L: first half-hour from the 09:30 open, long only === days: 1 cannot trade (no entry or exit bar, or closed before 10:30), 21 with no signal (zero return or a missing reference or 10:00 bar) DEV n= 541 net $-28,179 avg $-52.09 PF 0.77 t -2.11 VAL n= 157 net $-6,529 avg $-41.59 PF 0.81 t -0.85 HOLDOUT n= 214 net $-7,633 avg $-35.67 PF 0.85 t -0.90 ALL n=912 net $-42,341 avg $-46.43 (gross $-15.67, cost $30.76 a trade); points net -285.75; PF 0.79 t -2.41 win rate 404/912 = 44.3% (95% Wilson 41.1-47.5%); the 10 best trades $21,792 longs n=912 net $-42,341 gross $-14,287 | shorts n=0 net $0 gross $0 drawdown on closed trades $-51,398 by year (n, net $): 2020 127 -969 | 2021 142 -16,230 | 2022 131 -12,792 | 2023 141 1,813 | 2024 128 -8,450 | 2025 135 -1,515 | 2026 108 -4,197 control (shifted daily signals, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 912, median avg $-34.98, 5-95% $-58.94 .. $-11.72; real avg $-46.43 at percentile 21.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.81 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 541 / 157 / 214 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -2.11 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 21.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-64,133 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net $-7,633 PF 0.85 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 0 trades touch a known hole; without them avg $-46.43, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)