Intraday momentum (first half-hour -> last half-hour) on NQ futures (spec ih_spec.md). Run 2026-10-11T07:45:23.061Z; 500 control runs per variant data: 2373779 one-minute bars to 2026-09-25T17:00; 1735 days with US-session bars, 58 with an early scheduled close; cost $15.76 a trade, $20 a point last half-hour, all 1733 tradable days: average move 0.21 points ($4.19), up on 50.1% of days; always long after costs: $-20,052 === IM-NQ-OV-LS: first half-hour from the previous close, long and short === days: 2 cannot trade (no entry or exit bar, or closed before 10:30), 7 with no signal (zero return or a missing reference or 10:00 bar) DEV n= 1025 net $-44,864 avg $-43.77 PF 0.87 t -1.44 VAL n= 319 net $-4,342 avg $-13.61 PF 0.96 t -0.23 HOLDOUT n= 382 net $14,380 avg $37.64 PF 1.09 t 0.60 ALL n=1726 net $-34,827 avg $-20.18 (gross $-4.42, cost $15.76 a trade); points net -381.25; PF 0.94 t -0.79 win rate 845/1726 = 49.0% (95% Wilson 46.6-51.3%); the 10 best trades $53,607 longs n=960 net $-16,725 gross $-1,595 | shorts n=766 net $-18,102 gross $-6,030 drawdown on closed trades $-108,219 by year (n, net $): 2020 256 22,315 | 2021 256 -28,505 | 2022 258 -27,931 | 2023 255 -10,744 | 2024 257 -4,090 | 2025 256 -14,300 | 2026 188 28,427 control (shifted daily signals, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 1,726, median avg $-15.10, 5-95% $-59.25 .. $25.58; real avg $-20.18 at percentile 43.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.96 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1025 / 319 / 382 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.44 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 43.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-88,434 [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net $14,380 PF 1.09 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 17 trades touch a known hole; without them avg $-25.37, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IM-NQ-OV-L: first half-hour from the previous close, long only === days: 2 cannot trade (no entry or exit bar, or closed before 10:30), 7 with no signal (zero return or a missing reference or 10:00 bar) DEV n= 579 net $-29,990 avg $-51.80 PF 0.84 t -1.38 VAL n= 173 net $-4,361 avg $-25.21 PF 0.92 t -0.40 HOLDOUT n= 208 net $17,627 avg $84.74 PF 1.23 t 1.08 ALL n=960 net $-16,725 avg $-17.42 (gross $-1.66, cost $15.76 a trade); points net -79.75; PF 0.95 t -0.57 win rate 469/960 = 48.9% (95% Wilson 45.7-52.0%); the 10 best trades $34,757 longs n=960 net $-16,725 gross $-1,595 | shorts n=0 net $0 gross $0 drawdown on closed trades $-64,925 by year (n, net $): 2020 156 13,976 | 2021 154 -22,252 | 2022 125 -16,135 | 2023 144 -5,579 | 2024 145 -4,985 | 2025 138 -3,115 | 2026 98 21,366 control (shifted daily signals, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 960, median avg $-10.95, 5-95% $-51.47 .. $26.26; real avg $-17.42 at percentile 39.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.92 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 579 / 173 / 208 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.38 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 39.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-51,482 [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net $17,627 PF 1.23 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 7 trades touch a known hole; without them avg $-20.94, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IM-NQ-RTH-LS: first half-hour from the 09:30 open, long and short === days: 2 cannot trade (no entry or exit bar, or closed before 10:30), 7 with no signal (zero return or a missing reference or 10:00 bar) DEV n= 1025 net $-25,639 avg $-25.01 PF 0.93 t -0.82 VAL n= 319 net $-3,897 avg $-12.22 PF 0.97 t -0.20 HOLDOUT n= 382 net $-22,360 avg $-58.53 PF 0.87 t -0.93 ALL n=1726 net $-51,897 avg $-30.07 (gross $-14.31, cost $15.76 a trade); points net -1234.75; PF 0.92 t -1.18 win rate 813/1726 = 47.1% (95% Wilson 44.8-49.5%); the 10 best trades $51,032 longs n=928 net $-23,075 gross $-8,450 | shorts n=798 net $-28,821 gross $-16,245 drawdown on closed trades $-76,160 by year (n, net $): 2020 255 15,861 | 2021 257 -17,630 | 2022 258 -10,001 | 2023 255 -13,869 | 2024 257 -15,875 | 2025 256 9,360 | 2026 188 -19,743 control (shifted daily signals, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 1,726, median avg $-15.61, 5-95% $-57.14 .. $26.11; real avg $-30.07 at percentile 28.80 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.97 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1025 / 319 / 382 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.82 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 28.80 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-102,929 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net $-22,360 PF 0.87 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 1 trades touch a known hole; without them avg $-30.53, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === IM-NQ-RTH-L: first half-hour from the 09:30 open, long only === days: 2 cannot trade (no entry or exit bar, or closed before 10:30), 7 with no signal (zero return or a missing reference or 10:00 bar) DEV n= 564 net $-19,004 avg $-33.69 PF 0.90 t -0.87 VAL n= 154 net $-3,297 avg $-21.41 PF 0.94 t -0.26 HOLDOUT n= 210 net $-775 avg $-3.69 PF 0.99 t -0.05 ALL n=928 net $-23,075 avg $-24.87 (gross $-9.11, cost $15.76 a trade); points net -422.50; PF 0.93 t -0.78 win rate 437/928 = 47.1% (95% Wilson 43.9-50.3%); the 10 best trades $33,417 longs n=928 net $-23,075 gross $-8,450 | shorts n=0 net $0 gross $0 drawdown on closed trades $-46,391 by year (n, net $): 2020 143 11,626 | 2021 137 -16,329 | 2022 138 -7,375 | 2023 146 -6,926 | 2024 120 -9,941 | 2025 138 8,715 | 2026 106 -2,846 control (shifted daily signals, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 928, median avg $-11.91, 5-95% $-49.32 .. $26.15; real avg $-24.87 at percentile 28.80 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.94 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 564 / 154 / 210 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.87 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 28.80 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-56,493 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net $-775 PF 0.99 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 1 trades touch a known hole; without them avg $-25.72, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)