Intraday Trend Pullback on Bitcoin (spec tp_btc_spec.md). Run 2026-10-14T08:21:26.701Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in percent of the entry price per trade.
data: 4789278 one-minute bars, 319294 15-minute bars, 79837 1-hour bars, 2017-08-17 04:00 .. 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC (minute opens)

=== BTC-TP-LS: long and short ===
  DEV      n= 4268 net -367.18 %  avg -0.0860 %  PF 0.85 t -3.66
  VAL      n= 2958 net -333.38 %  avg -0.1127 %  PF 0.74 t -6.21
  HOLDOUT  n= 3300 net -343.77 %  avg -0.1042 %  PF 0.72 t -7.55
  ALL      n=10526 net -1044.33 % avg -0.0992 % (gross 0.0008 %, cost 0.1000 % a trade); PF 0.79 t -8.52; in R: net -2206.18 R avg -0.210 R
  win rate 3804/10526 = 36.1% (95% Wilson 35.2-37.1%); ended by {"target":2841,"end of day":1914,"stop":5771}; average risk 0.780 % of the price; average minutes held 221; the 10 best trades 102.79 %
  longs n=5499 net -476.49 % gross 73.45 % | shorts n=5027 net -567.84 % gross -65.11 %
  drawdown on closed trades -1094.43 %; funding scenario A (0.01% at 08:00 and 16:00 UTC) net -1047.54 %
  by year (n, net %): 2017 316 7.76 | 2018 1132 -118.13 | 2019 1134 -86.83 | 2020 1128 -136.99 | 2021 1145 -130.23 | 2022 1178 -146.14 | 2023 1193 -90.01 | 2024 1195 -99.72 | 2025 1216 -139.03 | 2026 889 -105.02
  by entry time, 4-hour blocks UTC (n, net %): 00h 2629 -191.23 | 04h 1668 -208.29 | 08h 1620 -218.50 | 12h 1840 -173.30 | 16h 1411 -110.96 | 20h 1358 -142.06
  control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 10 s): mean trades 8404.40, median avg -0.1010 %, 5-95% -0.1172 .. -0.0845 %; real avg -0.0992 % at percentile 56.80
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.74
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4268 / 2958 / 3300
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -3.66
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 56.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1147.12 %
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (used once): HOLDOUT net -343.77 % PF 0.72
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 10 trades are open across a gap of 10 minutes or more; without them avg -0.0993 %, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== BTC-TP-L: long only ===
  DEV      n= 2323 net -147.06 %  avg -0.0633 %  PF 0.88 t -2.16
  VAL      n= 1448 net -160.38 %  avg -0.1108 %  PF 0.73 t -4.76
  HOLDOUT  n= 1784 net -176.08 %  avg -0.0987 %  PF 0.72 t -5.70
  ALL      n=5555 net -483.52 % avg -0.0870 % (gross 0.0130 %, cost 0.1000 % a trade); PF 0.81 t -5.89; in R: net -1144.58 R avg -0.206 R
  win rate 2061/5555 = 37.1% (95% Wilson 35.8-38.4%); ended by {"stop":3010,"end of day":1100,"target":1445}; average risk 0.754 % of the price; average minutes held 234; the 10 best trades 78.72 %
  longs n=5555 net -483.52 % gross 72.01 % | shorts n=0 net 0.00 % gross 0.00 %
  drawdown on closed trades -540.89 %; funding scenario A (0.01% at 08:00 and 16:00 UTC) net -501.38 %
  by year (n, net %): 2017 243 24.72 | 2018 434 -36.38 | 2019 599 -53.28 | 2020 733 -71.21 | 2021 618 -60.43 | 2022 463 -67.93 | 2023 681 -42.94 | 2024 715 -48.78 | 2025 615 -68.27 | 2026 454 -59.03
  by entry time, 4-hour blocks UTC (n, net %): 00h 1388 -129.02 | 04h 924 -114.02 | 08h 865 -82.89 | 12h 953 -54.57 | 16h 748 -31.60 | 20h 677 -71.42
  control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 6 s): mean trades 4532.31, median avg -0.0981 %, 5-95% -0.1206 .. -0.0797 %; real avg -0.0870 % at percentile 84.00
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.73
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2323 / 1448 / 1784
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -2.16
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 84.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -562.24 %
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (used once): HOLDOUT net -176.08 % PF 0.72
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 3 trades are open across a gap of 10 minutes or more; without them avg -0.0870 %, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 4261.48 -> 83623.6