Noise Area Breakout on Bitcoin, UTC day 00:00-24:00, every day (spec na_btc_spec.md, frozen 2026-10-15). Run 2026-10-15T08:00:11.818Z; 500 control runs per variant data: 4789278 one-minute bars, 2017-08-17T04:01 .. 2026-10-01T00:00 UTC (close stamps); 3301 UTC days traded from 2017-09-15 (944 Saturdays or Sundays); 30 touch a gap of 10 minutes or more costs: 0.05% of the price on every fill; results in percent of the entry price per trade (summed % = dollars per $100 on every trade) === NA-BTC-24H-LS: long and short === DEV 2017-09-15..2021-06-30 n= 4459 net -537.52 % avg -0.121 % PF 0.75 t -4.87 win 22.4% VAL 2021-07-01..2023-12-31 n= 2882 net -262.98 % avg -0.091 % PF 0.75 t -4.07 win 20.2% HOLDOUT 2024-01-01..2026-09-30 n= 3349 net -306.69 % avg -0.092 % PF 0.71 t -5.57 win 21.6% ALL n=10690 on 3001 days; net -1107.19 % summed, avg -0.104 % a trade (gross -0.004 %, cost 0.100 %); PF 0.74 t -7.95; ended by {"stop":9484,"session close":1206}, of which 79 flips; mean holding 154 minutes win rate 2305/10690 = 21.6% (95% Wilson 20.8-22.4%); the 10 best trades 158.69 %; drawdown on closed trades -1116.61 % summed longs n=5236 net -308.12 % gross 215.58 % avg -0.059 | shorts n=5454 net -799.07 % gross -253.54 % avg -0.147 by year (n, net %, gross %): 2017 367 -83.90 -47.13 | 2018 1179 -225.33 -107.42 | 2019 1078 -12.79 95.03 | 2020 1195 -90.67 28.89 | 2021 1171 -164.83 -47.69 | 2022 1139 -137.36 -23.47 | 2023 1212 -85.63 35.60 | 2024 1235 -90.80 32.73 | 2025 1256 -156.14 -30.54 | 2026 858 -59.75 26.06 weekdays n=8416 avg -0.080 % net -672.18 % | weekends n=2274 avg -0.191 % net -435.01 % by day: Sun 1172 -0.168 | Mon 1738 0.031 | Tue 1601 -0.093 | Wed 1692 -0.142 | Thu 1686 -0.077 | Fri 1699 -0.123 | Sat 1102 -0.216 by entry hour UTC (n, avg %): 00h 1223 -0.101 | 01h 935 -0.086 | 02h 731 -0.089 | 03h 598 -0.148 | 04h 495 -0.149 | 05h 452 -0.096 | 06h 423 -0.149 | 07h 450 -0.179 | 08h 471 -0.144 | 09h 422 -0.079 | 10h 393 -0.077 | 11h 359 -0.105 | 12h 403 -0.017 | 13h 370 -0.181 | 14h 462 0.027 | 15h 391 -0.044 | 16h 312 0.012 | 17h 297 -0.192 | 18h 281 -0.160 | 19h 243 -0.153 | 20h 250 -0.155 | 21h 250 -0.167 | 22h 242 -0.059 | 23h 237 -0.051 funding scenario A (0.01% at 08:00 and 16:00 UTC held): avg -0.104 % a trade; by period DEV -0.121, VAL -0.091, HOLDOUT -0.092 control (first entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 12 s): mean trades 10,468, median avg -0.099 %, 5-95% -0.110 .. -0.089; real avg -0.104 % at percentile 23.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.75 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4459 / 2882 / 3349 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -4.87 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 23.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1265.88 % summed [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used twice): HOLDOUT net -306.69 % summed, PF 0.71 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 66 trades on days touching a gap; without them avg -0.104 %, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === NA-BTC-24H-L: long only === DEV 2017-09-15..2021-06-30 n= 2162 net -101.78 % avg -0.047 % PF 0.89 t -1.38 win 23.8% VAL 2021-07-01..2023-12-31 n= 1421 net -95.21 % avg -0.067 % PF 0.81 t -2.15 win 21.7% HOLDOUT 2024-01-01..2026-09-30 n= 1653 net -111.14 % avg -0.067 % PF 0.78 t -2.74 win 21.5% ALL n=5236 on 1969 days; net -308.12 % summed, avg -0.059 % a trade (gross 0.041 %, cost 0.100 %); PF 0.84 t -3.24; ended by {"stop":4579,"session close":657}, of which 0 flips; mean holding 160 minutes win rate 1179/5236 = 22.5% (95% Wilson 21.4-23.7%); the 10 best trades 123.08 %; drawdown on closed trades -356.01 % summed longs n=5236 net -308.12 % gross 215.58 % avg -0.059 | shorts n=0 net 0.00 % gross 0.00 % avg -- by year (n, net %, gross %): 2017 201 20.08 40.20 | 2018 534 -99.80 -46.42 | 2019 531 11.07 64.20 | 2020 580 15.02 73.06 | 2021 575 -50.06 7.44 | 2022 522 -76.60 -24.41 | 2023 640 -16.69 47.33 | 2024 608 -12.15 48.68 | 2025 634 -82.31 -18.92 | 2026 411 -16.69 24.43 weekdays n=4006 avg -0.021 % net -82.64 % | weekends n=1230 avg -0.183 % net -225.48 % by day: Sun 622 -0.166 | Mon 833 0.129 | Tue 721 -0.073 | Wed 854 -0.049 | Thu 802 -0.102 | Fri 796 -0.018 | Sat 608 -0.201 by entry hour UTC (n, avg %): 00h 624 -0.119 | 01h 481 -0.106 | 02h 358 0.023 | 03h 261 -0.112 | 04h 255 -0.148 | 05h 216 -0.090 | 06h 208 -0.201 | 07h 232 -0.116 | 08h 234 -0.067 | 09h 192 -0.149 | 10h 181 -0.029 | 11h 172 -0.069 | 12h 200 0.157 | 13h 188 -0.146 | 14h 220 0.120 | 15h 194 0.055 | 16h 161 0.104 | 17h 139 -0.152 | 18h 132 0.045 | 19h 119 -0.007 | 20h 113 -0.048 | 21h 125 -0.045 | 22h 118 -0.013 | 23h 113 -0.036 funding scenario A (0.01% at 08:00 and 16:00 UTC held): avg -0.061 % a trade; by period DEV -0.049, VAL -0.069, HOLDOUT -0.069 control (first entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 7 s): mean trades 3,974, median avg -0.064 %, 5-95% -0.087 .. -0.043; real avg -0.059 % at percentile 65.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.81 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2162 / 1421 / 1653 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.38 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 65.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -431.21 % summed [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used twice): HOLDOUT net -111.14 % summed, PF 0.78 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 36 trades on days touching a gap; without them avg -0.060 %, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)