Noise Area Breakout on XAU (spec na_spec.md), clock: corrected (clock audit). Run 2026-10-11T13:37:27.668Z; 500 control runs per variant data: 7067434 one-minute bars, 2004-06-11T01:19 .. 2026-10-07T16:57; cost 0.3 $/oz a round trip ##### AS session: 5823 weekday sessions in the data range, 4610 with an open and a close bar, 4526 with a previous close; 27 touch a known hole === NA-XAU-AS-LS: long and short === DEV n= 682 net 15 $/oz avg 0.02 PF 1.02 t 0.15 VAL n= 1373 net -375 $/oz avg -0.27 PF 0.71 t -3.38 HOLDOUT n= 1346 net 348 $/oz avg 0.26 PF 1.12 t 0.79 ALL n=3401 on 2336 sessions; net -12 $/oz avg -0.00 (gross 0.30, cost 0.3 a trade); PF 1.00 t -0.03; ended by {"session close":1057,"stop":2344} win rate 1036/3401 = 30.5% (95% Wilson 28.9-32.0%); the 10 best trades 955; drawdown on closed trades -959 longs n=1720 net 76 gross 592 | shorts n=1681 net -89 gross 416 by year (n, net): 2006 2 -0 | 2007 13 -6 | 2008 85 -57 | 2009 122 -12 | 2010 122 -35 | 2011 148 106 | 2012 190 20 | 2013 193 -93 | 2014 209 -45 | 2015 185 -52 | 2016 222 -13 | 2017 169 -25 | 2018 210 -70 | 2019 185 -77 | 2020 209 -88 | 2021 204 -116 | 2022 200 -55 | 2023 188 -87 | 2024 214 -88 | 2025 191 -124 | 2026 140 907 control (first entries moved to other sessions, 500 runs, 4 s): mean trades 3,254, median avg -0.18, 5-95% -0.30 .. -0.04; real avg -0.00 at percentile 98.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.71 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 682 / 1373 / 1346 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.15 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 98.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -967 $/oz [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 348 $/oz PF 1.12 VERDICT Buried (3/6 gates) rule 3: 6 trades in sessions touching a known hole; without them avg -0.00, gates passed 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === NA-XAU-AS-L: long only === DEV n= 357 net 39 $/oz avg 0.11 PF 1.12 t 0.62 VAL n= 655 net -53 $/oz avg -0.08 PF 0.91 t -0.61 HOLDOUT n= 708 net 91 $/oz avg 0.13 PF 1.06 t 0.36 ALL n=1720 on 1229 sessions; net 76 $/oz avg 0.04 (gross 0.34, cost 0.3 a trade); PF 1.03 t 0.28; ended by {"session close":570,"stop":1150} win rate 572/1720 = 33.3% (95% Wilson 31.1-35.5%); the 10 best trades 529; drawdown on closed trades -330 longs n=1720 net 76 gross 592 | shorts n=0 net 0 gross 0 by year (n, net): 2006 1 -1 | 2007 7 -1 | 2008 33 -32 | 2009 64 15 | 2010 70 -8 | 2011 84 69 | 2012 98 -5 | 2013 79 -43 | 2014 104 -21 | 2015 82 19 | 2016 114 53 | 2017 73 14 | 2018 98 -28 | 2019 105 -47 | 2020 109 -69 | 2021 87 -25 | 2022 92 -37 | 2023 106 -59 | 2024 125 -21 | 2025 113 52 | 2026 76 250 control (first entries moved to other sessions, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 1,388, median avg -0.20, 5-95% -0.39 .. -0.03; real avg 0.04 at percentile 98.80 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.91 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 357 / 655 / 708 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.62 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 98.80 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -453 $/oz [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 91 $/oz PF 1.06 VERDICT Buried (3/6 gates) rule 3: 3 trades in sessions touching a known hole; without them avg 0.05, gates passed 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) ##### LD session: 5824 weekday sessions in the data range, 5146 with an open and a close bar, 5045 with a previous close; 34 touch a known hole === NA-XAU-LD-LS: long and short === DEV n= 1821 net -316 $/oz avg -0.17 PF 0.90 t -1.32 VAL n= 2182 net -168 $/oz avg -0.08 PF 0.94 t -0.79 HOLDOUT n= 2210 net -329 $/oz avg -0.15 PF 0.95 t -0.58 ALL n=6213 on 3564 sessions; net -814 $/oz avg -0.13 (gross 0.17, cost 0.3 a trade); PF 0.94 t -1.25; ended by {"session close":1492,"stop":4721} win rate 1764/6213 = 28.4% (95% Wilson 27.3-29.5%); the 10 best trades 1,072; drawdown on closed trades -890 longs n=3205 net -1,086 gross -125 | shorts n=3008 net 272 gross 1,175 by year (n, net): 2004 2 -1 | 2005 15 -8 | 2006 34 -21 | 2007 190 -34 | 2008 325 34 | 2009 308 -64 | 2010 326 -140 | 2011 320 -86 | 2012 301 4 | 2013 290 180 | 2014 315 -35 | 2015 306 15 | 2016 319 -111 | 2017 322 -107 | 2018 327 -49 | 2019 303 -61 | 2020 327 179 | 2021 333 -130 | 2022 336 -142 | 2023 305 73 | 2024 331 47 | 2025 345 -3 | 2026 233 -355 control (first entries moved to other sessions, 500 runs, 6 s): mean trades 6,059, median avg -0.21, 5-95% -0.33 .. -0.12; real avg -0.13 at percentile 92.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.94 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1821 / 2182 / 2210 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.32 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 92.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1,886 $/oz [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -329 $/oz PF 0.95 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 26 trades in sessions touching a known hole; without them avg -0.13, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === NA-XAU-LD-L: long only === DEV n= 910 net -107 $/oz avg -0.12 PF 0.92 t -0.72 VAL n= 1067 net -205 $/oz avg -0.19 PF 0.85 t -1.54 HOLDOUT n= 1228 net -774 $/oz avg -0.63 PF 0.78 t -2.76 ALL n=3205 on 1959 sessions; net -1,086 $/oz avg -0.34 (gross -0.04, cost 0.3 a trade); PF 0.83 t -3.15; ended by {"session close":775,"stop":2430} win rate 928/3205 = 29.0% (95% Wilson 27.4-30.5%); the 10 best trades 452; drawdown on closed trades -1,198 longs n=3205 net -1,086 gross -125 | shorts n=0 net 0 gross 0 by year (n, net): 2004 2 -1 | 2005 10 -4 | 2006 16 -2 | 2007 105 -22 | 2008 149 76 | 2009 145 16 | 2010 166 -21 | 2011 175 -155 | 2012 142 6 | 2013 108 -66 | 2014 154 22 | 2015 135 -11 | 2016 151 -32 | 2017 179 -37 | 2018 166 -37 | 2019 174 -45 | 2020 184 25 | 2021 171 -157 | 2022 171 -121 | 2023 168 1 | 2024 202 -93 | 2025 221 -25 | 2026 111 -404 control (first entries moved to other sessions, 500 runs, 4 s): mean trades 2,498, median avg -0.32, 5-95% -0.47 .. -0.19; real avg -0.34 at percentile 43.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.85 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 910 / 1067 / 1228 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.72 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 43.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -1,538 $/oz [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -774 $/oz PF 0.78 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 18 trades in sessions touching a known hole; without them avg -0.33, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) ##### NY session: 5823 weekday sessions in the data range, 5060 with an open and a close bar, 4956 with a previous close; 636 touch a known hole === NA-XAU-NY-LS: long and short === DEV n= 1259 net 57 $/oz avg 0.04 PF 1.03 t 0.25 VAL n= 1465 net -126 $/oz avg -0.09 PF 0.93 t -0.77 HOLDOUT n= 1464 net -9 $/oz avg -0.01 PF 1.00 t -0.02 ALL n=4188 on 2795 sessions; net -78 $/oz avg -0.02 (gross 0.28, cost 0.3 a trade); PF 0.99 t -0.14; ended by {"session close":1310,"stop":2878} win rate 1405/4188 = 33.5% (95% Wilson 32.1-35.0%); the 10 best trades 801; drawdown on closed trades -538 longs n=2114 net 254 gross 888 | shorts n=2074 net -332 gross 290 by year (n, net): 2004 9 -9 | 2005 27 -16 | 2006 48 -5 | 2007 165 -96 | 2008 217 39 | 2009 192 65 | 2010 196 -26 | 2011 213 71 | 2012 192 34 | 2013 199 176 | 2014 195 23 | 2015 209 -79 | 2016 202 -6 | 2017 220 -159 | 2018 206 -49 | 2019 234 -33 | 2020 220 -48 | 2021 184 -124 | 2022 236 75 | 2023 217 49 | 2024 229 -14 | 2025 204 132 | 2026 174 -78 control (first entries moved to other sessions, 500 runs, 4 s): mean trades 4,118, median avg -0.20, 5-95% -0.37 .. -0.06; real avg -0.02 at percentile 98.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.93 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1259 / 1465 / 1464 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.25 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 98.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -879 $/oz [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -9 $/oz PF 1.00 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 527 trades in sessions touching a known hole; without them avg -0.05, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === NA-XAU-NY-L: long only === DEV n= 606 net 78 $/oz avg 0.13 PF 1.09 t 0.63 VAL n= 713 net -4 $/oz avg -0.01 PF 1.00 t -0.03 HOLDOUT n= 795 net 179 $/oz avg 0.23 PF 1.08 t 0.63 ALL n=2114 on 1462 sessions; net 254 $/oz avg 0.12 (gross 0.42, cost 0.3 a trade); PF 1.06 t 0.77; ended by {"stop":1448,"session close":666} win rate 726/2114 = 34.3% (95% Wilson 32.3-36.4%); the 10 best trades 519; drawdown on closed trades -264 longs n=2114 net 254 gross 888 | shorts n=0 net 0 gross 0 by year (n, net): 2004 4 -3 | 2005 10 -1 | 2006 21 -32 | 2007 85 -20 | 2008 107 44 | 2009 91 43 | 2010 97 -21 | 2011 102 18 | 2012 89 49 | 2013 81 52 | 2014 91 36 | 2015 102 -3 | 2016 97 9 | 2017 113 -51 | 2018 100 -49 | 2019 129 1 | 2020 120 -2 | 2021 89 -66 | 2022 136 72 | 2023 114 49 | 2024 132 -25 | 2025 111 110 | 2026 93 42 control (first entries moved to other sessions, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 1,707, median avg -0.17, 5-95% -0.42 .. 0.04; real avg 0.12 at percentile 98.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.00 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 606 / 713 / 795 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.63 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 98.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -264 $/oz [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 179 $/oz PF 1.08 VERDICT Buried (3/6 gates) rule 3: 268 trades in sessions touching a known hole; without them avg 0.17, gates passed 3/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)