Parabolic SAR (Wilder 0.02/0.02/0.20) on EURUSD 1-hour bars (spec ps_spec.md). Run 2026-10-22T08:07:00.409Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in pips per trade after 1.0 pip a round trip; fills at the SAR level. data: 8326700 minutes 2004-01-01 00:03 .. 2026-09-28 15:46 New York; 141042 1-hour bars; reversals from bar 500: 11941 (one every 11.77 bars); EURUSD 1.2593 -> 1.13685 === PS-SAR: Wilder's stop and reverse, always in the market === DEV n= 4650 net 285.49 pips avg 0.06 PF 1.00 t 0.07 VAL n= 3590 net -489.98 pips avg -0.14 PF 0.99 t -0.20 HOLDOUT n= 3701 net -8563.45 pips avg -2.31 PF 0.83 t -4.14 ALL n=11941 net -8767.95 pips avg -0.73 (gross 0.27); PF 0.96 t -1.68; at x1.5 cost -1.23, x2.5 -2.23; swap stress -1.08 pips a trade; drawdown on closed trades -10671.90 pips winners 35.4% (95% 34.6-36.3%); hours held median 11.18; time in the market 99.7%; without the 10 best -12748.75 pips longs n=5971 net -4909.48 gross 1061.52 | shorts n=5970 net -3858.47 gross 2111.53 by year (n, net pips): 2004 496 9.00 | 2005 539 -1059.24 | 2006 518 -2643.64 | 2007 467 1077.77 | 2008 498 3497.07 | 2009 558 -2125.14 | 2010 520 1539.08 | 2011 559 -2179.25 | 2012 495 2169.84 | 2013 489 -425.67 | 2014 481 723.03 | 2015 500 493.14 | 2016 534 -605.83 | 2017 520 462.88 | 2018 539 -341.96 | 2019 527 -795.58 | 2020 540 -1030.01 | 2021 569 -906.39 | 2022 550 -2065.51 | 2023 555 -759.75 | 2024 534 -1062.42 | 2025 552 -1903.65 | 2026 401 -835.73 control (shifted holdings, 500 runs, 20 s): mean trades 11939.00, median avg -1.01, 5-95% -1.76 .. -0.24; real avg -0.73 at percentile 72.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.99 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 4650 / 3590 / 3701 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.07 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 72.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -12748.75 pips [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -8563.45 pips PF 0.83 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 154 trades open across a suspect gap; without them avg -1.17, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === PS-200: enter only with the 200-bar EMA, exit at the next reversal === DEV n= 2067 net 166.29 pips avg 0.08 PF 1.00 t 0.06 VAL n= 1591 net -1057.05 pips avg -0.66 PF 0.96 t -0.65 HOLDOUT n= 1669 net -3702.50 pips avg -2.22 PF 0.84 t -2.56 ALL n=5327 net -4593.27 pips avg -0.86 (gross 0.14); PF 0.95 t -1.27; at x1.5 cost -1.36, x2.5 -2.36; swap stress -1.21 pips a trade; drawdown on closed trades -5864.71 pips winners 35.3% (95% 34.0-36.6%); hours held median 11.13; time in the market 44.8%; without the 10 best -8143.76 pips longs n=2629 net 33.03 gross 2662.03 | shorts n=2698 net -4626.29 gross -1928.29 by year (n, net pips): 2004 221 -875.14 | 2005 242 -444.36 | 2006 221 -1124.56 | 2007 204 789.05 | 2008 225 2479.18 | 2009 252 -1359.94 | 2010 233 1125.32 | 2011 248 -1306.53 | 2012 221 883.27 | 2013 215 -671.53 | 2014 216 194.92 | 2015 227 525.67 | 2016 231 -676.23 | 2017 229 506.06 | 2018 238 -507.25 | 2019 235 -428.69 | 2020 240 92.70 | 2021 257 -192.07 | 2022 243 -1335.49 | 2023 253 -609.51 | 2024 252 -656.40 | 2025 244 -756.37 | 2026 180 -245.36 control (shifted holdings, 500 runs, 10 s): mean trades 5326.54, median avg -1.06, 5-95% -2.08 .. 0.14; real avg -0.86 at percentile 59.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.96 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2067 / 1591 / 1669 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.06 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 59.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -8143.76 pips [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -3702.50 pips PF 0.84 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 78 trades open across a suspect gap; without them avg -1.30, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === PS-ADX: enter only when ADX(14) >= 25, exit at the next reversal === DEV n= 2495 net -4588.28 pips avg -1.84 PF 0.92 t -1.57 VAL n= 1827 net -2720.57 pips avg -1.49 PF 0.90 t -1.65 HOLDOUT n= 1750 net -5225.19 pips avg -2.99 PF 0.77 t -3.90 ALL n=6072 net -12534.05 pips avg -2.06 (gross -1.06); PF 0.88 t -3.47; at x1.5 cost -2.56, x2.5 -3.56; swap stress -2.39 pips a trade; drawdown on closed trades -12578.96 pips winners 33.6% (95% 32.4-34.8%); hours held median 10.37; time in the market 48.3%; without the 10 best -16207.69 pips longs n=3061 net -10786.96 gross -7725.96 | shorts n=3011 net -1747.09 gross 1263.91 by year (n, net pips): 2004 283 -958.41 | 2005 282 -539.09 | 2006 301 -1662.57 | 2007 242 -232.49 | 2008 253 2459.27 | 2009 278 -2488.00 | 2010 296 446.65 | 2011 278 -2015.03 | 2012 282 401.40 | 2013 241 -451.48 | 2014 260 -604.63 | 2015 249 -675.16 | 2016 279 -3.53 | 2017 251 611.54 | 2018 297 -904.53 | 2019 250 -692.78 | 2020 274 -448.79 | 2021 269 -838.09 | 2022 237 -1183.45 | 2023 267 -229.39 | 2024 249 -317.28 | 2025 265 -1542.41 | 2026 189 -665.80 control (shifted holdings, 500 runs, 12 s): mean trades 6071.50, median avg -1.01, 5-95% -1.97 .. -0.07; real avg -2.06 at percentile 3.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.90 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2495 / 1827 / 1750 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.57 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 3.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -16207.69 pips [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -5225.19 pips PF 0.77 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 70 trades open across a suspect gap; without them avg -2.43, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)