Sneaky Pivot on gold (spec snx_spec.md), UNCORRECTED clock. Run 2026-10-23T06:48:02.920Z; 500 control runs per variant. Net of $0.30 an ounce a round trip; 15-minute bars from 08:20 New York, exit by 13:30. data: 7067434 minutes 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York; 5336 usable days, 5297 trading days usable / trading days by year: 2004 50/26 | 2005 96/90 | 2006 156/151 | 2007 244/243 | 2008 256/256 | 2009 255/255 | 2010 243/243 | 2011 242/240 | 2012 244/243 | 2013 258/258 | 2014 258/258 | 2015 257/257 | 2016 258/258 | 2017 257/257 | 2018 258/258 | 2019 258/258 | 2020 259/259 | 2021 257/257 | 2022 258/258 | 2023 257/257 | 2024 259/259 | 2025 258/258 | 2026 198/198 bar 1 (08:21-08:35) reached the range low on 20.0% of days (25.4% within the near tolerance), the range high on 26.4% (32.7%); both on 5 from 08:36 to 13:30 the range low broke on 1782 days: price reached the swing low later that day on 55.1% (no swing low on 9), and came back to the range high on 3.5% from 08:36 to 13:30 the range high broke on 2107 days: price reached the swing high later that day on 51.7% (no swing high on 165), and came back to the range low on 3.5% === SX-STRICT-T1: bar 1 touches the range line; target bar 1's far end === DEV n= 178 net -$4.49 avg -$0.03 PF 0.97 t -0.12 VAL n= 231 net -$74.32 avg -$0.32 PF 0.72 t -1.86 HOLDOUT n= 204 net -$12.91 avg -$0.06 PF 0.98 t -0.11 ALL n=613 net -$91.72 avg -$0.15 an ounce a trade (gross +$0.15); in R: net -0.037, gross 0.067; PF 0.90 t -0.71; drawdown on closed trades -$212.88 winners 61.7% (95% 57.8-65.4%); ended by target 406 (66.2%), stop 190 (31.0%), 13:30 close 17 (2.8%); risk median $3.36, target distance median $1.84; sneaky on bar 3: 275; minutes held median 16; without the 10 best -$275.53 longs n=264 net -$123.06 | shorts n=349 net +$31.34 by year (n, net): 2005 5 -$1.34 | 2006 14 -$7.48 | 2007 25 +$14.97 | 2008 25 +$0.53 | 2009 25 +$2.44 | 2010 20 -$8.54 | 2011 26 -$6.53 | 2012 38 +$1.46 | 2013 37 -$43.45 | 2014 40 -$2.73 | 2015 28 -$7.77 | 2016 33 +$12.12 | 2017 36 -$4.81 | 2018 27 -$5.95 | 2019 30 -$21.73 | 2020 26 -$15.84 | 2021 31 +$8.17 | 2022 37 +$30.84 | 2023 25 -$13.09 | 2024 31 +$26.84 | 2025 29 +$9.01 | 2026 25 -$58.84 control (trades moved to other days, same minute, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 613.00, median avg -$0.31, 5-95% -$0.53 .. -$0.10; real avg -$0.15 at percentile 88.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.72 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 178 / 231 / 204 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.12 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 88.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$275.53 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$12.91 PF 0.98 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 151 trades touching a known hole; without them avg -$0.11, gates 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === SX-STRICT-T2: bar 1 touches the range line; target the opposite range line === DEV n= 419 net -$75.37 avg -$0.18 PF 0.92 t -0.66 VAL n= 416 net -$106.80 avg -$0.26 PF 0.86 t -1.11 HOLDOUT n= 395 net -$291.28 avg -$0.74 PF 0.87 t -0.96 ALL n=1230 net -$473.45 avg -$0.38 an ounce a trade (gross -$0.08); in R: net -0.025, gross 0.064; PF 0.88 t -1.40; drawdown on closed trades -$677.15 winners 39.3% (95% 36.6-42.0%); ended by target 74 (6.0%), 13:30 close 532 (43.3%), stop 624 (50.7%); risk median $4.03, target distance median $19.09; sneaky on bar 3: 404; minutes held median 148; without the 10 best -$983.35 longs n=542 net -$404.56 | shorts n=688 net -$68.89 by year (n, net): 2004 4 +$0.28 | 2005 13 -$10.23 | 2006 32 -$12.34 | 2007 58 -$5.24 | 2008 64 -$40.37 | 2009 71 +$21.69 | 2010 58 -$3.22 | 2011 52 -$55.24 | 2012 67 +$29.30 | 2013 61 -$158.59 | 2014 69 +$33.40 | 2015 47 -$18.75 | 2016 54 +$2.43 | 2017 72 +$33.28 | 2018 60 -$5.38 | 2019 53 +$6.81 | 2020 54 -$62.12 | 2021 53 +$29.96 | 2022 66 +$73.98 | 2023 52 +$12.60 | 2024 55 +$46.59 | 2025 61 +$64.54 | 2026 54 -$456.83 control (trades moved to other days, same minute, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 1230.00, median avg -$0.23, 5-95% -$0.53 .. +$0.05; real avg -$0.38 at percentile 19.80 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.86 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 419 / 416 / 395 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.66 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 19.80 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$983.35 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$291.28 PF 0.87 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 368 trades touching a known hole; without them avg -$0.35, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === SX-NEAR-T1: bar 1 within 10% of the average range; target bar 1's far end === DEV n= 224 net +$4.22 avg +$0.02 PF 1.02 t 0.10 VAL n= 289 net -$51.29 avg -$0.18 PF 0.83 t -1.19 HOLDOUT n= 265 net -$45.78 avg -$0.17 PF 0.93 t -0.36 ALL n=778 net -$92.85 avg -$0.12 an ounce a trade (gross +$0.18); in R: net -0.029, gross 0.077; PF 0.92 t -0.67; drawdown on closed trades -$224.50 winners 62.9% (95% 59.4-66.2%); ended by target 524 (67.4%), stop 234 (30.1%), 13:30 close 20 (2.6%); risk median $3.34, target distance median $1.73; sneaky on bar 3: 351; minutes held median 15; without the 10 best -$287.00 longs n=341 net -$145.21 | shorts n=437 net +$52.36 by year (n, net): 2004 1 +$0.99 | 2005 6 -$1.34 | 2006 22 -$1.34 | 2007 32 +$19.32 | 2008 27 +$1.51 | 2009 30 -$7.30 | 2010 24 -$4.17 | 2011 33 -$7.47 | 2012 49 +$4.02 | 2013 50 -$27.13 | 2014 41 -$1.97 | 2015 35 -$3.85 | 2016 41 +$14.78 | 2017 45 -$4.93 | 2018 37 -$3.99 | 2019 40 -$24.20 | 2020 33 -$29.77 | 2021 37 +$6.31 | 2022 49 +$24.08 | 2023 32 -$29.42 | 2024 39 +$22.20 | 2025 40 -$3.73 | 2026 35 -$35.45 control (trades moved to other days, same minute, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 778.00, median avg -$0.31, 5-95% -$0.50 .. -$0.12; real avg -$0.12 at percentile 95.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.83 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 224 / 289 / 265 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t 0.10 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 95.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$287.00 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$45.78 PF 0.93 VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates) rule 3: 195 trades touching a known hole; without them avg -$0.10, gates 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === SX-NEAR-T2: bar 1 within 10% of the average range; target the opposite range line === DEV n= 532 net -$27.71 avg -$0.05 PF 0.98 t -0.21 VAL n= 522 net -$90.67 avg -$0.17 PF 0.91 t -0.85 HOLDOUT n= 504 net -$424.12 avg -$0.84 PF 0.84 t -1.32 ALL n=1558 net -$542.50 avg -$0.35 an ounce a trade (gross -$0.05); in R: net -0.032, gross 0.059; PF 0.89 t -1.49; drawdown on closed trades -$751.16 winners 39.0% (95% 36.6-41.4%); ended by target 122 (7.8%), stop 790 (50.7%), 13:30 close 646 (41.5%); risk median $4.02, target distance median $17.64; sneaky on bar 3: 497; minutes held median 139; without the 10 best -$1057.66 longs n=688 net -$426.56 | shorts n=870 net -$115.94 by year (n, net): 2004 7 -$4.04 | 2005 15 -$11.23 | 2006 45 +$16.97 | 2007 78 -$10.25 | 2008 80 -$38.92 | 2009 84 +$23.28 | 2010 68 +$3.73 | 2011 69 -$61.67 | 2012 86 +$54.42 | 2013 78 -$132.52 | 2014 78 +$15.20 | 2015 61 -$20.18 | 2016 73 +$15.44 | 2017 88 +$39.17 | 2018 73 -$3.00 | 2019 71 -$4.78 | 2020 65 -$105.73 | 2021 71 +$38.38 | 2022 87 +$18.40 | 2023 69 +$34.40 | 2024 67 +$62.69 | 2025 76 +$51.14 | 2026 69 -$523.40 control (trades moved to other days, same minute, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 1558.00, median avg -$0.24, 5-95% -$0.49 .. +$0.01; real avg -$0.35 at percentile 23.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.91 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 532 / 522 / 504 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.21 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 23.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$1057.66 [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$424.12 PF 0.84 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 471 trades touching a known hole; without them avg -$0.37, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)