Standard Error Bands reversal on ES, 2-minute bars (spec seb_spec.md). Run 2026-11-07T14:45:06.929Z; 500 control runs per variant
data: 2378027 minutes 2020-01-01 18:01 .. 2026-09-25 16:59 New York; 1737 trading days; cost $30.76 a round trip, $50 a point

=== SEB-1: stop 1 x the distance to the mid, long and short ===
  DEV      n= 18956 net $-613,419  avg -32.36  PF 0.79 t -12.59
  VAL      n=  6218 net $-233,720  avg -37.59  PF 0.77 t -8.51
  HOLDOUT  n=  6971 net $-216,222  avg -31.02  PF 0.85 t -5.20
  ALL      n=32145 (18.51 a day); net $-1,063,360, avg $-33.08 (gross $-2.32, cost $30.76); PF 0.80 t -15.25; ended by {"target":15721,"stop":16082,"close":342}
  target distance: median 4.71 points; in R: gross -0.008 R, net -0.172 R a trade; cost 0.164 R a trade
  win rate 15860/32145 = 49.3% (95% Wilson 48.8-49.9%); the 10 best trades $44,417; drawdown on closed trades $-1,067,428
  longs n=16805 net $-504,794 gross $12,128 | shorts n=15340 net $-558,566 gross $-86,708
  April 2025: n=444 net $-18,851 avg $-42.46 | all other months: avg $-32.95
  by year (n, net): 2020 4852 -102,769 | 2021 4548 -176,357 | 2022 4675 -191,652 | 2023 4881 -142,641 | 2024 5053 -187,158 | 2025 4818 -154,156 | 2026 3318 -108,627
  control (each day's trades moved to another day, market entries, 500 runs, 6 s): mean trades 31,667, median avg $-30.95, 5-95% $-34.04 .. $-27.80; real avg $-33.08 at percentile 13.40
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.77
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 18956 / 6218 / 6971
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -12.59
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 13.40
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-1,107,777
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (already used): HOLDOUT net $-216,222 PF 0.85
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 0 trades open across a known hole; without them avg $-33.08, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== SEB-2: stop 2 x the distance to the mid, long and short ===
  DEV      n= 10965 net $-388,429  avg -35.42  PF 0.82 t -7.54
  VAL      n=  3573 net $-128,000  avg -35.82  PF 0.82 t -4.42
  HOLDOUT  n=  4072 net $-85,453  avg -20.99  PF 0.92 t -1.95
  ALL      n=18610 (10.71 a day); net $-601,881, avg $-32.34 (gross $-1.58, cost $30.76); PF 0.85 t -8.18; ended by {"target":11952,"stop":5937,"close":721}
  target distance: median 4.78 points; in R: gross -0.004 R, net -0.085 R a trade; cost 0.080 R a trade
  win rate 12115/18610 = 65.1% (95% Wilson 64.4-65.8%); the 10 best trades $40,662; drawdown on closed trades $-609,313
  longs n=9589 net $-271,273 gross $23,684 | shorts n=9021 net $-330,608 gross $-53,122
  April 2025: n=248 net $4,722 avg $19.04 | all other months: avg $-33.04
  by year (n, net): 2020 2841 -78,836 | 2021 2585 -111,111 | 2022 2711 -115,301 | 2023 2828 -83,181 | 2024 2958 -98,783 | 2025 2747 -99,827 | 2026 1940 -14,842
  control (each day's trades moved to another day, market entries, 500 runs, 4 s): mean trades 18,355, median avg $-32.40, 5-95% $-36.99 .. $-27.18; real avg $-32.34 at percentile 50.80
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.82
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 10965 / 3573 / 4072
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -7.54
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 50.80
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-642,543
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (already used): HOLDOUT net $-85,453 PF 0.92
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 1 trades open across a known hole; without them avg $-32.45, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)

=== SEB-1F: stop 1 x the distance to the mid, trend filter, long and short ===
  DEV      n= 13826 net $-449,368  avg -32.50  PF 0.80 t -10.33
  VAL      n=  4418 net $-165,294  avg -37.41  PF 0.78 t -6.87
  HOLDOUT  n=  5029 net $-105,234  avg -20.93  PF 0.90 t -3.01
  ALL      n=23273 (13.40 a day); net $-719,896, avg $-30.93 (gross $-0.17, cost $30.76); PF 0.82 t -11.85; ended by {"target":11445,"stop":11529,"close":299}
  target distance: median 4.96 points; in R: gross -0.001 R, net -0.156 R a trade; cost 0.155 R a trade
  win rate 11566/23273 = 49.7% (95% Wilson 49.1-50.3%); the 10 best trades $32,848; drawdown on closed trades $-720,733
  longs n=12082 net $-348,070 gross $23,572 | shorts n=11191 net $-371,826 gross $-27,591
  April 2025: n=275 net $-15,916 avg $-57.88 | all other months: avg $-30.61
  by year (n, net): 2020 3496 -107,591 | 2021 3268 -115,847 | 2022 3522 -140,628 | 2023 3540 -85,302 | 2024 3609 -128,497 | 2025 3420 -78,990 | 2026 2418 -63,041
  control (each day's trades moved to another day, market entries, 500 runs, 4 s): mean trades 22,924, median avg $-31.07, 5-95% $-34.83 .. $-27.55; real avg $-30.93 at percentile 51.60
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.78
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 13826 / 4418 / 5029
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -10.33
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 51.60
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: $-752,744
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (already used): HOLDOUT net $-105,234 PF 0.90
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 0 trades open across a known hole; without them avg $-30.93, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)