TheStrat on gold (XAUUSD) 60-minute bars (spec strat_gold_spec.md, frozen 2026-10-28; the ES rules of strat_spec.md). Run 2026-10-28T12:12:39.627Z; 500 control runs per variant. Dollars per ounce after $0.30 a round trip; stop order one cent beyond the trigger bar during the next bar, stop one cent beyond its other side, the method's first target, flat at 16:00 New York.
data: 7067434 minutes 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (clock corrected); 129857 sixty-minute bars; 4840 usable days
  bar numbers: 1 19.5%, 2U 36.1%, 2D 34.4%, 3 10.0%
  FTFC over the 09:31-16:00 minutes: all bullish 16.8%, all bearish 12.6%, mixed 70.6%

=== STRAT-212: 2-1-2, with FTFC ===
  setups and orders: setups 18832, orders reached 18373, refused: outside 09:31-15:00 or not a usable day 14727, both orders in one minute 29, refused: target not beyond the fill 33, refused: FTFC 2553, traded 1060, skipped (in a trade) 82
  DEV      n= 319 net -$48  avg -$0.15  PF 0.83 t -1.14
  VAL      n= 412 net -$134  avg -$0.32  PF 0.61 t -3.36
  HOLDOUT  n= 329 net -$38  avg -$0.11  PF 0.94 t -0.31
  ALL      n=1060 net -$219 avg -$0.21 an ounce a trade (gross +$0.09); in R: net -0.103, gross -0.005, cost 0.097; PF 0.82 t -1.65; drawdown on closed trades -$307
  winners 57.5% (95% 54.5-60.5%); ended by target 700 (66.0%), stop 216 (20.4%), session close 144 (13.6%)
  R median +$3.55 an ounce; target median 0.31 R, under 1R 89.4%; minutes held median 22; the 10 best +$163, without them -$382
  by kind: continuation n=656 avg -$0.22 | reversal n=404 avg -$0.19
  costs: before +$0.09 | $0.30 -$0.21 | x1.5 -$0.36 | x2.5 -$0.66 a trade
  longs n=585 net -$125 avg -$0.21 | shorts n=475 net -$94 avg -$0.20
  by year (n, net): 2006 4 +$2 | 2007 28 -$19 | 2008 62 -$11 | 2009 67 -$25 | 2010 56 -$32 | 2011 57 +$44 | 2012 45 -$6 | 2013 70 +$4 | 2014 73 -$44 | 2015 55 -$19 | 2016 51 -$5 | 2017 55 -$39 | 2018 47 -$17 | 2019 61 -$14 | 2020 49 -$19 | 2021 48 -$10 | 2022 49 -$9 | 2023 52 -$6 | 2024 47 -$4 | 2025 38 +$2 | 2026 46 +$8
  by New York hour of entry (n, avg): 09h 23 +$0.22 | 10h 130 +$0.16 | 11h 197 -$0.03 | 12h 287 -$0.25 | 13h 243 -$0.64 | 14h 180 -$0.06
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 1059.72, median avg -$0.31, 5-95% -$0.43 .. -$0.19; real avg -$0.21 at percentile 92.00
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.61
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 319 / 412 / 329
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.14
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 92.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$382
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$38 PF 0.94
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 27 trades touch a known hole window (the bar before the trigger to the exit); without them avg -$0.19, gates 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  uncorrected clock: n=1058 avg -$0.20, gates 1/6 (control percentile against the corrected-clock control) -> Buried
  ES (strat_out): n=259 avg -$30 a contract, net in R -0.032, gross in R 0.026, win 71.4%, target median 0.18 R, control percentile 50.60, 1/6 | gold: net in R -0.103, gross in R -0.005, win 57.5%, target median 0.31 R, percentile 92.00, 1/6

=== STRAT-312: 3-1-2, with FTFC ===
  setups and orders: setups 2953, orders reached 2812, refused: outside 09:31-15:00 or not a usable day 2244, refused: FTFC 368, traded 197, refused: target not beyond the fill 3, both orders in one minute 10, skipped (in a trade) 1
  DEV      n=  52 net -$23  avg -$0.44  PF 0.67 t -0.98
  VAL      n=  77 net +$23  avg +$0.30  PF 1.42 t 1.03
  HOLDOUT  n=  68 net -$93  avg -$1.37  PF 0.46 t -2.01
  ALL      n=197 net -$93 avg -$0.47 an ounce a trade (gross -$0.17); in R: net -0.068, gross 0.015, cost 0.083; PF 0.69 t -1.63; drawdown on closed trades -$108
  winners 64.5% (95% 57.6-70.8%); ended by stop 40 (20.3%), session close 33 (16.8%), target 124 (62.9%)
  R median +$4.38 an ounce; target median 0.34 R, under 1R 88.8%; minutes held median 32; the 10 best +$61, without them -$154
  by kind: after a 3 n=197 avg -$0.47
  costs: before -$0.17 | $0.30 -$0.47 | x1.5 -$0.62 | x2.5 -$0.92 a trade
  longs n=122 net -$47 avg -$0.38 | shorts n=75 net -$46 avg -$0.62
  by year (n, net): 2005 2 -$4 | 2007 2 -$2 | 2008 8 +$17 | 2009 9 -$6 | 2010 10 -$3 | 2011 9 -$8 | 2012 12 -$17 | 2013 11 +$24 | 2014 14 +$11 | 2015 16 -$18 | 2016 7 +$1 | 2017 11 -$7 | 2018 6 +$9 | 2019 12 +$3 | 2020 8 -$19 | 2021 11 -$16 | 2022 12 -$28 | 2023 10 -$9 | 2024 12 +$2 | 2025 11 +$1 | 2026 4 -$25
  by New York hour of entry (n, avg): 09h 3 +$0.95 | 10h 87 -$0.69 | 11h 35 -$0.33 | 12h 33 -$0.61 | 13h 18 -$0.07 | 14h 21 -$0.12
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 0 s): mean trades 196.99, median avg -$0.33, 5-95% -$0.67 .. -$0.01; real avg -$0.47 at percentile 26.20
  [PASS] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.42
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 52 / 77 / 68
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -0.98
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 26.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$154
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$93 PF 0.46
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)
  rule 3: 5 trades touch a known hole window (the bar before the trigger to the exit); without them avg -$0.49, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  uncorrected clock: n=197 avg -$0.48, gates 2/6 (control percentile against the corrected-clock control) -> Buried
  ES (strat_out): n=67 avg -$71 a contract, net in R -0.120, gross in R -0.070, win 62.7%, target median 0.31 R, control percentile 22.80, 0/6 | gold: net in R -0.068, gross in R 0.015, win 64.5%, target median 0.34 R, percentile 26.20, 2/6

=== STRAT-22: 2-2 reversal, with FTFC ===
  setups and orders: setups 91486, orders reached 34485, refused: outside 09:31-15:00 or not a usable day 28681, refused: FTFC 4441, traded 1358, skipped (in a trade) 1185, refused: target not beyond the fill 5
  DEV      n= 438 net -$213  avg -$0.49  PF 0.64 t -3.14
  VAL      n= 457 net -$139  avg -$0.30  PF 0.68 t -2.86
  HOLDOUT  n= 463 net -$20  avg -$0.04  PF 0.98 t -0.12
  ALL      n=1358 net -$372 avg -$0.27 an ounce a trade (gross +$0.03); in R: net -0.110, gross -0.032, cost 0.078; PF 0.82 t -2.01; drawdown on closed trades -$573
  winners 57.2% (95% 54.6-59.8%); ended by stop 268 (19.7%), target 737 (54.3%), session close 353 (26.0%)
  R median +$4.56 an ounce; target median 0.43 R, under 1R 85.1%; minutes held median 51; the 10 best +$226, without them -$597
  by kind: reversal n=1358 avg -$0.27
  costs: before +$0.03 | $0.30 -$0.27 | x1.5 -$0.42 | x2.5 -$0.72 a trade
  longs n=773 net -$127 avg -$0.16 | shorts n=585 net -$245 avg -$0.42
  by year (n, net): 2004 1 -$2 | 2006 5 +$5 | 2007 37 -$20 | 2008 82 -$14 | 2009 82 -$23 | 2010 80 -$12 | 2011 77 -$57 | 2012 74 -$92 | 2013 55 +$53 | 2014 69 -$24 | 2015 53 -$16 | 2016 65 -$19 | 2017 70 -$41 | 2018 66 -$63 | 2019 79 -$29 | 2020 72 -$83 | 2021 44 -$26 | 2022 75 -$44 | 2023 54 -$25 | 2024 66 +$15 | 2025 78 +$19 | 2026 74 +$124
  by New York hour of entry (n, avg): 09h 97 +$0.79 | 10h 296 -$0.25 | 11h 198 -$0.25 | 12h 212 -$0.75 | 13h 294 -$0.06 | 14h 261 -$0.57
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 1 s): mean trades 1357.59, median avg -$0.31, 5-95% -$0.45 .. -$0.18; real avg -$0.27 at percentile 68.20
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.68
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 438 / 457 / 463
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -3.14
  [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 68.20
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$597
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$20 PF 0.98
  VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates)
  rule 3: 43 trades touch a known hole window (the bar before the trigger to the exit); without them avg -$0.24, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  uncorrected clock: n=1359 avg -$0.28, gates 1/6 (control percentile against the corrected-clock control) -> Buried
  ES (strat_out): n=569 avg +$20 a contract, net in R -0.014, gross in R 0.031, win 68.5%, target median 0.31 R, control percentile 99.40, 2/6 | gold: net in R -0.110, gross in R -0.032, win 57.2%, target median 0.43 R, percentile 68.20, 1/6

=== STRAT-212-NOFTFC: 2-1-2, no FTFC filter ===
  setups and orders: setups 18832, orders reached 17910, refused: outside 09:31-15:00 or not a usable day 14642, both orders in one minute 29, refused: target not beyond the fill 62, traded 3206, skipped (in a trade) 328
  DEV      n= 994 net -$215  avg -$0.22  PF 0.80 t -2.47
  VAL      n=1185 net -$269  avg -$0.23  PF 0.72 t -3.82
  HOLDOUT  n=1027 net -$36  avg -$0.03  PF 0.98 t -0.16
  ALL      n=3206 net -$520 avg -$0.16 an ounce a trade (gross +$0.14); in R: net -0.077, gross 0.018, cost 0.095; PF 0.86 t -2.13; drawdown on closed trades -$639
  winners 58.1% (95% 56.4-59.8%); ended by target 2061 (64.3%), stop 634 (19.8%), session close 511 (15.9%)
  R median +$3.60 an ounce; target median 0.37 R, under 1R 85.7%; minutes held median 26; the 10 best +$321, without them -$841
  by kind: reversal n=1758 avg -$0.12 | continuation n=1448 avg -$0.22
  costs: before +$0.14 | $0.30 -$0.16 | x1.5 -$0.31 | x2.5 -$0.61 a trade
  longs n=1601 net -$309 avg -$0.19 | shorts n=1605 net -$211 avg -$0.13
  by year (n, net): 2005 1 -$0 | 2006 13 -$16 | 2007 103 -$53 | 2008 169 -$56 | 2009 196 -$32 | 2010 173 -$64 | 2011 171 +$28 | 2012 168 -$21 | 2013 188 -$15 | 2014 194 -$64 | 2015 167 -$13 | 2016 165 -$37 | 2017 159 -$70 | 2018 156 -$36 | 2019 156 -$34 | 2020 156 -$2 | 2021 145 -$62 | 2022 154 +$14 | 2023 152 -$77 | 2024 138 +$1 | 2025 148 +$37 | 2026 134 +$54
  by New York hour of entry (n, avg): 09h 72 -$0.31 | 10h 417 -$0.21 | 11h 589 -$0.11 | 12h 877 -$0.12 | 13h 766 -$0.16 | 14h 485 -$0.23
  control (entries moved to other usable days, same minute, same stop and target distances, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 3205.39, median avg -$0.31, 5-95% -$0.39 .. -$0.24; real avg -$0.16 at percentile 100.00
  [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.72
  [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 994 / 1185 / 1027
  [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -2.47
  [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 100.00
  [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -$841
  [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -$36 PF 0.98
  VERDICT Buried (2/6 gates)
  rule 3: 87 trades touch a known hole window (the bar before the trigger to the exit); without them avg -$0.15, gates 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)
  uncorrected clock: n=3213 avg -$0.17, gates 2/6 (control percentile against the corrected-clock control) -> Buried
  ES (strat_out): n=717 avg -$24 a contract, net in R -0.058, gross in R 0.001, win 67.4%, target median 0.26 R, control percentile 64.40, 3/6 | gold: net in R -0.077, gross in R 0.018, win 58.1%, target median 0.37 R, percentile 100.00, 2/6