Trend following vs mean reversion, 2026-10-22T15:42:52.093Z

Check 1. Labels
  [ok] 387 labels for 387 versions, 0 duplicates, every version labelled
  [ok] 97 gold versions, labels equal the gold guide's styles

Check 3. Gate 4 and control percentiles
  [ok] gate files found and equal to check_site's gates for 387 of 387 versions; control percentile printed for 387

All checks passed.

Versions by kind: {"trend":192,"breakout":92,"meanrev":88,"pattern":12,"time":3}

Questions 1-4, by family (cell-weighted)
  Trend following  cells  42 versions 284 | gross>0 77% | before 23% costs 31% positive 46% | gate4 22% | 4+ gates 8% | all6 3 | cost share 80% | trades/yr 164 | ctl pct 76.0 (284)
  Mean reversion   cells  12 versions  88 | gross>0 69% | before 31% costs 26% positive 43% | gate4 9% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 0 | cost share 149% | trades/yr 86 | ctl pct 66.4 (88)
  Pattern + time   cells   4 versions  15 | gross>0 81% | before 19% costs 46% positive 35% | gate4 44% | 4+ gates 13% | all6 0 | cost share 267% | trades/yr 275 | ctl pct 90.6 (15)
  shuffle (trend following - mean reversion): grossPos diff 8 pts p 0.456; survived diff 3 pts p 0.817; gate4 diff 13 pts p 0.178; g4plus diff -0 pts p 0.932

By kind
  Trend            cells  25 versions 192 | gross>0 78% | before 22% costs 38% positive 40% | gate4 13% | 4+ gates 7% | all6 1 | cost share 85% | trades/yr 167 | ctl pct 74.4 (192)
  Breakout         cells  18 versions  92 | gross>0 75% | before 25% costs 21% positive 54% | gate4 34% | 4+ gates 10% | all6 2 | cost share 75% | trades/yr 161 | ctl pct 79.2 (92)
  Mean reversion   cells  12 versions  88 | gross>0 69% | before 31% costs 26% positive 43% | gate4 9% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 0 | cost share 149% | trades/yr 86 | ctl pct 66.4 (88)
  Pattern          cells   3 versions  12 | gross>0 75% | before 25% costs 50% positive 25% | gate4 58% | 4+ gates 17% | all6 0 | cost share 470% | trades/yr 275 | ctl pct 96.9 (12)
  Time             cells   1 versions   3 | gross>0 100% | before 0% costs 33% positive 67% | gate4 0% | 4+ gates 0% | all6 0 | cost share 85% | trades/yr 251 | ctl pct 89.0 (3)

Question 5. Long-and-short versions only
  Trend following  cells  40 versions 179 | gross>0 72% | before 28% costs 34% positive 38% | gate4 23% | 4+ gates 8% | all6 1 | cost share 92% | trades/yr 211 | ctl pct 79.8 (179)
  Mean reversion   cells  11 versions  61 | gross>0 60% | before 40% costs 26% positive 33% | gate4 10% | 4+ gates 1% | all6 0 | cost share 186% | trades/yr 87 | ctl pct 68.2 (61)
  Pattern + time   cells   4 versions  11 | gross>0 75% | before 25% costs 38% positive 38% | gate4 44% | 4+ gates 13% | all6 0 | cost share 484% | trades/yr 385 | ctl pct 96.4 (11)
  shuffle: grossPos diff 13 pts p 0.338; survived diff 5 pts p 0.715; gate4 diff 14 pts p 0.178
  long-only versions:
  Trend following  cells  23 versions 105 | gross>0 83% | before 17% costs 27% positive 56% | gate4 18% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 2 | cost share 69% | trades/yr 126 | ctl pct 66.0 (105)
  Mean reversion   cells   6 versions  27 | gross>0 82% | before 18% costs 20% positive 63% | gate4 15% | 4+ gates 34% | all6 0 | cost share 64% | trades/yr 50 | ctl pct 63.4 (27)
  market index:
  Trend following  cells  19 versions 100 | gross>0 68% | before 32% costs 23% positive 45% | gate4 14% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 2 | cost share 47% | trades/yr 236 | ctl pct 55.3 (100)
  Mean reversion   cells   5 versions  17 | gross>0 75% | before 25% costs 25% positive 50% | gate4 15% | 4+ gates 15% | all6 0 | cost share 49% | trades/yr 123 | ctl pct 76.8 (17)
  market gold:
  Trend following  cells   8 versions  70 | gross>0 96% | before 4% costs 35% positive 60% | gate4 59% | 4+ gates 19% | all6 1 | cost share 96% | trades/yr 151 | ctl pct 98.6 (70)
  market fx:
  Trend following  cells  11 versions  95 | gross>0 72% | before 28% costs 38% positive 34% | gate4 11% | 4+ gates 0% | all6 0 | cost share 94% | trades/yr 130 | ctl pct 68.8 (95)
  market btc:
  Trend following  cells   5 versions  15 | gross>0 95% | before 5% costs 42% positive 53% | gate4 30% | 4+ gates 18% | all6 0 | cost share 61% | trades/yr 318 | ctl pct 92.6 (15)
  market spy:

Question 6. Without the 24 ambiguous versions
  Trend following  cells  40 versions 266 | gross>0 79% | before 21% costs 32% positive 48% | gate4 22% | 4+ gates 9% | all6 3 | cost share 80% | trades/yr 160 | ctl pct 79.9 (266)
  Mean reversion   cells  11 versions  82 | gross>0 66% | before 34% costs 19% positive 47% | gate4 10% | 4+ gates 10% | all6 0 | cost share 97% | trades/yr 84 | ctl pct 60.9 (82)
  Pattern + time   cells   4 versions  15 | gross>0 81% | before 19% costs 46% positive 35% | gate4 44% | 4+ gates 13% | all6 0 | cost share 267% | trades/yr 275 | ctl pct 90.6 (15)
  shuffle: grossPos diff 13 pts p 0.241; survived diff 1 pts p 0.959; gate4 diff 13 pts p 0.209; g4plus diff -1 pts p 0.877

Versions with all six gates: golden-cross-1-hour Gold GH-L-N (trend); noise-area-breakout-nq NA-NQ-NY-LS (breakout); noise-area-breakout-nq NA-NQ-NY-L (breakout)
Family study, independent second computation

IDENTICAL (609 numbers)