TTM Squeeze on XAUUSD 1-hour bars (spec sq_spec.md). Run 2026-10-14T13:30:39.334Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R (1.5 x ATR14 of the 1-hour bars at the signal bar). data: 7067434 one-minute bars, 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (minute close stamps) === SQ-LS-A: 1-hour bars, long and short, exit A (momentum fades two bars, or crosses zero) === squeeze length before the firing (bars): median 5, 90th percentile 20 DEV n= 1449 net -74.50 R avg -0.051 R PF 0.90 t -1.32 VAL n= 1340 net -20.63 R avg -0.015 R PF 0.97 t -0.34 HOLDOUT n= 1265 net 34.28 R avg 0.027 R PF 1.05 t 0.61 ALL n=4054 net -60.85 R avg -0.015 R (gross 0.056 R, cost 0.071 R a trade); $ per ounce 2.05; PF 0.97 t -0.60 win rate 1592/4054 = 39.3% (95% Wilson 37.8-40.8%); ended by {"zero cross":284,"momentum fades":3770}; hours held median 7.00 max 113.00; the 10 best trades 106.41 R worst open loss: -11.12 R; trades that were 3 R or more against the position at some point: 108 longs n=2064 net 60.96 R gross 205.04 R | shorts n=1990 net -121.81 R gross 20.12 R drawdown on closed trades -110.72 R; including open losses -111.52 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net -104.25 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -106.10 R by year (n, net R): 2004 92 -15.93 | 2005 136 -33.29 | 2006 156 -26.31 | 2007 181 -15.07 | 2008 178 14.08 | 2009 188 13.67 | 2010 170 -28.44 | 2011 163 0.96 | 2012 185 15.83 | 2013 201 40.82 | 2014 184 11.10 | 2015 202 -16.54 | 2016 207 -12.10 | 2017 192 -4.65 | 2018 170 -29.18 | 2019 184 -10.10 | 2020 196 49.14 | 2021 189 10.88 | 2022 191 -23.12 | 2023 200 -6.08 | 2024 183 27.31 | 2025 176 -25.03 | 2026 130 1.18 control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 5 s): mean trades 3175.92, median avg -0.061 R, 5-95% -0.088 .. -0.030 R; real avg -0.015 R at percentile 99.20 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.97 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1449 / 1340 / 1265 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -1.32 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 99.20 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -167.26 R [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 34.28 R PF 1.05 VERDICT Buried (3/6 gates) rule 3: 461 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.086 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === SQ-L-A: 1-hour bars, long only, exit A (momentum fades two bars, or crosses zero) === squeeze length before the firing (bars): median 5, 90th percentile 19 DEV n= 737 net 43.90 R avg 0.060 R PF 1.12 t 1.08 VAL n= 657 net -46.58 R avg -0.071 R PF 0.86 t -1.29 HOLDOUT n= 677 net 65.26 R avg 0.096 R PF 1.20 t 1.65 ALL n=2071 net 62.58 R avg 0.030 R (gross 0.100 R, cost 0.070 R a trade); $ per ounce 701.87; PF 1.06 t 0.93 win rate 845/2071 = 40.8% (95% Wilson 38.7-42.9%); ended by {"momentum fades":1935,"zero cross":136}; hours held median 7.00 max 113.00; the 10 best trades 69.29 R worst open loss: -7.73 R; trades that were 3 R or more against the position at some point: 48 longs n=2071 net 62.58 R gross 207.41 R | shorts n=0 net 0.00 R gross 0.00 R drawdown on closed trades -61.66 R; including open losses -64.01 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 38.96 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -82.56 R by year (n, net R): 2004 41 -1.44 | 2005 72 -21.40 | 2006 76 -2.87 | 2007 91 7.75 | 2008 93 8.14 | 2009 98 26.03 | 2010 93 4.70 | 2011 89 9.41 | 2012 84 13.58 | 2013 96 -6.92 | 2014 83 -8.17 | 2015 88 -5.59 | 2016 104 4.37 | 2017 102 -3.87 | 2018 90 -27.67 | 2019 94 1.27 | 2020 114 47.71 | 2021 98 8.79 | 2022 94 -18.74 | 2023 103 -3.65 | 2024 104 25.06 | 2025 96 2.65 | 2026 68 3.42 control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 1657.68, median avg -0.041 R, 5-95% -0.083 .. 0.001 R; real avg 0.030 R at percentile 99.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.86 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 737 / 657 / 677 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 1.08 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 99.40 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -6.71 R [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 65.26 R PF 1.20 VERDICT Buried (3/6 gates) rule 3: 232 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.043 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === SQ-LS-B: 1-hour bars, long and short, exit B (momentum crosses zero) === squeeze length before the firing (bars): median 7, 90th percentile 22 DEV n= 1126 net 146.34 R avg 0.130 R PF 1.17 t 1.80 VAL n= 1033 net 48.79 R avg 0.047 R PF 1.06 t 0.54 HOLDOUT n= 987 net 196.87 R avg 0.199 R PF 1.26 t 2.34 ALL n=3146 net 392.00 R avg 0.125 R (gross 0.196 R, cost 0.071 R a trade); $ per ounce 2680.57; PF 1.16 t 2.66 win rate 1260/3146 = 40.1% (95% Wilson 38.4-41.8%); ended by {"zero cross":3146}; hours held median 20.00 max 285.00; the 10 best trades 208.83 R worst open loss: -11.31 R; trades that were 3 R or more against the position at some point: 231 longs n=1610 net 417.68 R gross 531.45 R | shorts n=1536 net -25.68 R gross 84.76 R drawdown on closed trades -103.36 R; including open losses -104.41 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 300.16 R, scenario B (today's swap) net 276.03 R by year (n, net R): 2004 75 -11.08 | 2005 114 16.60 | 2006 129 -3.26 | 2007 138 4.67 | 2008 130 42.08 | 2009 140 33.00 | 2010 133 -25.01 | 2011 125 52.91 | 2012 142 36.44 | 2013 155 79.79 | 2014 146 46.36 | 2015 150 -17.89 | 2016 158 -8.30 | 2017 143 6.02 | 2018 135 -23.61 | 2019 146 -33.58 | 2020 147 72.18 | 2021 147 18.95 | 2022 150 -3.82 | 2023 154 31.16 | 2024 146 61.18 | 2025 141 -9.74 | 2026 102 26.97 control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 5 s): mean trades 2332.02, median avg -0.014 R, 5-95% -0.066 .. 0.034 R; real avg 0.125 R at percentile 100.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.06 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1126 / 1033 / 987 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 1.80 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 100.00 [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 183.17 R [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 196.87 R PF 1.26 VERDICT Buried (4/6 gates) rule 3: 664 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.059 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === SQ-L-B: 1-hour bars, long only, exit B (momentum crosses zero) === squeeze length before the firing (bars): median 6, 90th percentile 20 DEV n= 591 net 194.22 R avg 0.329 R PF 1.47 t 3.15 VAL n= 539 net 6.88 R avg 0.013 R PF 1.02 t 0.12 HOLDOUT n= 540 net 220.02 R avg 0.407 R PF 1.56 t 3.21 ALL n=1670 net 421.12 R avg 0.252 R (gross 0.323 R, cost 0.071 R a trade); $ per ounce 2805.65; PF 1.34 t 3.85 win rate 721/1670 = 43.2% (95% Wilson 40.8-45.6%); ended by {"zero cross":1670}; hours held median 22.00 max 285.00; the 10 best trades 173.71 R worst open loss: -11.31 R; trades that were 3 R or more against the position at some point: 129 longs n=1670 net 421.12 R gross 539.21 R | shorts n=0 net 0.00 R gross 0.00 R drawdown on closed trades -44.63 R; including open losses -45.04 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 367.25 R, scenario B (today's swap) net 120.96 R by year (n, net R): 2004 37 -9.56 | 2005 60 17.95 | 2006 66 18.96 | 2007 69 30.05 | 2008 77 10.57 | 2009 69 59.52 | 2010 76 7.03 | 2011 70 37.81 | 2012 67 21.89 | 2013 79 -1.16 | 2014 68 15.42 | 2015 71 -11.14 | 2016 82 4.81 | 2017 87 1.92 | 2018 74 -13.28 | 2019 78 10.32 | 2020 83 84.30 | 2021 78 11.21 | 2022 78 -3.66 | 2023 81 22.08 | 2024 85 54.07 | 2025 77 37.75 | 2026 58 14.26 control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 1314.29, median avg 0.038 R, 5-95% -0.045 .. 0.110 R; real avg 0.252 R at percentile 100.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.02 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 591 / 539 / 540 [PASS] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 3.15 [PASS] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 100.00 [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 247.41 R [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 220.02 R PF 1.56 VERDICT Buried (5/6 gates) rule 3: 367 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.016 R, gates passed 2/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 384 -> 4109.91