VWAP deviation bands on gold (spec gvb_spec.md), gx clock. Run 2026-11-02T09:06:59.746Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R (entry to stop) and $ per ounce, after $0.30 an ounce a round trip; 5-minute bars, tick volume. data: 7067434 minutes 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York === GVB-LD: London session, 08:00-16:30 London === sessions used 4946; by year (kept/weekdays): 2004 4/146 | 2005 0/260 | 2006 9/260 | 2007 158/261 | 2008 248/262 | 2009 254/261 | 2010 242/261 | 2011 240/260 | 2012 243/261 | 2013 258/261 | 2014 258/261 | 2015 257/261 | 2016 258/261 | 2017 257/260 | 2018 258/261 | 2019 258/261 | 2020 259/262 | 2021 257/261 | 2022 258/260 | 2023 257/260 | 2024 259/262 | 2025 256/261 | 2026 198/200 closes in the signal zone (while flat, after the warm-up): 56273; beyond 3 SD: 8903; direction already used: 48173; entries refused at or beyond the stop: 127 DEV n= 2313 net -9551.4 R avg -4.129 R PF 0.16 t -1.93 VAL n= 2859 net -4173.3 R avg -1.460 R PF 0.34 t -11.21 HOLDOUT n= 2801 net -1995.3 R avg -0.712 R PF 0.51 t -11.72 ALL n=7973 net -15720.0 R avg -1.972 R a trade (gross -0.063 R, mean cost 1.909 R); PF 0.28 t -3.16; in dollars -$0.25/oz a trade (gross +$0.05), total -$2023.38/oz; drawdown on closed trades -15728.6 R winners 21.5% (95% 20.6-22.4%); ended by vwap 1642 (20.6%), stop 6215 (78.0%), session close 116 (1.5%); stop median $0.51; minutes held median 5; without the 10 best -16230.7 R longs n=4010 avg -1.246 R (-$0.24/oz), gross +0.101 R, winners 20.8% | shorts n=3963 avg -2.706 R (-$0.27/oz), gross -0.229 R, winners 22.1% by stop size: under $1 n=6067 avg -2.536 R (-$0.27/oz), gross -0.086 R, winners 19.6% | $1 to $2 n=1299 avg -0.251 R (-$0.33/oz), gross -0.025 R, winners 25.3% | $2 to $5 n=536 avg -0.061 R (-$0.10/oz), gross +0.051 R, winners 30.6% | over $5 n=71 avg +0.349 R (+$1.22/oz), gross +0.390 R, winners 42.3% trend sessions n=3232 avg -3.362 R (-$0.33/oz), gross -0.507 R, winners 18.7% | consolidation sessions n=4741 avg -1.024 R (-$0.20/oz), gross +0.240 R, winners 23.4% 2004-2007 n=263 avg -7.282 R (-$0.36/oz), gross -1.225 R, winners 20.2% (thin data) cost scenarios: $0.30 -1.972 R | $0.45 -2.926 R (-$0.40/oz) | $0.75 -4.835 R (-$0.70/oz) by year (n, net R, $/oz): 2004 8 -9.8 R -$2.18 | 2006 14 -23.0 R -$4.28 | 2007 241 -1882.3 R -$87.36 | 2008 416 -5158.3 R -$97.36 | 2009 428 -776.1 R -$108.55 | 2010 406 -744.1 R -$77.65 | 2011 397 -493.2 R -$64.84 | 2012 403 -464.5 R -$113.37 | 2013 407 -310.6 R -$120.68 | 2014 422 -582.2 R -$54.09 | 2015 407 -475.2 R -$73.28 | 2016 425 -630.9 R -$78.08 | 2017 401 -910.5 R -$132.46 | 2018 388 -622.5 R -$98.75 | 2019 409 -641.5 R -$159.77 | 2020 407 -308.6 R -$97.73 | 2021 424 -300.0 R -$145.45 | 2022 401 -250.2 R -$128.98 | 2023 418 -373.1 R -$107.62 | 2024 429 -406.1 R -$193.69 | 2025 402 -270.7 R -$143.74 | 2026 320 -86.6 R +$66.53 by New York hour of entry (n, avg R): 03h 2533 -3.717 | 04h 1983 -1.932 | 05h 965 -0.812 | 06h 632 -0.638 | 07h 556 -0.802 | 08h 635 -0.780 | 09h 374 -0.511 | 10h 225 -0.580 | 11h 67 -0.313 | 12h 3 -0.898 control (trades moved to other sessions, same time after the open, stop scaled in SD, 500 runs, 5 s): mean trades 7972.32, median avg -1.198 R, 5-95% -1.570 R .. -0.976 R; real avg -1.972 R at percentile 0.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.34 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 2313 / 2859 / 2801 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -1.93 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 0.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -16230.7 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -1995.3 R PF 0.51 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 11 trades touching a gap of more than 30 minutes; without them avg -1.973 R, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === GVB-NY: New York session, 09:30-16:00 New York === sessions used 4757; by year (kept/weekdays): 2004 2/146 | 2005 1/260 | 2006 9/260 | 2007 113/261 | 2008 249/262 | 2009 245/261 | 2010 235/261 | 2011 236/260 | 2012 234/261 | 2013 249/261 | 2014 249/261 | 2015 248/261 | 2016 251/261 | 2017 250/260 | 2018 249/261 | 2019 249/261 | 2020 250/262 | 2021 248/261 | 2022 250/260 | 2023 248/260 | 2024 251/262 | 2025 249/261 | 2026 192/200 closes in the signal zone (while flat, after the warm-up): 27587; beyond 3 SD: 3367; direction already used: 21758; entries refused at or beyond the stop: 67 DEV n= 1684 net -1267.8 R avg -0.753 R PF 0.53 t -5.09 VAL n= 2108 net -2640.5 R avg -1.253 R PF 0.38 t -5.33 HOLDOUT n= 1970 net -913.1 R avg -0.463 R PF 0.63 t -4.60 ALL n=5762 net -4821.3 R avg -0.837 R a trade (gross +0.151 R, mean cost 0.988 R); PF 0.49 t -8.18; in dollars -$0.26/oz a trade (gross +$0.04), total -$1507.51/oz; drawdown on closed trades -4867.1 R winners 22.7% (95% 21.6-23.8%); ended by stop 4384 (76.1%), vwap 1173 (20.4%), session close 205 (3.6%); stop median $0.75; minutes held median 5; without the 10 best -5455.8 R longs n=2942 avg -0.610 R (-$0.24/oz), gross +0.260 R, winners 22.9% | shorts n=2820 avg -1.073 R (-$0.29/oz), gross +0.037 R, winners 22.4% by stop size: under $1 n=3626 avg -1.226 R (-$0.25/oz), gross +0.239 R, winners 19.3% | $1 to $2 n=1356 avg -0.195 R (-$0.25/oz), gross +0.029 R, winners 27.5% | $2 to $5 n=656 avg -0.147 R (-$0.31/oz), gross -0.037 R, winners 29.7% | over $5 n=124 avg -0.128 R (-$0.46/oz), gross -0.086 R, winners 31.5% trend sessions n=2207 avg -0.931 R (-$0.58/oz), gross -0.047 R, winners 17.7% | consolidation sessions n=3555 avg -0.778 R (-$0.06/oz), gross +0.274 R, winners 25.8% 2004-2007 n=159 avg -0.600 R (-$0.11/oz), gross +0.494 R, winners 27.7% (thin data) cost scenarios: $0.30 -0.837 R | $0.45 -1.331 R (-$0.41/oz) | $0.75 -2.318 R (-$0.71/oz) by year (n, net R, $/oz): 2004 3 +0.6 R -$0.06 | 2005 2 +3.2 R +$0.67 | 2006 10 -12.7 R -$4.90 | 2007 144 -86.4 R -$13.94 | 2008 301 -331.0 R -$65.29 | 2009 323 -284.1 R -$64.95 | 2010 317 -216.3 R -$22.51 | 2011 310 -91.9 R -$22.38 | 2012 274 -249.0 R -$120.49 | 2013 299 -415.8 R -$82.56 | 2014 292 -178.7 R -$87.19 | 2015 276 -264.3 R -$51.91 | 2016 308 -226.5 R -$83.60 | 2017 304 -369.5 R -$111.01 | 2018 325 -430.8 R -$77.61 | 2019 304 -754.9 R -$116.04 | 2020 300 -207.2 R -$68.99 | 2021 259 -174.8 R -$67.40 | 2022 300 -76.8 R -$40.68 | 2023 271 -192.5 R -$142.64 | 2024 312 -97.9 R -$113.31 | 2025 285 -199.3 R -$122.23 | 2026 243 +35.5 R -$28.48 by New York hour of entry (n, avg R): 10h 3616 -1.024 | 11h 983 -0.564 | 12h 478 -0.493 | 13h 333 -0.542 | 14h 218 -0.146 | 15h 134 -0.853 control (trades moved to other sessions, same time after the open, stop scaled in SD, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 5760.88, median avg -0.797 R, 5-95% -0.960 R .. -0.493 R; real avg -0.837 R at percentile 31.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.38 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1684 / 2108 / 1970 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.5 on development: DEV t -5.09 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 31.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -5455.8 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -913.1 R PF 0.63 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 2 trades touching a gap of more than 30 minutes; without them avg -0.836 R, gates 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged)