WaveTrend (LazyBear 10/21/4, zones +/-53) on XAUUSD 1-hour bars (spec wt_spec.md). Run 2026-10-16T06:07:02.065Z; 500 control runs per variant. Results in R (1.5 x ATR14 of the 1-hour bars at the signal bar). data: 7067434 one-minute bars, 2004-06-11 00:19 .. 2026-10-07 16:57 New York (minute close stamps) 1-hour bars: 129857; signals counted from bar 500 (2004-07-14 23:00) === WT-LS-X: 1-hour bars, long and short, exit X (the next opposite cross) === DEV n= 1311 net -259.06 R avg -0.198 R PF 0.67 t -5.25 VAL n= 1022 net -105.71 R avg -0.103 R PF 0.82 t -2.08 HOLDOUT n= 1108 net -167.93 R avg -0.152 R PF 0.73 t -3.64 ALL n=3441 net -532.70 R avg -0.155 R (gross -0.090 R, cost 0.065 R a trade); $ per ounce -3012.92; PF 0.73 t -6.30 win rate 1121/3441 = 32.6% (95% Wilson 31.0-34.2%); ended by {"opposite cross":3440,"end of data":1}; flips 85; hours held median 10.92 max 110.00; the 10 best trades 86.37 R worst open loss: -19.24 R; trades that were 3 R or more against the position at some point: 58 longs n=1524 net -108.52 R gross -14.57 R | shorts n=1917 net -424.18 R gross -294.83 R drawdown on closed trades -532.88 R; including open losses -533.41 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net -577.81 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -554.93 R by year (n, net R): 2004 61 -16.47 | 2005 157 -48.90 | 2006 149 -18.50 | 2007 161 -34.20 | 2008 149 -29.12 | 2009 159 -22.45 | 2010 149 -47.86 | 2011 166 -32.84 | 2012 160 -8.71 | 2013 144 -24.20 | 2014 139 5.68 | 2015 139 -9.99 | 2016 147 -43.69 | 2017 163 -26.30 | 2018 136 -4.04 | 2019 154 -3.17 | 2020 177 -49.08 | 2021 154 -34.91 | 2022 158 18.79 | 2023 145 -29.68 | 2024 154 -22.09 | 2025 189 -36.41 | 2026 131 -14.55 control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 5 s): mean trades 2229.14, median avg -0.082 R, 5-95% -0.135 .. -0.033 R; real avg -0.155 R at percentile 0.80 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.82 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 1311 / 1022 / 1108 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -5.25 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 0.80 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -619.07 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -167.93 R PF 0.73 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 573 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.220 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === WT-L-X: 1-hour bars, long only, exit X (the next opposite cross) === DEV n= 543 net -42.38 R avg -0.078 R PF 0.86 t -1.27 VAL n= 532 net -52.41 R avg -0.099 R PF 0.83 t -1.40 HOLDOUT n= 449 net -13.72 R avg -0.031 R PF 0.94 t -0.48 ALL n=1524 net -108.52 R avg -0.071 R (gross -0.010 R, cost 0.062 R a trade); $ per ounce -857.07; PF 0.87 t -1.88 win rate 550/1524 = 36.1% (95% Wilson 33.7-38.5%); ended by {"opposite cross":1523,"end of data":1}; flips 0; hours held median 11.00 max 100.08; the 10 best trades 75.39 R worst open loss: -19.24 R; trades that were 3 R or more against the position at some point: 23 longs n=1524 net -108.52 R gross -14.57 R | shorts n=0 net 0.00 R gross 0.00 R drawdown on closed trades -124.67 R; including open losses -124.90 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net -127.63 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -242.39 R by year (n, net R): 2004 22 -3.13 | 2005 67 -21.26 | 2006 61 1.62 | 2007 65 0.91 | 2008 67 -14.96 | 2009 61 0.65 | 2010 53 -6.43 | 2011 64 -3.11 | 2012 83 3.32 | 2013 88 -37.62 | 2014 77 9.90 | 2015 89 -11.99 | 2016 73 -18.67 | 2017 72 -7.11 | 2018 72 -4.74 | 2019 61 17.81 | 2020 60 -10.57 | 2021 71 -10.60 | 2022 87 10.52 | 2023 62 -7.44 | 2024 42 3.35 | 2025 54 4.73 | 2026 73 -3.72 control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 2 s): mean trades 1011.34, median avg -0.024 R, 5-95% -0.112 .. 0.058 R; real avg -0.071 R at percentile 20.60 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.83 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 543 / 532 / 449 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -1.27 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 20.60 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -183.91 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -13.72 R PF 0.94 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 253 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg -0.157 R, gates passed 1/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === WT-LS-R: 1-hour bars, long and short, exit R (the next opposite signal) === DEV n= 390 net -139.68 R avg -0.358 R PF 0.83 t -1.16 VAL n= 303 net -10.37 R avg -0.034 R PF 0.98 t -0.10 HOLDOUT n= 293 net -207.32 R avg -0.708 R PF 0.70 t -1.90 ALL n=986 net -357.37 R avg -0.362 R (gross -0.297 R, cost 0.066 R a trade); $ per ounce -1018.53; PF 0.83 t -1.86 win rate 590/986 = 59.8% (95% Wilson 56.7-62.9%); ended by {"opposite signal":985,"end of data":1}; flips 985; hours held median 150.00 max 1272.00; the 10 best trades 99.77 R worst open loss: -74.45 R; trades that were 3 R or more against the position at some point: 513 longs n=493 net 169.07 R gross 200.35 R | shorts n=493 net -526.44 R gross -492.75 R drawdown on closed trades -393.34 R; including open losses -424.77 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net -526.58 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -408.78 R by year (n, net R): 2004 20 1.88 | 2005 43 -70.17 | 2006 40 -5.13 | 2007 56 -22.65 | 2008 48 49.02 | 2009 42 -47.55 | 2010 36 -15.36 | 2011 47 -51.86 | 2012 58 22.15 | 2013 40 -54.11 | 2014 48 31.52 | 2015 44 24.39 | 2016 33 -75.86 | 2017 46 26.37 | 2018 48 41.07 | 2019 44 -3.76 | 2020 48 -46.10 | 2021 50 6.93 | 2022 40 -29.69 | 2023 40 -29.93 | 2024 35 -50.19 | 2025 42 -59.40 | 2026 38 1.05 control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 5 s): mean trades 521.25, median avg -0.232 R, 5-95% -0.528 .. 0.084 R; real avg -0.362 R at percentile 26.00 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 0.98 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 390 / 303 / 293 [FAIL] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t -1.16 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 26.00 [FAIL] 5 positive without top-10 trades: -457.14 R [FAIL] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net -207.32 R PF 0.70 VERDICT Buried (1/6 gates) rule 3: 394 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.119 R, gates passed 4/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) === WT-L-R: 1-hour bars, long only, exit R (the next opposite signal) === DEV n= 195 net 136.43 R avg 0.700 R PF 1.55 t 2.41 VAL n= 151 net 3.60 R avg 0.024 R PF 1.01 t 0.05 HOLDOUT n= 147 net 29.05 R avg 0.198 R PF 1.12 t 0.50 ALL n=493 net 169.07 R avg 0.343 R (gross 0.406 R, cost 0.063 R a trade); $ per ounce 1342.64; PF 1.21 t 1.50 win rate 314/493 = 63.7% (95% Wilson 59.4-67.8%); ended by {"opposite signal":492,"end of data":1}; flips 0; hours held median 138.92 max 1272.00; the 10 best trades 94.31 R worst open loss: -37.09 R; trades that were 3 R or more against the position at some point: 235 longs n=493 net 169.07 R gross 200.35 R | shorts n=0 net 0.00 R gross 0.00 R drawdown on closed trades -90.38 R; including open losses -94.57 R; financing: scenario A (3% a year) net 96.04 R, scenario B (today's swap) net -282.71 R by year (n, net R): 2004 10 3.20 | 2005 21 8.10 | 2006 20 22.73 | 2007 28 33.28 | 2008 24 24.54 | 2009 21 10.27 | 2010 18 19.87 | 2011 24 0.19 | 2012 29 14.24 | 2013 20 -67.79 | 2014 24 12.72 | 2015 22 -0.80 | 2016 16 -25.28 | 2017 23 34.26 | 2018 24 19.79 | 2019 22 30.70 | 2020 24 9.38 | 2021 25 0.19 | 2022 20 -16.70 | 2023 20 -7.85 | 2024 18 11.80 | 2025 21 40.13 | 2026 19 -7.90 control (entries moved to other days, 500 runs, 3 s): mean trades 354.78, median avg 0.276 R, 5-95% -0.018 .. 0.622 R; real avg 0.343 R at percentile 63.40 [FAIL] 1 PF >= 1.2 in validation: VAL PF 1.01 [PASS] 2 >= 50 trades in each period: 195 / 151 / 147 [PASS] 3 t >= 2.0 on development: DEV t 2.41 [FAIL] 4 above 95th pct of the control: percentile 63.40 [PASS] 5 positive without top-10 trades: 74.76 R [PASS] 6 holdout net positive (flagged used): HOLDOUT net 29.05 R PF 1.12 VERDICT Buried (4/6 gates) rule 3: 195 trades are open across a suspect or unclear gap; without them avg 0.694 R, gates passed 4/6 -> Buried (verdict unchanged) buy and hold over the same data, for reference: 384 -> 4109.91