Forex-year study (spec fy_spec.md). Run 2026-10-14T19:30:29.594Z; 1000 simulated traders per year per cell, years 2005-2025; $10000 at the start of every year; EUR/USD 1-minute bid prices. year 2005: 371750 minutes, 260 trading days (9 s) year 2006: 359747 minutes, 260 trading days (15 s) year 2007: 305002 minutes, 260 trading days (22 s) year 2008: 343079 minutes, 260 trading days (28 s) year 2009: 364416 minutes, 260 trading days (35 s) year 2010: 367182 minutes, 260 trading days (41 s) year 2011: 369007 minutes, 260 trading days (48 s) year 2012: 369866 minutes, 260 trading days (54 s) year 2013: 368601 minutes, 260 trading days (61 s) year 2014: 367322 minutes, 260 trading days (68 s) year 2015: 370874 minutes, 259 trading days (74 s) year 2016: 373139 minutes, 260 trading days (80 s) year 2017: 370343 minutes, 260 trading days (86 s) year 2018: 371922 minutes, 261 trading days (93 s) year 2019: 371463 minutes, 261 trading days (99 s) year 2020: 373012 minutes, 261 trading days (106 s) year 2021: 373156 minutes, 260 trading days (112 s) year 2022: 372838 minutes, 260 trading days (118 s) year 2023: 371342 minutes, 260 trading days (124 s) year 2024: 373204 minutes, 262 trading days (131 s) year 2025: 370627 minutes, 261 trading days (137 s) cell = style | risk per trade | cost in pips | leverage limit share of trader-years: ended with a loss / lost 50% or more / lost 90% or more or could not trade; median and mean return; 10th and 90th percentile; trades a year; costs and swap as a share of the starting $10,000; trades whose size the leverage limit cut scalper|0.01|1|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.5% mean -99.5% | p10 -99.5% p90 -99.5% | 2799 trades | costs 97.2% swap -1.1% | capped 1.4% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.01|1|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.5% mean -99.5% | p10 -99.5% p90 -99.5% | 2793 trades | costs 97.1% swap -1.1% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.01|2|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.5% mean -99.5% | p10 -99.5% p90 -99.5% | 1434 trades | costs 98.4% swap -0.5% | capped 0.4% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.01|2|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.5% mean -99.5% | p10 -99.5% p90 -99.5% | 1432 trades | costs 98.2% swap -0.5% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.05|1|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.6% mean -99.6% | p10 -99.6% p90 -99.5% | 2347 trades | costs 97.1% swap -1.1% | capped 100.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.05|1|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.9% mean -99.9% | p10 -99.9% p90 -99.9% | 650 trades | costs 97.1% swap -0.9% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.05|2|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.6% mean -99.6% | p10 -99.6% p90 -99.5% | 1202 trades | costs 98.4% swap -0.5% | capped 100.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.05|2|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.9% mean -99.9% | p10 -99.9% p90 -99.9% | 346 trades | costs 98.9% swap -0.4% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.1|1|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.6% mean -99.6% | p10 -99.6% p90 -99.5% | 2349 trades | costs 97.3% swap -1.0% | capped 100.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.1|1|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -100.0% mean -100.0% | p10 -100.0% p90 -100.0% | 314 trades | costs 99.2% swap -0.9% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.1|2|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.6% mean -99.6% | p10 -99.6% p90 -99.5% | 1202 trades | costs 98.5% swap -0.5% | capped 100.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.1|2|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -100.0% mean -100.0% | p10 -100.0% p90 -100.0% | 174 trades | costs 99.6% swap -0.4% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.01|1|30 loss 98.5% | -50% 41.6% | -90% 0.0% | median -46.7% mean -44.5% | p10 -64.5% p90 -22.2% | 833 trades | costs 41.2% swap -2.8% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.01|1|500 loss 98.6% | -50% 40.4% | -90% 0.0% | median -46.2% mean -44.3% | p10 -64.3% p90 -22.1% | 833 trades | costs 41.2% swap -2.8% | capped 0.0% | -0.00 pips/trade before costs day|0.01|2|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 92.5% | -90% 0.1% | median -68.6% mean -67.3% | p10 -80.7% p90 -52.4% | 833 trades | costs 64.8% swap -2.2% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.01|2|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 92.2% | -90% 0.1% | median -68.6% mean -67.3% | p10 -80.6% p90 -52.2% | 833 trades | costs 64.8% swap -2.2% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.05|1|30 loss 99.4% | -50% 97.0% | -90% 65.4% | median -93.6% mean -88.2% | p10 -98.4% p90 -73.6% | 833 trades | costs 82.0% swap -5.7% | capped 99.6% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.05|1|500 loss 99.7% | -50% 98.5% | -90% 86.3% | median -98.1% mean -94.2% | p10 -99.6% p90 -86.8% | 821 trades | costs 87.2% swap -6.1% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.05|2|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 98.0% | median -99.0% mean -98.1% | p10 -99.6% p90 -95.8% | 814 trades | costs 94.2% swap -3.3% | capped 96.7% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.05|2|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 99.7% | median -99.7% mean -99.3% | p10 -99.7% p90 -98.7% | 713 trades | costs 95.2% swap -3.3% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.1|1|30 loss 99.5% | -50% 97.0% | -90% 65.5% | median -93.6% mean -88.5% | p10 -98.4% p90 -74.1% | 833 trades | costs 81.6% swap -5.7% | capped 100.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.1|1|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 99.9% | -90% 99.5% | median -99.9% mean -99.5% | p10 -99.9% p90 -99.7% | 552 trades | costs 90.9% swap -6.3% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.1|2|30 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 98.0% | median -99.0% mean -98.1% | p10 -99.6% p90 -95.9% | 814 trades | costs 94.3% swap -3.3% | capped 100.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs day|0.1|2|500 loss 100.0% | -50% 100.0% | -90% 100.0% | median -99.9% mean -99.9% | p10 -99.9% p90 -99.9% | 373 trades | costs 96.7% swap -3.2% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs swing|0.01|1|30 loss 65.6% | -50% 0.0% | -90% 0.0% | median -4.5% mean -3.9% | p10 -17.9% p90 10.8% | 143 trades | costs 2.7% swap -1.0% | capped 0.0% | -0.05 pips/trade before costs swing|0.01|1|500 loss 65.6% | -50% 0.0% | -90% 0.0% | median -4.5% mean -3.8% | p10 -17.7% p90 10.9% | 143 trades | costs 2.7% swap -1.0% | capped 0.0% | -0.02 pips/trade before costs swing|0.01|2|30 loss 73.7% | -50% 0.0% | -90% 0.0% | median -7.1% mean -6.5% | p10 -20.2% p90 7.8% | 143 trades | costs 5.4% swap -1.0% | capped 0.0% | -0.04 pips/trade before costs swing|0.01|2|500 loss 73.6% | -50% 0.0% | -90% 0.0% | median -7.0% mean -6.4% | p10 -20.1% p90 7.9% | 143 trades | costs 5.4% swap -1.0% | capped 0.0% | -0.02 pips/trade before costs swing|0.05|1|30 loss 73.6% | -50% 29.2% | -90% 0.1% | median -30.7% mean -18.0% | p10 -68.2% p90 45.6% | 143 trades | costs 12.9% swap -4.7% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs swing|0.05|1|500 loss 73.1% | -50% 29.4% | -90% 0.1% | median -30.8% mean -17.6% | p10 -68.2% p90 47.2% | 143 trades | costs 12.9% swap -4.7% | capped 0.0% | -0.00 pips/trade before costs swing|0.05|2|30 loss 80.0% | -50% 37.5% | -90% 0.3% | median -39.3% mean -28.0% | p10 -72.2% p90 28.6% | 143 trades | costs 24.1% swap -4.4% | capped 0.0% | 0.06 pips/trade before costs swing|0.05|2|500 loss 80.6% | -50% 37.9% | -90% 0.3% | median -40.1% mean -28.4% | p10 -72.6% p90 29.3% | 143 trades | costs 24.1% swap -4.4% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs swing|0.1|1|30 loss 82.4% | -50% 63.5% | -90% 16.5% | median -67.0% mean -31.5% | p10 -93.2% p90 55.4% | 143 trades | costs 23.7% swap -8.6% | capped 2.8% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs swing|0.1|1|500 loss 82.2% | -50% 62.8% | -90% 16.2% | median -66.1% mean -32.1% | p10 -93.3% p90 51.8% | 143 trades | costs 23.7% swap -8.7% | capped 0.0% | 0.01 pips/trade before costs swing|0.1|2|30 loss 87.4% | -50% 71.6% | -90% 23.2% | median -75.0% mean -48.7% | p10 -94.9% p90 18.0% | 143 trades | costs 41.2% swap -7.6% | capped 2.8% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs swing|0.1|2|500 loss 87.7% | -50% 71.2% | -90% 22.9% | median -74.7% mean -48.9% | p10 -94.9% p90 15.6% | 143 trades | costs 41.3% swap -7.6% | capped 0.0% | 0.00 pips/trade before costs scalper|0.01|0|500 loss 73.0% | -50% 33.7% | -90% 0.7% | median -33.6% mean -18.0% | p10 -72.6% p90 53.9% | 3982 trades | costs 0.0% swap -8.1% | capped 0.0% | -0.02 pips/trade before costs day|0.01|0|500 loss 61.2% | -50% 2.0% | -90% 0.0% | median -7.9% mean -4.0% | p10 -36.7% p90 33.5% | 833 trades | costs 0.0% swap -3.7% | capped 0.0% | -0.01 pips/trade before costs swing|0.01|0|500 loss 56.2% | -50% 0.0% | -90% 0.0% | median -1.8% mean -1.2% | p10 -15.5% p90 14.0% | 143 trades | costs 0.0% swap -1.0% | capped 0.0% | -0.05 pips/trade before costs by year, day trader, 1% risk, 1 pip, 30:1 (share of traders ending the year with a loss): 2005 98.7% | 2006 98.4% | 2007 97.7% | 2008 99.6% | 2009 99.3% | 2010 99.3% | 2011 99.1% | 2012 99.2% | 2013 98.3% | 2014 98.6% | 2015 99.3% | 2016 98.2% | 2017 98.6% | 2018 98.0% | 2019 96.8% | 2020 98.8% | 2021 98.2% | 2022 98.4% | 2023 98.2% | 2024 97.4% | 2025 98.3% run time 137 s