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Prop-firm evaluation simulator

How likely is a trader to pass an evaluation with these rules? Set the rules, set the trader, and run thousands of simulated attempts. You can enter the account size, profit target, maximum loss (static or trailing), daily loss limit, minimum trading days, time limit and fee, then the trader's risk per trade, reward-to-risk ratio, trades per day, cost per trade and, if you want, a win rate: the simulator estimates your chances of passing the prop firm challenge and the expected fees per pass. Part of Prop-Firm Evaluation Odds.

1The evaluation rules

Start from a common rule type (one click fills the rules and runs it), then change any number:

Generic rule types from our guide How to Pass a Prop Firm Challenge, not any firm's rules. Your trader settings below are kept.

Account size ($)

Profit target ($)

Maximum loss ($)

Loss limit type

Daily loss limit ($, 0 = none)

Minimum trading days

Time limit (trading days; 0 = none, stopped at 500)

Fee per attempt ($, optional)

2The trader

Risk per trade ($)

Reward : risk ratio

Trades per day

Cost per trade ($)

Win rate (%)

Simulated attempts

Use my own win rate. Left unticked, the trader has no edge before costs: win rate = 1 / (1 + reward:risk).

Probability of passing

–

Breached–

Expired (time limit)–

Still open at 500 days–

Median days to pass (passed only)–

Edge per trade–

Attempts per pass–

?How it works, and what it leaves out

Each attempt plays trades one after another: a win adds the reward, a loss subtracts the risk, and the cost is taken off every trade.
A trailing loss limit follows your highest balance (end-of-day or intraday) and stops rising once it reaches the starting balance. A daily loss limit ends the attempt as soon as it is hit.
The profit target is checked at the end of each day, after the minimum trading days.
Loss limits are checked on the balance after each closed trade, not on open equity as prices move. A dip inside a trade is not seen, and an intraday trailing floor does not rise with unrealised profit. Both would only add breaches, so if a firm measures open equity, its real pass rate is the same or lower than shown here.
Every attempt ends as passed, breached, expired (the time limit ran out first) or still open (no time limit, and neither passed nor breached after 500 trading days, where the simulation stops). Only passed attempts count as passes; each of the others is a paid attempt in the fee figures.
The 95% interval shows only the randomness of the simulation; it says nothing about whether the rules match a real firm's. The median days to pass count only the attempts that passed.
Not modelled: the funded stage and payouts, consistency rules, scaling, news restrictions, resets, real firms' actual rules and prices, and the lumpiness of real trading. Check any firm's current rules before paying for anything.
Cost per trade defaults to commission only, about 2.9% of the default $200 reference risk; raise it to see what slippage does.

Educational only, not financial advice. Nothing you enter leaves your browser.